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Paprikari Temerin

Founded 1982 in Temerin

Dvorana kod Jegričke, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Paprikari Temerin's wins match its points

+0.8 wins

Paprikari Temerin's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

6.2Points say

75.1Scored a game

75.6Allowed a game

−0.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	976
Points allowed	983
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0072
To the power of 14	1.1052
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1052)	47.50%
× 13 games played	6.18
Wins the points say	6.2 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Paprikari Temerin won 1 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

102.6

Paprikari Temerin score 102.6 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.5. That is 11th of 14.

PAT 102.6

League 105.5

How we counted it

100 × 976 points ÷ 951 possessions	102.6
League mean, 14 clubs	105.5
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Strength

A solid defence

103.0

Paprikari Temerin let in 103.0 per 100 trips against the league's 105.5. Lower is better: 4th of 14.

PAT 103.0

League 105.5

How we counted it

100 × 983 allowed ÷ 954 possessions	103.0
League mean, 14 clubs	105.5
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

27.5

Paprikari Temerin attempt 27.5 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 24.7, so 4th of 14.

PAT 27.5 %

League 24.7 %

How we counted it

Paprikari Temerin: 229 tries ÷ 833 shots	27.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Best shot-maker

David Čumić

#29 · PG

39/71shots

84points

+9.0vs expected

How we counted it

39 made of 71, 6 of them threes	39/71
Points: 2 × 39 + 6	84
His shots are worth (expected)	75.0
Above expected	84 − 75.0 = +9.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 10th of 14

PAT 50.1 %

League 50.8 %

How we counted it

Paprikari Temerin: (355 + ½ × 124) ÷ 833	50.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 14

PAT 16.9 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Paprikari Temerin: 161 ÷ 951 possessions	16.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 14

PAT 26.5 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Paprikari Temerin: 125 ÷ (125 + 347)	26.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 14

PAT 27.5 %

League 24.7 %

How we counted it

Paprikari Temerin: 229 tries ÷ 833 shots	27.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−0.7

Over 6 games Paprikari Temerin's shots were worth 390.7 points and they scored 390 from the floor: 0.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−0.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 165 + 60	390
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	390.7
Shot-making	−0.7
A game	−0.11

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Paprikari Temerin
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 278	21	0.72	15.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 278	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 278	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 168	6	0.73	4.4
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 248	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 248	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 380 league shots	25	0.76	19.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 507	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 507	5	0.77	3.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 507	1	0.77	0.8
Rim · Drive63 % of 893 league shots	65	1.25	81.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 358	12	1.25	15.1
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 289 league shots	21	1.35	28.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 358	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 206	8	1.21	9.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 206	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 206	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 206	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 253	10	1.19	11.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 253	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 253	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 924	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 924	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 240	10	1.01	10.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 240	2	1.01	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 1 286 league shots	89	1.01	89.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 702	21	1.00	21.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 702	16	1.00	16.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 702	4	1.00	4.0
Three · Pull-up35 % of 274 league shots	28	1.06	29.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 367	3	1.10	3.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 367	1	1.10	1.1
Total adds up	373	1.05	390.7

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Where Paprikari Temerin shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

373 of 373 shots shown

44.2%

165 of 373 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 78 / 127 61% · avg 1.9 ft 38 of the 78 makes assisted league 60% 156pts

MID 27 / 72 38% · avg 14.3 ft 13 of the 27 makes assisted league 37% 54pts

THREE 60 / 174 35% · avg 25.1 ft 52 of the 60 makes assisted league 33% 180pts

165 of 373 from the floor, 390 points, + 82 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

103 of 165 makes were assisted (62%): 38 + 13 + 52.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Paprikari Temerin

34% 19% 47%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Paprikari Temerin

37% 40% 19%

League

34% 41% 18%

How we counted it

Paprikari Temerin: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	137 drives + 17 post-ups + 148 catch and shoot + 71 pull-ups = 373

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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David Čumić PG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

39/71 shots 75.0 expected 84 scored ▲ +9.0

Ugo Franck SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/65 shots 68.0 expected 76 scored ▲ +8.0

Yanis Salami SG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

42/100 shots 104.2 expected 105 scored ▲ +0.8

César Albelda PF 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

17/57 shots 57.6 expected 40 scored ▼ −17.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.