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Polharji Cerknica

Founded 1977 in Cerknica

Dvorana ob presihajočem jezeru, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Polharji Cerknica's wins match its points

+0.6 wins

Polharji Cerknica's points say about 6 wins in 18 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

6.4Points say

75.9Scored a game

79.2Allowed a game

−3.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 366
Points allowed	1 425
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0432
To the power of 14	1.8076
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.8076)	35.62%
× 18 games played	6.41
Wins the points say	6.4 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Polharji Cerknica won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

102.1

Polharji Cerknica score 102.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.9. That is 9th of 10.

POC 102.1

League 105.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 366 points ÷ 1 338 possessions	102.1
League mean, 10 clubs	105.9
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.2 %

Polharji Cerknica win back 24.2 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.2 %. That is 8th of 10.

POC 24.2 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Polharji Cerknica: 151 ÷ (151 + 472)	24.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Weakness

Cold shooting

50.5 %

Polharji Cerknica shoot 50.5 % effective. The league shoots 51.1 %. That is 7th of 10.

POC 50.5 %

League 51.1 %

How we counted it

Polharji Cerknica: (512 + ½ × 165) ÷ 1 177	50.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	51.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

Best shot-maker

Jože Meyer

#75 · SF

32/52shots

79points

+25.7vs expected

How we counted it

32 made of 52, 15 of them threes	32/52
Points: 2 × 32 + 15	79
His shots are worth (expected)	53.3
Above expected	79 − 53.3 = +25.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 10

POC 50.5 %

League 51.1 %

How we counted it

Polharji Cerknica: (512 + ½ × 165) ÷ 1 177	50.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	51.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 10

POC 17.6 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Polharji Cerknica: 235 ÷ 1 338 possessions	17.6 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 10

POC 24.2 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Polharji Cerknica: 151 ÷ (151 + 472)	24.2 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	8th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 10

POC 20.7 %

League 23.3 %

How we counted it

Polharji Cerknica: 244 tries ÷ 1 177 shots	20.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	23.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+11.9

Over 8 games Polharji Cerknica's shots were worth 490.1 points and they scored 502 from the floor: 1.5 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+11.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 217 + 68	502
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	490.1
Shot-making	+11.9
A game	+1.48

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Polharji Cerknica
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 246	22	0.68	15.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 246	4	0.68	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 246	4	0.68	2.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 105	19	0.76	14.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 105	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 105	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 200 league shots	23	0.89	20.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 257	1	0.86	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 257	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 359 league shots	33	0.73	24.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 461	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 461	2	0.74	1.5
Rim · Drive58 % of 818 league shots	77	1.17	90.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 282	8	1.20	9.6
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 266 league shots	29	1.29	37.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 282	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 211	7	1.19	8.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 211	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 211	4	1.19	4.8
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 211	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 233	14	1.18	16.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 233	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 233	5	1.18	5.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 233	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 812	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 812	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 812	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 223	5	0.98	4.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 223	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 292 league shots	133	0.98	130.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 220 league shots	24	0.95	22.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 717	20	0.99	19.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 717	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up34 % of 268 league shots	19	1.02	19.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 368	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 368	2	0.99	2.0
Total adds up	489	1.00	490.1

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Where Polharji Cerknica shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

489 of 489 shots shown

44.4%

217 of 489 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 95 / 162 59% · avg 2.0 ft 51 of the 95 makes assisted league 61% 190pts

MID 54 / 116 47% · avg 14.5 ft 25 of the 54 makes assisted league 38% 108pts

THREE 68 / 211 32% · avg 25.2 ft 63 of the 68 makes assisted league 33% 204pts

217 of 489 from the floor, 502 points, + 75 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

139 of 217 makes were assisted (64%): 51 + 25 + 63.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Polharji Cerknica

33% 24% 43%

League

35% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Polharji Cerknica

32% 47% 14%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Polharji Cerknica: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	156 drives + 36 post-ups + 228 catch and shoot + 69 pull-ups = 489

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Jože Meyer SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 4

32/52 shots 53.3 expected 79 scored ▲ +25.7

Mitja Markelj SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/59 shots 54.9 expected 64 scored ▲ +9.1

Davor Krošelj PG 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

34/67 shots 70.2 expected 79 scored ▲ +8.8

Alfonso Delaney PF 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

45/94 shots 96.4 expected 104 scored ▲ +7.6

Miodrag Knežević PG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

19/57 shots 57.5 expected 40 scored ▼ −17.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.