Manage a club, start free

Pastelliers Albi

Founded 1971 in Albi

Salle du Tarn, holding 1 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Ahead of its points

Pastelliers Albi's wins run ahead of its points

+3.0 wins

Pastelliers Albi's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 8. The table has been a little kind.

8Wins so far

5.0Points say

76.1Scored a game

78.6Allowed a game

−2.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	989
Points allowed	1 022
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0334
To the power of 14	1.5833
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.5833)	38.71%
× 13 games played	5.03
Wins the points say	5.0 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	+3.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pastelliers Albi won 2 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

33.8

Pastelliers Albi attempt 33.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 24.8, so 1st of 14.

PAA 33.8 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Pastelliers Albi: 275 tries ÷ 814 shots	33.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

A leaky defence

109.1

Pastelliers Albi let in 109.1 per 100 trips against the league's 104.1. Lower is better: 13th of 14.

PAA 109.1

League 104.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 022 allowed ÷ 937 possessions	109.1
League mean, 14 clubs	104.1
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

47.9 %

Pastelliers Albi shoot 47.9 % effective. The league shoots 50.6 %. That is 13th of 14.

PAA 47.9 %

League 50.6 %

How we counted it

Pastelliers Albi: (347 + ½ × 86) ÷ 814	47.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Best shot-maker

Sotirios Haller

#63 · PG

33/73shots

77points

+0.6vs expected

How we counted it

33 made of 73, 11 of them threes	33/73
Points: 2 × 33 + 11	77
His shots are worth (expected)	76.4
Above expected	77 − 76.4 = +0.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

PAA 47.9 %

League 50.6 %

How we counted it

Pastelliers Albi: (347 + ½ × 86) ÷ 814	47.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 14

PAA 17.5 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Pastelliers Albi: 166 ÷ 946 possessions	17.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 14

PAA 28.8 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Pastelliers Albi: 132 ÷ (132 + 327)	28.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 14

PAA 33.8 %

League 24.8 %

How we counted it

Pastelliers Albi: 275 tries ÷ 814 shots	33.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−48.2

Over 6 games Pastelliers Albi's shots were worth 365.2 points and they scored 317 from the floor: 8.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−48.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 138 + 41	317
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	365.2
Shot-making	−48.2
A game	−8.03

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Pastelliers Albi
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 286	12	0.90	10.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 286	3	0.90	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 286	5	0.90	4.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 169	10	0.75	7.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 169	1	0.75	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 212 league shots	6	0.77	4.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 273	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up31 % of 369 league shots	22	0.62	13.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 463	2	0.64	1.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 463	3	0.64	1.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 463	1	0.64	0.6
Rim · Drive59 % of 824 league shots	56	1.19	66.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 291	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Drive · fast break59 % of 292 league shots	20	1.18	23.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 291	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	19	1.21	23.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 210	14	1.26	17.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 210	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 210	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 210	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 798	5	1.21	6.1
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 323	6	1.00	6.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 323	1	1.00	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 372 league shots	87	0.99	86.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance39 % of 231 league shots	20	1.18	23.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 827	13	1.03	13.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 1 827	3	1.03	3.1
Three · Pull-up29 % of 269 league shots	17	0.86	14.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 355	3	0.85	2.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 355	2	0.85	1.7
Total adds up	354	1.03	365.2

⁠

Where Pastelliers Albi shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

354 of 354 shots shown

39.0%

138 of 354 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 76 / 136 56% · avg 2.1 ft 37 of the 76 makes assisted league 61% 152pts

MID 21 / 66 32% · avg 14.4 ft 13 of the 21 makes assisted league 38% 42pts

THREE 41 / 152 27% · avg 25.3 ft 35 of the 41 makes assisted league 33% 123pts

138 of 354 from the floor, 317 points, + 98 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

85 of 138 makes were assisted (62%): 37 + 13 + 35.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pastelliers Albi

38% 19% 43%

League

34% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pastelliers Albi

32% 10% 42% 16%

League

32% 44% 17%

Pastelliers Albi lean on post-ups: 9.6 % of its shots against the league's 6.7 %.

How we counted it

Pastelliers Albi: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	115 drives + 34 post-ups + 150 catch and shoot + 55 pull-ups = 354

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Sotirios Haller Injured PG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.8
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/73 shots 76.4 expected 77 scored ▲ +0.6

Gabriel Aroyewun SG 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

46/112 shots 114.5 expected 107 scored ▼ −7.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.