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Pigades Drama

Founded 1972 in Drama

Gymnastirio tis Agias Varvaras, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Pigades Drama's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Pigades Drama's points say about 11 wins in 15 league games. It has 11. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

11Wins so far

11.0Points say

86.0Scored a game

80.1Allowed a game

+5.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 290
Points allowed	1 201
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9310
To the power of 14	0.3676
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3676)	73.12%
× 15 games played	10.97
Wins the points say	11.0 adds up

Wins so far	11
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pigades Drama won 3 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

109.5

Pigades Drama let in 109.5 per 100 trips against the league's 113.0. Lower is better: 3rd of 16.

PID 109.5

League 113.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 201 allowed ÷ 1 097 possessions	109.5
League mean, 16 clubs	113.0
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

Strength

Hot shooting

56.3 %

Pigades Drama shoot 56.3 % effective. The league shoots 54.3 %. That is 3rd of 16.

PID 56.3 %

League 54.3 %

How we counted it

Pigades Drama: (461 + ½ × 183) ÷ 981	56.3 %
League mean, 16 clubs	54.3 %
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

Strength

Strong on the glass

28.9 %

Pigades Drama win back 28.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.9 %. That is 4th of 16.

PID 28.9 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Pigades Drama: 143 ÷ (143 + 351)	28.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Best shot-maker

Haralambos Popović

#8 · SG

50/82shots

124points

+36.8vs expected

How we counted it

50 made of 82, 24 of them threes	50/82
Points: 2 × 50 + 24	124
His shots are worth (expected)	87.2
Above expected	124 − 87.2 = +36.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 16

PID 56.3 %

League 54.3 %

How we counted it

Pigades Drama: (461 + ½ × 183) ÷ 981	56.3 %
League mean, 16 clubs	54.3 %
Rank, 16 clubs	3rd of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 16

PID 16.9 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Pigades Drama: 185 ÷ 1 097 possessions	16.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	8th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 16

PID 28.9 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Pigades Drama: 143 ÷ (143 + 351)	28.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 13th of 16

PID 24.3 %

League 27.0 %

How we counted it

Pigades Drama: 238 tries ÷ 981 shots	24.3 %
League mean, 16 clubs	27.0 %
Rank, 16 clubs	13th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+7.4

Over 6 games Pigades Drama's shots were worth 410.6 points and they scored 418 from the floor: 1.2 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+7.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 174 + 70	418
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	410.6
Shot-making	+7.4
A game	+1.23

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Pigades Drama
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 224 league shots	12	0.79	9.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 307	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	7	0.84	5.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	3	0.84	2.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	1	0.84	0.9
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 42 % of 1 352	1	0.84	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 209 league shots	8	0.80	6.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 268	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 268	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up44 % of 436 league shots	23	0.89	20.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 603	5	0.86	4.3
Rim · Drive63 % of 936 league shots	52	1.26	65.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 508	8	1.24	9.9
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 357 league shots	25	1.23	30.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 508	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up58 % of 245 league shots	13	1.16	15.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 300	3	1.13	3.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 56 % of 300	1	1.13	1.1
Rim · Catch and shoot62 % of 221 league shots	6	1.23	7.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 339	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	5	1.23	6.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 309	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	11	1.13	12.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 220	5	1.13	5.7
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 690	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 466 league shots	97	1.04	100.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 235 league shots	19	1.11	21.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break38 % of 258 league shots	21	1.14	23.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 012	4	1.07	4.3
Three · Pull-up33 % of 330 league shots	24	0.98	23.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	4	0.99	4.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 439	1	0.99	1.0
Total adds up	381	1.08	410.6

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Where Pigades Drama shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

447 of 447 shots shown

46.8%

209 of 447 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 90 / 153 59% · avg 2.0 ft 47 of the 90 makes assisted league 63% 180pts

MID 40 / 88 46% · avg 14.3 ft 21 of the 40 makes assisted league 41% 80pts

THREE 79 / 206 38% · avg 25.4 ft 75 of the 79 makes assisted league 36% 237pts

209 of 447 from the floor, 497 points, + 95 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

143 of 209 makes were assisted (68%): 47 + 21 + 75.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pigades Drama

33% 18% 50%

League

36% 21% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pigades Drama

31% 8% 43% 18%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Pigades Drama: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	118 drives + 31 post-ups + 165 catch and shoot + 67 pull-ups = 381

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Haralambos Popović SG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

50/82 shots 87.2 expected 124 scored ▲ +36.8

Nestoras Altun SF 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

43/106 shots 112.0 expected 114 scored ▲ +2.0

Stepas Gaidys Injured PG 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

28/64 shots 73.5 expected 61 scored ▼ −12.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.