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Papiermacher Düren

Founded 1951 in Düren

Rur-Halle, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Papiermacher Düren's wins match its points

+0.8 wins

Papiermacher Düren's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

4.2Points say

66.9Scored a game

70.5Allowed a game

−3.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	870
Points allowed	917
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0540
To the power of 14	2.0888
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.0888)	32.37%
× 13 games played	4.21
Wins the points say	4.2 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Papiermacher Düren won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

43.5 %

Papiermacher Düren shoot 43.5 % effective. The league shoots 48.0 %. That is 14th of 14.

PMD 43.5 %

League 48.0 %

How we counted it

Papiermacher Düren: (329 + ½ × 88) ÷ 858	43.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Weak on the glass

21.8 %

Papiermacher Düren win back 21.8 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.9 %. That is 13th of 14.

PMD 21.8 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Papiermacher Düren: 109 ÷ (109 + 391)	21.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

92.3

Papiermacher Düren score 92.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 100.5. That is 12th of 14.

PMD 92.3

League 100.5

How we counted it

100 × 870 points ÷ 943 possessions	92.3
League mean, 14 clubs	100.5
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Gregor Hein

#44 · SG

52/121shots

120points

+7.3vs expected

How we counted it

52 made of 121, 16 of them threes	52/121
Points: 2 × 52 + 16	120
His shots are worth (expected)	112.7
Above expected	120 − 112.7 = +7.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 14th of 14

PMD 43.5 %

League 48.0 %

How we counted it

Papiermacher Düren: (329 + ½ × 88) ÷ 858	43.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 14

PMD 15.6 %

League 16.2 %

How we counted it

Papiermacher Düren: 147 ÷ 943 possessions	15.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 13th of 14

PMD 21.8 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Papiermacher Düren: 109 ÷ (109 + 391)	21.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 14

PMD 19.5 %

League 19.7 %

How we counted it

Papiermacher Düren: 167 tries ÷ 858 shots	19.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−24.3

Over 6 games Papiermacher Düren's shots were worth 358.3 points and they scored 334 from the floor: 4.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−24.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 146 + 42	334
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	358.3
Shot-making	−24.3
A game	−4.05

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Papiermacher Düren
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive43 % of 231 league shots	13	0.86	11.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 339	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 339	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	9	0.73	6.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot35 % of 223 league shots	21	0.70	14.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 293	5	0.71	3.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 293	3	0.71	2.1
Mid-range · Pull-up34 % of 389 league shots	31	0.67	20.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 527	5	0.68	3.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 527	5	0.68	3.4
Rim · Drive58 % of 876 league shots	64	1.16	73.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 325	11	1.17	12.9
Rim · Drive · fast break59 % of 264 league shots	22	1.18	26.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 325	3	1.17	3.5
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	8	1.18	9.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	2	1.18	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	8	0.89	7.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	2	0.89	1.8
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	2	0.89	1.8
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 412 league shots	101	0.91	91.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance27 % of 253 league shots	14	0.81	11.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 857	11	0.90	9.9
Three · Pull-up27 % of 249 league shots	15	0.81	12.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	2	0.85	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	1	0.85	0.8
Total adds up	382	0.94	358.3

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Where Papiermacher Düren shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

382 of 382 shots shown

38.2%

146 of 382 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 65 / 129 50% · avg 1.9 ft 28 of the 65 makes assisted league 60% 130pts

MID 39 / 97 40% · avg 14.5 ft 17 of the 39 makes assisted league 36% 78pts

THREE 42 / 156 27% · avg 25.1 ft 38 of the 42 makes assisted league 31% 126pts

146 of 382 from the floor, 334 points, + 68 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

83 of 146 makes were assisted (57%): 28 + 17 + 38.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Papiermacher Düren

34% 25% 41%

League

33% 24% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Papiermacher Düren

33% 45% 18%

League

33% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Papiermacher Düren: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	127 drives + 18 post-ups + 170 catch and shoot + 67 pull-ups = 382

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gregor Hein SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

52/121 shots 112.7 expected 120 scored ▲ +7.3

Maximilian Bosede PF 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 1

19/51 shots 48.7 expected 44 scored ▼ −4.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.