Manage a club, start free

Papirničarji Radeče

Founded 1994 in Radeče

Dvorana pod Svibnom, holding 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Where the points say

Papirničarji Radeče's wins match its points

−0.2 wins

Papirničarji Radeče's points say about 7 wins in 18 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

7.2Points say

72.0Scored a game

74.2Allowed a game

−2.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 296
Points allowed	1 335
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0301
To the power of 14	1.5145
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.5145)	39.77%
× 18 games played	7.16
Wins the points say	7.2 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Papirničarji Radeče won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Weakness

A leaky defence

105.0

Papirničarji Radeče let in 105.0 per 100 trips against the league's 99.8. Lower is better: 10th of 10.

PAR 105.0

League 99.8

How we counted it

100 × 1 335 allowed ÷ 1 272 possessions	105.0
League mean, 10 clubs	99.8
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Strength

Strong on the glass

28.9 %

Papirničarji Radeče win back 28.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.5 %. That is 1st of 10.

PAR 28.9 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Papirničarji Radeče: 202 ÷ (202 + 497)	28.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Weakness

Cold shooting

46.0 %

Papirničarji Radeče shoot 46.0 % effective. The league shoots 47.2 %. That is 8th of 10.

PAR 46.0 %

League 47.2 %

How we counted it

Papirničarji Radeče: (485 + ½ × 153) ÷ 1 221	46.0 %
League mean, 10 clubs	47.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Best shot-maker

Rhys Prescott

#56 · SG

36/79shots

83points

+8.4vs expected

How we counted it

36 made of 79, 11 of them threes	36/79
Points: 2 × 36 + 11	83
His shots are worth (expected)	74.6
Above expected	83 − 74.6 = +8.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 10

PAR 46.0 %

League 47.2 %

How we counted it

Papirničarji Radeče: (485 + ½ × 153) ÷ 1 221	46.0 %
League mean, 10 clubs	47.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 10

PAR 14.8 %

League 15.5 %

How we counted it

Papirničarji Radeče: 189 ÷ 1 280 possessions	14.8 %
League mean, 10 clubs	15.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 10

PAR 28.9 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Papirničarji Radeče: 202 ÷ (202 + 497)	28.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 10

PAR 20.9 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Papirničarji Radeče: 255 tries ÷ 1 221 shots	20.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−19.9

Over 8 games Papirničarji Radeče's shots were worth 488.9 points and they scored 469 from the floor: 2.5 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−19.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 206 + 57	469
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	488.9
Shot-making	−19.9
A game	−2.49

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Papirničarji Radeče
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 228 league shots	14	0.75	10.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	5	0.75	3.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	13	0.70	9.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	5	0.70	3.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot33 % of 217 league shots	11	0.66	7.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 287	5	0.66	3.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 287	3	0.66	2.0
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 378 league shots	45	0.75	33.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	9	0.73	6.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 852 league shots	98	1.18	115.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 290	19	1.21	23.0
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 254 league shots	26	1.27	33.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 290	4	1.21	4.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	16	1.20	19.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	6	1.20	7.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	7	0.84	5.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	4	0.84	3.4
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	2	0.84	1.7
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	1	0.84	0.8
Three · Catch and shoot28 % of 1 274 league shots	126	0.85	106.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance29 % of 214 league shots	16	0.88	14.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 1 673	19	0.83	15.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 1 673	2	0.83	1.7
Three · Pull-up30 % of 276 league shots	31	0.90	28.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 357	6	0.87	5.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 357	4	0.87	3.5
Total adds up	515	0.95	488.9

⁠

Where Papirničarji Radeče shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

515 of 515 shots shown

40.0%

206 of 515 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 111 / 183 61% · avg 1.9 ft 54 of the 111 makes assisted league 60% 222pts

MID 38 / 114 33% · avg 14.5 ft 15 of the 38 makes assisted league 34% 76pts

THREE 57 / 218 26% · avg 25.2 ft 44 of the 57 makes assisted league 30% 171pts

206 of 515 from the floor, 469 points, + 97 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

113 of 206 makes were assisted (55%): 54 + 15 + 44.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Papirničarji Radeče

36% 22% 42%

League

33% 25% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Papirničarji Radeče

35% 37% 20%

League

34% 42% 18%

Papirničarji Radeče lean on post-ups: 7.6 % of its shots against the league's 5.8 %.

How we counted it

Papirničarji Radeče: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	180 drives + 39 post-ups + 192 catch and shoot + 104 pull-ups = 515

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Rhys Prescott SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

36/79 shots 74.6 expected 83 scored ▲ +8.4

Jan Dolenc PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

44/108 shots 99.6 expected 106 scored ▲ +6.4

Andraž Brglez PF 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/95 shots 89.9 expected 92 scored ▲ +2.1

Borivoje Štern SG 20 y

Modest21–40

Age: 20
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 2

25/67 shots 64.0 expected 55 scored ▼ −9.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.