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Pazaria Komotini

Founded 1968 in Komotini

Gymnastirio tou Rologiou Pazariou, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Pazaria Komotini's wins run ahead of its points

+1.3 wins

Pazaria Komotini's points say about 10 wins in 15 league games. It has 11. The table has been a little kind.

11Wins so far

9.7Points say

88.4Scored a game

84.7Allowed a game

+3.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 326
Points allowed	1 271
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9585
To the power of 14	0.5526
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5526)	64.41%
× 15 games played	9.66
Wins the points say	9.7 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	+1.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pazaria Komotini won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Hot shooting

57.9 %

Pazaria Komotini shoot 57.9 % effective. The league shoots 54.3 %. That is 1st of 16.

PAK 57.9 %

League 54.3 %

How we counted it

Pazaria Komotini: (496 + ½ × 149) ÷ 985	57.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	54.3 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Strength

Strong on the glass

30.0 %

Pazaria Komotini win back 30.0 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.9 %. That is 1st of 16.

PAK 30.0 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Pazaria Komotini: 144 ÷ (144 + 336)	30.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Strength

A strong attack

118.0

Pazaria Komotini score 118.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 113.0. That is 4th of 16.

PAK 118.0

League 113.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 326 points ÷ 1 124 possessions	118.0
League mean, 16 clubs	113.0
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Best shot-maker

Pantelis Mašić

#40 · PG

57/95shots

126points

+21.4vs expected

How we counted it

57 made of 95, 12 of them threes	57/95
Points: 2 × 57 + 12	126
His shots are worth (expected)	104.6
Above expected	126 − 104.6 = +21.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 16

PAK 57.9 %

League 54.3 %

How we counted it

Pazaria Komotini: (496 + ½ × 149) ÷ 985	57.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	54.3 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 13th of 16

PAK 18.0 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Pazaria Komotini: 202 ÷ 1 124 possessions	18.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	13th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 16

PAK 30.0 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Pazaria Komotini: 144 ÷ (144 + 336)	30.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 16

PAK 26.3 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Pazaria Komotini: 259 tries ÷ 985 shots	26.3 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	10th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+24.0

Over 6 games Pazaria Komotini's shots were worth 407.0 points and they scored 431 from the floor: 4.0 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+24.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 189 + 53	431
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	407.0
Shot-making	+24.0
A game	+4.01

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Pazaria Komotini
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 224 league shots	18	0.79	14.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 307	2	0.82	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 307	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	8	0.84	6.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 209 league shots	11	0.80	8.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 268	3	0.87	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 268	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 268	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up44 % of 436 league shots	24	0.89	21.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	6	0.86	5.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	1	0.86	0.9
Rim · Drive63 % of 936 league shots	63	1.26	79.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 508	9	1.24	11.2
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 357 league shots	20	1.23	24.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 508	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up58 % of 245 league shots	21	1.16	24.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 300	2	1.13	2.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 300	3	1.13	3.4
Rim · Catch and shoot62 % of 221 league shots	13	1.23	16.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	7	1.23	8.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	2	1.23	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	11	1.13	12.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	3	1.13	3.4
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 690	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 466 league shots	80	1.04	83.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 235 league shots	15	1.11	16.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break38 % of 258 league shots	14	1.14	16.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 012	2	1.07	2.1
Three · Pull-up33 % of 330 league shots	15	0.98	14.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	1	0.99	1.0
Total adds up	377	1.08	407.0

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Where Pazaria Komotini shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

442 of 442 shots shown

50.7%

224 of 442 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 113 / 177 64% · avg 2.1 ft 65 of the 113 makes assisted league 63% 226pts

MID 47 / 94 50% · avg 14.5 ft 18 of the 47 makes assisted league 41% 94pts

THREE 64 / 171 37% · avg 25.2 ft 59 of the 64 makes assisted league 36% 192pts

224 of 442 from the floor, 512 points, + 105 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

142 of 224 makes were assisted (63%): 65 + 18 + 59.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pazaria Komotini

40% 22% 38%

League

36% 21% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pazaria Komotini

35% 10% 39% 16%

League

32% 41% 19%

Pazaria Komotini lean on post-ups: 10.1 % of its shots against the league's 7.8 %.

How we counted it

Pazaria Komotini: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	133 drives + 38 post-ups + 147 catch and shoot + 59 pull-ups = 377

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Pantelis Mašić PG 33 y

Strong61–80

Age: 33
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

57/95 shots 104.6 expected 126 scored ▲ +21.4

Telemachos Antonijević PF 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 2

22/55 shots 59.3 expected 51 scored ▼ −8.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.