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Peribacaları Nevşehir

Founded 1988 in Nevşehir

Kızılçukur Salonu, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Peribacaları Nevşehir's wins match its points

+0.2 wins

Peribacaları Nevşehir's points say about 10 wins in 18 league games. It has 10. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

10Wins so far

9.8Points say

76.1Scored a game

75.1Allowed a game

+0.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 369
Points allowed	1 352
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9876
To the power of 14	0.8395
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8395)	54.36%
× 18 games played	9.79
Wins the points say	9.8 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	+0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Peribacaları Nevşehir won 4 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

104.8

Peribacaları Nevşehir score 104.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.3. That is 4th of 10.

PEN 104.8

League 103.3

How we counted it

100 × 1 369 points ÷ 1 306 possessions	104.8
League mean, 10 clubs	103.3
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.2 %

Peribacaları Nevşehir give it away on 16.2 % of trips against the league's 16.8 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 10.

PEN 16.2 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Peribacaları Nevşehir: 211 ÷ 1 306 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Weakness

A leaky defence

103.4

Peribacaları Nevşehir let in 103.4 per 100 trips against the league's 103.3. Lower is better: 6th of 10.

PEN 103.4

League 103.3

How we counted it

100 × 1 352 allowed ÷ 1 307 possessions	103.4
League mean, 10 clubs	103.3
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Best shot-maker

Sinan Çalık

#32 · SF

27/56shots

70points

+17.9vs expected

How we counted it

27 made of 56, 16 of them threes	27/56
Points: 2 × 27 + 16	70
His shots are worth (expected)	52.1
Above expected	70 − 52.1 = +17.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 10

PEN 49.7 %

League 49.6 %

How we counted it

Peribacaları Nevşehir: (485 + ½ × 197) ÷ 1 174	49.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	49.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 10

PEN 16.2 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Peribacaları Nevşehir: 211 ÷ 1 306 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 10

PEN 25.9 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Peribacaları Nevşehir: 175 ÷ (175 + 500)	25.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 10

PEN 23.2 %

League 23.6 %

How we counted it

Peribacaları Nevşehir: 272 tries ÷ 1 174 shots	23.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	23.6 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+7.1

Over 8 games Peribacaları Nevşehir's shots were worth 497.9 points and they scored 505 from the floor: 0.9 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+7.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 210 + 85	505
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	497.9
Shot-making	+7.1
A game	+0.89

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Peribacaları Nevşehir
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 206 league shots	19	0.80	15.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 307	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 307	5	0.73	3.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 307	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 202	7	0.72	5.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 202	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 265	21	0.67	14.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 265	3	0.67	2.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 265	3	0.67	2.0
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 361 league shots	40	0.76	30.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 491	8	0.75	6.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 491	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 491	1	0.75	0.8
Rim · Drive60 % of 847 league shots	73	1.19	87.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	12	1.22	14.7
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 243 league shots	21	1.27	26.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	10	1.21	12.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 218	14	1.15	16.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 218	4	1.15	4.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 218	5	1.15	5.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	7	1.21	8.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	3	1.21	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 767	1	1.21	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 146	4	0.95	3.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 146	2	0.95	1.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 146	3	0.95	2.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 146	4	0.95	3.8
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 255 league shots	148	0.93	137.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 230 league shots	26	0.98	25.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 693	17	0.97	16.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 693	2	0.97	1.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 259 league shots	32	0.89	28.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 336	3	0.89	2.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 336	1	0.89	0.9
Total adds up	513	0.97	497.9

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Where Peribacaları Nevşehir shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

513 of 513 shots shown

40.9%

210 of 513 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 89 / 156 57% · avg 2.0 ft 48 of the 89 makes assisted league 60% 178pts

MID 36 / 115 31% · avg 14.1 ft 19 of the 36 makes assisted league 37% 72pts

THREE 85 / 242 35% · avg 25.3 ft 76 of the 85 makes assisted league 32% 255pts

210 of 513 from the floor, 505 points, + 92 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

143 of 210 makes were assisted (68%): 48 + 19 + 76.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Peribacaları Nevşehir

30% 22% 47%

League

35% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Peribacaları Nevşehir

28% 47% 19%

League

33% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Peribacaları Nevşehir: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	145 drives + 27 post-ups + 243 catch and shoot + 98 pull-ups = 513

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Sinan Çalık SF 35 y

Solid41–60

Age: 35
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

27/56 shots 52.1 expected 70 scored ▲ +17.9

Cavit Pekmez PF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/77 shots 73.3 expected 88 scored ▲ +14.7

Edgar Bardin SG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/55 shots 55.7 expected 56 scored ▲ +0.3

Hasan Nazlı SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/66 shots 64.6 expected 62 scored ▼ −2.6

Alex Conner SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/88 shots 86.0 expected 77 scored ▼ −9.0

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Alperen Taşkın PG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/91 shots 87.3 expected 71 scored ▼ −16.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.