Manage a club, start free

Pisari Loznica

Founded 1970 in Loznica

Dvorana kod Tršića, holding 5 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Where the points say

Pisari Loznica's wins match its points

+0.6 wins

Pisari Loznica's points say about 6 wins in 15 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

6.4Points say

84.7Scored a game

86.5Allowed a game

−1.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 271
Points allowed	1 298
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0212
To the power of 14	1.3422
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.3422)	42.70%
× 15 games played	6.40
Wins the points say	6.4 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pisari Loznica won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Weakness

A leaky defence

115.8

Pisari Loznica let in 115.8 per 100 trips against the league's 111.4. Lower is better: 13th of 16.

PIL 115.8

League 111.4

How we counted it

100 × 1 298 allowed ÷ 1 121 possessions	115.8
League mean, 16 clubs	111.4
Rank, 16 clubs	13th of 16

Strength

Hot shooting

55.0 %

Pisari Loznica shoot 55.0 % effective. The league shoots 53.8 %. That is 4th of 16.

PIL 55.0 %

League 53.8 %

How we counted it

Pisari Loznica: (450 + ½ × 155) ÷ 959	55.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Weakness

Careless with the ball

17.6 %

Pisari Loznica give it away on 17.6 % of trips against the league's 17.2 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 16.

PIL 17.6 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Pisari Loznica: 198 ÷ 1 124 possessions	17.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Best shot-maker

Grigorije Jovović

#50 · SF

26/52shots

58points

+2.3vs expected

How we counted it

26 made of 52, 6 of them threes	26/52
Points: 2 × 26 + 6	58
His shots are worth (expected)	55.7
Above expected	58 − 55.7 = +2.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 16

PIL 55.0 %

League 53.8 %

How we counted it

Pisari Loznica: (450 + ½ × 155) ÷ 959	55.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	53.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 16

PIL 17.6 %

League 17.2 %

How we counted it

Pisari Loznica: 198 ÷ 1 124 possessions	17.6 %
League mean, 16 clubs	17.2 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 16

PIL 27.1 %

League 26.1 %

How we counted it

Pisari Loznica: 137 ÷ (137 + 369)	27.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	7th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 16

PIL 29.5 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Pisari Loznica: 283 tries ÷ 959 shots	29.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	6th of 16

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−17.2

Over 6 games Pisari Loznica's shots were worth 411.2 points and they scored 394 from the floor: 2.9 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−17.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 172 + 50	394
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	411.2
Shot-making	−17.2
A game	−2.86

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Pisari Loznica
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	11	0.67	7.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 275	5	0.67	3.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 274	10	0.74	7.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 274	1	0.74	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 204 league shots	15	0.90	13.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	3	0.84	2.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	5	0.84	4.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 277	1	0.84	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 418 league shots	34	0.74	25.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 552	7	0.72	5.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 552	4	0.72	2.9
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 033 league shots	51	1.26	64.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 613	7	1.28	8.9
Rim · Drive · fast break70 % of 387 league shots	16	1.41	22.5
Rim · Post-up59 % of 227 league shots	17	1.17	19.9
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 294	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 212 league shots	12	1.33	16.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	3	1.33	4.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 352	4	1.33	5.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	5	1.27	6.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	3	1.27	3.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 64 % of 2 435	3	1.27	3.8
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	8	1.01	8.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 208	1	1.01	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 721	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 535 league shots	87	1.07	92.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance37 % of 248 league shots	25	1.11	27.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break37 % of 255 league shots	18	1.11	19.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 067	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Pull-up35 % of 321 league shots	18	1.05	18.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 437	5	0.99	4.9
Total adds up	389	1.06	411.2

⁠

Where Pisari Loznica shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

450 of 450 shots shown

44.2%

199 of 450 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 92 / 141 65% · avg 2.2 ft 51 of the 92 makes assisted league 63% 184pts

MID 48 / 117 41% · avg 14.5 ft 26 of the 48 makes assisted league 38% 96pts

THREE 59 / 192 31% · avg 25.1 ft 55 of the 59 makes assisted league 35% 177pts

199 of 450 from the floor, 457 points, + 122 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

132 of 199 makes were assisted (66%): 51 + 26 + 55.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pisari Loznica

31% 25% 43%

League

38% 20% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pisari Loznica

26% 45% 21%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Pisari Loznica: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	103 drives + 30 post-ups + 175 catch and shoot + 81 pull-ups = 389

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Grigorije Jovović SF 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/52 shots 55.7 expected 58 scored ▲ +2.3

Vukoje Dudley PF 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/70 shots 70.6 expected 71 scored ▲ +0.4

Boban Medić SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

25/56 shots 60.2 expected 59 scored ▼ −1.2

Dragoljub Tripković SG 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

43/95 shots 103.7 expected 98 scored ▼ −5.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.