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Portokalia Argos

Founded 1952 in Argos

Gymnastirio tis Larisas Argous, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Portokalia Argos's wins match its points

+0.2 wins

Portokalia Argos's points say about 9 wins in 13 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

8.8Points say

78.8Scored a game

74.8Allowed a game

+4.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 024
Points allowed	972
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9492
To the power of 14	0.4821
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.4821)	67.47%
× 13 games played	8.77
Wins the points say	8.8 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	+0.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Portokalia Argos won 4 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Careless with the ball

19.1 %

Portokalia Argos give it away on 19.1 % of trips against the league's 17.1 %. Fewer is better: 14th of 14.

POA 19.1 %

League 17.1 %

How we counted it

Portokalia Argos: 182 ÷ 951 possessions	19.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Strong on the glass

30.3 %

Portokalia Argos win back 30.3 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.2 %. That is 1st of 14.

POA 30.3 %

League 25.2 %

How we counted it

Portokalia Argos: 135 ÷ (135 + 311)	30.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

A strong attack

107.7

Portokalia Argos score 107.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 104.1. That is 3rd of 14.

POA 107.7

League 104.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 024 points ÷ 951 possessions	107.7
League mean, 14 clubs	104.1
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Raimundo Moreira

#51 · C

29/60shots

71points

+12.3vs expected

How we counted it

29 made of 60, 13 of them threes	29/60
Points: 2 × 29 + 13	71
His shots are worth (expected)	58.7
Above expected	71 − 58.7 = +12.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 14

POA 51.5 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Portokalia Argos: (379 + ½ × 101) ÷ 834	51.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 14th of 14

POA 19.1 %

League 17.1 %

How we counted it

Portokalia Argos: 182 ÷ 951 possessions	19.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 14

POA 30.3 %

League 25.2 %

How we counted it

Portokalia Argos: 135 ÷ (135 + 311)	30.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 14

POA 24.9 %

League 25.2 %

How we counted it

Portokalia Argos: 208 tries ÷ 834 shots	24.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−23.0

Over 6 games Portokalia Argos's shots were worth 373.0 points and they scored 350 from the floor: 3.8 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−23.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 155 + 40	350
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	373.0
Shot-making	−23.0
A game	−3.83

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Portokalia Argos
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	7	0.68	4.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	1	0.68	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	5	0.68	3.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 293	2	0.68	1.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 138	6	0.70	4.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 138	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 138	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 225	9	0.83	7.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 225	2	0.83	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 225	2	0.83	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up33 % of 363 league shots	28	0.66	18.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 484	4	0.64	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 484	3	0.64	1.9
Rim · Drive58 % of 863 league shots	66	1.16	76.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 329	19	1.20	22.8
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 273 league shots	26	1.36	35.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 329	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 225	13	1.21	15.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 225	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 225	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 264	10	1.23	12.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 264	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 264	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 264	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 919	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 919	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 919	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 234	4	0.92	3.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 234	3	0.92	2.8
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 31 % of 2 234	2	0.92	1.8
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 275 league shots	90	0.96	86.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 212 league shots	18	0.95	17.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break25 % of 212 league shots	11	0.75	8.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 732	2	0.93	1.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 263 league shots	19	0.89	16.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 348	2	0.86	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 348	1	0.86	0.9
Total adds up	374	1.00	373.0

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Where Portokalia Argos shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

374 of 374 shots shown

41.4%

155 of 374 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 93 / 150 62% · avg 2.1 ft 47 of the 93 makes assisted league 60% 186pts

MID 22 / 72 31% · avg 14.4 ft 11 of the 22 makes assisted league 37% 44pts

THREE 40 / 152 26% · avg 25.0 ft 37 of the 40 makes assisted league 32% 120pts

155 of 374 from the floor, 350 points, + 90 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

95 of 155 makes were assisted (61%): 47 + 11 + 37.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Portokalia Argos

40% 19% 41%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Portokalia Argos

36% 39% 17%

League

33% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Portokalia Argos: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	136 drives + 26 post-ups + 147 catch and shoot + 65 pull-ups = 374

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Raimundo Moreira C 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

29/60 shots 58.7 expected 71 scored ▲ +12.3

Kleomenis Cruz PF 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

23/51 shots 54.7 expected 48 scored ▼ −6.7

Antigonos Garcia PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/106 shots 99.1 expected 85 scored ▼ −14.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.