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Pefka Xylokastro

Founded 1948 in Xylokastro

Gymnastirio tou Pefkias, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Pefka Xylokastro's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Pefka Xylokastro's points say about 8 wins in 13 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

7.5Points say

76.2Scored a game

74.5Allowed a game

+1.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	990
Points allowed	968
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9778
To the power of 14	0.7301
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7301)	57.80%
× 13 games played	7.51
Wins the points say	7.5 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pefka Xylokastro won 1 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Careless with the ball

16.4 %

Pefka Xylokastro give it away on 16.4 % of trips against the league's 15.6 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 14.

PEX 16.4 %

League 15.6 %

How we counted it

Pefka Xylokastro: 156 ÷ 949 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Strength

A strong attack

104.3

Pefka Xylokastro score 104.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 101.1. That is 4th of 14.

PEX 104.3

League 101.1

How we counted it

100 × 990 points ÷ 949 possessions	104.3
League mean, 14 clubs	101.1
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

49.6 %

Pefka Xylokastro shoot 49.6 % effective. The league shoots 48.4 %. That is 5th of 14.

PEX 49.6 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Pefka Xylokastro: (363 + ½ × 123) ÷ 856	49.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Best shot-maker

Vlasios Gür

#46 · SG

54/114shots

130points

+19.0vs expected

How we counted it

54 made of 114, 22 of them threes	54/114
Points: 2 × 54 + 22	130
His shots are worth (expected)	111.0
Above expected	130 − 111.0 = +19.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 14

PEX 49.6 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Pefka Xylokastro: (363 + ½ × 123) ÷ 856	49.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 14

PEX 16.4 %

League 15.6 %

How we counted it

Pefka Xylokastro: 156 ÷ 949 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 14

PEX 26.7 %

League 25.3 %

How we counted it

Pefka Xylokastro: 127 ÷ (127 + 349)	26.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 14

PEX 21.4 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Pefka Xylokastro: 183 tries ÷ 856 shots	21.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+24.1

Over 6 games Pefka Xylokastro's shots were worth 383.9 points and they scored 408 from the floor: 4.0 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+24.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 176 + 56	408
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	383.9
Shot-making	+24.1
A game	+4.01

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Pefka Xylokastro
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive33 % of 223 league shots	21	0.66	13.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 314	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 314	8	0.71	5.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 260	6	0.73	4.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 260	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot32 % of 223 league shots	15	0.65	9.7
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 412 league shots	24	0.80	19.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 521	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 521	1	0.79	0.8
Rim · Drive59 % of 914 league shots	70	1.19	83.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 345	20	1.21	24.2
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 266 league shots	25	1.37	34.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	8	1.20	9.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	6	1.20	7.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 723	3	1.20	3.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 364	10	0.96	9.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 364	1	0.96	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 364	2	0.96	1.9
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 364	1	0.96	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 401 league shots	95	0.97	92.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 240 league shots	16	0.96	15.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 843	18	0.95	17.2
Three · Pull-up31 % of 268 league shots	18	0.93	16.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 366	1	0.93	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 366	2	0.93	1.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 366	1	0.93	0.9
Total adds up	381	1.01	383.9

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Where Pefka Xylokastro shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

381 of 381 shots shown

46.2%

176 of 381 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 87 / 138 63% · avg 2.1 ft 41 of the 87 makes assisted league 60% 174pts

MID 33 / 78 42% · avg 14.4 ft 15 of the 33 makes assisted league 36% 66pts

THREE 56 / 165 34% · avg 25.2 ft 44 of the 56 makes assisted league 31% 168pts

176 of 381 from the floor, 408 points, + 76 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

100 of 176 makes were assisted (57%): 41 + 15 + 44.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pefka Xylokastro

36% 20% 43%

League

32% 24% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pefka Xylokastro

42% 40% 13%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Pefka Xylokastro: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	159 drives + 17 post-ups + 154 catch and shoot + 51 pull-ups = 381

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Vlasios Gür SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

54/114 shots 111.0 expected 130 scored ▲ +19.0

Manolis Öcal PG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 2

28/58 shots 60.0 expected 62 scored ▲ +2.0

Iordanis Manzano Injured SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

25/64 shots 62.1 expected 61 scored ▼ −1.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.