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Ponti Catanzaro

Founded 1968 in Catanzaro

Palazzetto della Fiumarella, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Ponti Catanzaro's wins match its points

+0.3 wins

Ponti Catanzaro's points say about 13 wins in 19 league games. It has 13. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

13Wins so far

12.7Points say

76.9Scored a game

73.2Allowed a game

+3.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 461
Points allowed	1 390
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9514
To the power of 14	0.4979
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4979)	66.76%
× 19 games played	12.68
Wins the points say	12.7 adds up

Wins so far	13
Difference	+0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Ponti Catanzaro won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

27.9 %

Ponti Catanzaro win back 27.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 3rd of 20.

POC 27.9 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Ponti Catanzaro: 192 ÷ (192 + 497)	27.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

Weakness

Few trips to the line

19.3

Ponti Catanzaro attempt 19.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.3, so 18th of 20.

POC 19.3 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Ponti Catanzaro: 243 tries ÷ 1 257 shots	19.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

Strength

A solid defence

100.4

Ponti Catanzaro let in 100.4 per 100 trips against the league's 103.9. Lower is better: 4th of 20.

POC 100.4

League 103.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 390 allowed ÷ 1 384 possessions	100.4
League mean, 20 clubs	103.9
Rank, 20 clubs	4th of 20

Best shot-maker

Edoardo Losada

#46 · SF

44/88shots

112points

+25.2vs expected

How we counted it

44 made of 88, 24 of them threes	44/88
Points: 2 × 44 + 24	112
His shots are worth (expected)	86.8
Above expected	112 − 86.8 = +25.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 20

POC 50.9 %

League 50.1 %

How we counted it

Ponti Catanzaro: (541 + ½ × 198) ÷ 1 257	50.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	7th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 20

POC 17.0 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Ponti Catanzaro: 235 ÷ 1 384 possessions	17.0 %
League mean, 20 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	10th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 3rd of 20

POC 27.9 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Ponti Catanzaro: 192 ÷ (192 + 497)	27.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 20 clubs	3rd of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 18th of 20

POC 19.3 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Ponti Catanzaro: 243 tries ÷ 1 257 shots	19.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−2.6

Over 8 games Ponti Catanzaro's shots were worth 525.6 points and they scored 523 from the floor: 0.3 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−2.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 220 + 83	523
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	525.6
Shot-making	−2.6
A game	−0.32

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Ponti Catanzaro
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 356 league shots	15	0.77	11.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 522	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up36 % of 238 league shots	10	0.71	7.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 299	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 299	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 343 league shots	18	0.80	14.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	5	0.80	4.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 475	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 728 league shots	28	0.76	21.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	5	0.73	3.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 978	5	0.73	3.6
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 678 league shots	78	1.18	92.4
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 310 league shots	12	1.14	13.7
Rim · Drive · fast break62 % of 567 league shots	24	1.25	30.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 2 640	5	1.19	6.0
Rim · Post-up60 % of 322 league shots	15	1.20	18.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 402	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 269 league shots	13	1.27	16.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 418	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 3 646	2	1.20	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	5	1.06	5.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 287	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 720 league shots	164	1.01	165.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 406 league shots	28	0.96	26.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break31 % of 386 league shots	24	0.92	22.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 3 571	4	0.99	4.0
Three · Pull-up33 % of 504 league shots	26	0.99	25.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 685	3	0.97	2.9
Total adds up	518	1.01	525.6

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Where Ponti Catanzaro shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

585 of 585 shots shown

42.1%

246 of 585 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 109 / 191 57% · avg 2.1 ft 74 of the 109 makes assisted league 61% 218pts

MID 47 / 109 43% · avg 14.7 ft 26 of the 47 makes assisted league 37% 94pts

THREE 90 / 285 32% · avg 25.2 ft 85 of the 90 makes assisted league 32% 270pts

246 of 585 from the floor, 582 points, + 90 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

185 of 246 makes were assisted (75%): 74 + 26 + 85.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Ponti Catanzaro

31% 19% 50%

League

35% 22% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Ponti Catanzaro

29% 51% 15%

League

33% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Ponti Catanzaro: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	148 drives + 32 post-ups + 262 catch and shoot + 76 pull-ups = 518

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Edoardo Losada SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 2

44/88 shots 86.8 expected 112 scored ▲ +25.2

Gilbert Döring SF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/67 shots 67.7 expected 68 scored ▲ +0.3

Virgilio Puente PG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

20/50 shots 52.3 expected 50 scored ▼ −2.3

Biagio Llorente SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

60/138 shots 142.1 expected 138 scored ▼ −4.1

Ugo Barba SG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

13/50 shots 47.8 expected 32 scored ▼ −15.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.