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Pećinari Despotovac

Founded 1991 in Despotovac

Dvorana kod Manasije, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Pećinari Despotovac's wins run ahead of its points

+1.5 wins

Pećinari Despotovac's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little kind.

7Wins so far

5.5Points say

76.7Scored a game

78.4Allowed a game

−1.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	997
Points allowed	1 019
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0221
To the power of 14	1.3574
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.3574)	42.42%
× 13 games played	5.51
Wins the points say	5.5 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pećinari Despotovac won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.3 %

Pećinari Despotovac win back 22.3 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.7 %. That is 12th of 14.

PED 22.3 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Pećinari Despotovac: 101 ÷ (101 + 351)	22.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

29.8

Pećinari Despotovac attempt 29.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 25.1, so 3rd of 14.

PED 29.8 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Pećinari Despotovac: 243 tries ÷ 816 shots	29.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

102.3

Pećinari Despotovac score 102.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.6. That is 10th of 14.

PED 102.3

League 103.6

How we counted it

100 × 997 points ÷ 975 possessions	102.3
League mean, 14 clubs	103.6
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Best shot-maker

Danko Čabrić

#0 · SG

40/72shots

94points

+23.5vs expected

How we counted it

40 made of 72, 14 of them threes	40/72
Points: 2 × 40 + 14	94
His shots are worth (expected)	70.5
Above expected	94 − 70.5 = +23.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 14

PED 50.4 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Pećinari Despotovac: (354 + ½ × 114) ÷ 816	50.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 14

PED 17.4 %

League 17.4 %

How we counted it

Pećinari Despotovac: 170 ÷ 975 possessions	17.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 12th of 14

PED 22.3 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Pećinari Despotovac: 101 ÷ (101 + 351)	22.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 14

PED 29.8 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Pećinari Despotovac: 243 tries ÷ 816 shots	29.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+4.6

Over 6 games Pećinari Despotovac's shots were worth 340.4 points and they scored 345 from the floor: 0.8 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+4.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 149 + 47	345
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	340.4
Shot-making	+4.6
A game	+0.77

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Pećinari Despotovac
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 224 league shots	19	0.69	13.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	5	0.67	3.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	8	0.71	5.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	3	0.71	2.1
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	2	0.71	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	14	0.86	12.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 391 league shots	32	0.72	22.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	5	0.69	3.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	2	0.69	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	2	0.69	1.4
Rim · Drive60 % of 819 league shots	55	1.19	65.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	10	1.20	12.0
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 267 league shots	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	4	1.21	4.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	10	1.18	11.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	2	1.18	2.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	6	1.21	7.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	7	0.98	6.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 218 league shots	86	0.98	83.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 202 league shots	10	1.02	10.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	13	0.97	12.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 307 league shots	22	0.97	21.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	4	1.00	4.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	1	1.00	1.0
Total adds up	349	0.98	340.4

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Where Pećinari Despotovac shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

349 of 349 shots shown

42.7%

149 of 349 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 68 / 106 64% · avg 2.1 ft 45 of the 68 makes assisted league 61% 136pts

MID 34 / 96 35% · avg 14.4 ft 12 of the 34 makes assisted league 37% 68pts

THREE 47 / 147 32% · avg 25.5 ft 41 of the 47 makes assisted league 32% 141pts

149 of 349 from the floor, 345 points, + 97 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

98 of 149 makes were assisted (66%): 45 + 12 + 41.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pećinari Despotovac

30% 28% 42%

League

35% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pećinari Despotovac

33% 40% 22%

League

33% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Pećinari Despotovac: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	115 drives + 19 post-ups + 139 catch and shoot + 76 pull-ups = 349

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Danko Čabrić SG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

40/72 shots 70.5 expected 94 scored ▲ +23.5

Trifun Gerlach SF 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/67 shots 65.7 expected 82 scored ▲ +16.3

Matija Jeremić SG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

14/52 shots 53.4 expected 35 scored ▼ −18.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.