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Picadores Mieres

Founded 1952 in Mieres

Pabellón del Caudal, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Picadores Mieres's wins match its points

+0.3 wins

Picadores Mieres's points say about 7 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

6.7Points say

74.2Scored a game

73.9Allowed a game

+0.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	965
Points allowed	961
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9959
To the power of 14	0.9435
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.9435)	51.45%
× 13 games played	6.69
Wins the points say	6.7 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Picadores Mieres won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Few trips to the line

17.7

Picadores Mieres attempt 17.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 21.1, so 13th of 14.

PMI 17.7 %

League 21.1 %

How we counted it

Picadores Mieres: 153 tries ÷ 865 shots	17.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

49.2 %

Picadores Mieres shoot 49.2 % effective. The league shoots 48.9 %. That is 5th of 14.

PMI 49.2 %

League 48.9 %

How we counted it

Picadores Mieres: (361 + ½ × 130) ÷ 865	49.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Strength

A strong attack

102.9

Picadores Mieres score 102.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 102.3. That is 7th of 14.

PMI 102.9

League 102.3

How we counted it

100 × 965 points ÷ 938 possessions	102.9
League mean, 14 clubs	102.3
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Best shot-maker

Filotas Dokuz

#71 · SG

60/149shots

150points

+10.7vs expected

How we counted it

60 made of 149, 30 of them threes	60/149
Points: 2 × 60 + 30	150
His shots are worth (expected)	139.3
Above expected	150 − 139.3 = +10.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 14

PMI 49.2 %

League 48.9 %

How we counted it

Picadores Mieres: (361 + ½ × 130) ÷ 865	49.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 14

PMI 15.4 %

League 16.1 %

How we counted it

Picadores Mieres: 144 ÷ 938 possessions	15.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 14

PMI 25.8 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Picadores Mieres: 127 ÷ (127 + 366)	25.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 13th of 14

PMI 17.7 %

League 21.1 %

How we counted it

Picadores Mieres: 153 tries ÷ 865 shots	17.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+5.6

Over 6 games Picadores Mieres's shots were worth 367.4 points and they scored 373 from the floor: 0.9 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+5.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 157 + 59	373
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	367.4
Shot-making	+5.6
A game	+0.94

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Picadores Mieres
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive45 % of 234 league shots	12	0.91	10.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 331	4	0.83	3.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 331	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 209	6	0.74	4.5
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 267	21	0.77	16.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 267	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 267	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Pull-up33 % of 359 league shots	20	0.66	13.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 469	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 469	5	0.70	3.5
Rim · Drive60 % of 932 league shots	66	1.19	78.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 361	9	1.21	10.9
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 244 league shots	19	1.31	24.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 361	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	12	1.23	14.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	5	1.23	6.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 803	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 381	3	0.90	2.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 381	2	0.90	1.8
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 430 league shots	104	0.90	93.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance26 % of 265 league shots	24	0.79	19.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 901	14	0.89	12.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 901	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Pull-up31 % of 277 league shots	25	0.92	23.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 352	3	0.90	2.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 352	1	0.90	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 352	1	0.90	0.9
Total adds up	379	0.97	367.4

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Where Picadores Mieres shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

379 of 379 shots shown

41.4%

157 of 379 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 67 / 123 55% · avg 1.9 ft 38 of the 67 makes assisted league 61% 134pts

MID 31 / 78 40% · avg 14.6 ft 17 of the 31 makes assisted league 39% 62pts

THREE 59 / 178 33% · avg 25.2 ft 54 of the 59 makes assisted league 30% 177pts

157 of 379 from the floor, 373 points, + 57 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

109 of 157 makes were assisted (69%): 38 + 17 + 54.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Picadores Mieres

32% 21% 47%

League

33% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Picadores Mieres

32% 46% 16%

League

34% 43% 17%

How we counted it

Picadores Mieres: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	120 drives + 21 post-ups + 176 catch and shoot + 62 pull-ups = 379

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Filotas Dokuz SG 34 y

Solid41–60

Age: 34
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

60/149 shots 139.3 expected 150 scored ▲ +10.7

Biel Alvarado PG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/70 shots 68.0 expected 67 scored ▼ −1.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.