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Pračovjeci Krapina

Founded 1974 in Krapina

Dvorana kod Hušnjakova, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Pračovjeci Krapina's wins match its points

−0.5 wins

Pračovjeci Krapina's points say about 13 wins in 22 league games. It has 13. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

13Wins so far

13.5Points say

81.2Scored a game

78.6Allowed a game

+2.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 786
Points allowed	1 729
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9681
To the power of 14	0.6350
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.6350)	61.16%
× 22 games played	13.46
Wins the points say	13.5 adds up

Wins so far	13
Difference	−0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pračovjeci Krapina won 3 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

112.4

Pračovjeci Krapina score 112.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 106.6. That is 1st of 12.

PRK 112.4

League 106.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 786 points ÷ 1 589 possessions	112.4
League mean, 12 clubs	106.6
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

54.1 %

Pračovjeci Krapina shoot 54.1 % effective. The league shoots 51.6 %. That is 1st of 12.

PRK 54.1 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Pračovjeci Krapina: (644 + ½ × 226) ÷ 1 400	54.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

27.1

Pračovjeci Krapina attempt 27.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 22.4, so 2nd of 12.

PRK 27.1 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Pračovjeci Krapina: 379 tries ÷ 1 400 shots	27.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Best shot-maker

Jakša Valenčič

#68 · PG

64/119shots

140points

+17.0vs expected

How we counted it

64 made of 119, 12 of them threes	64/119
Points: 2 × 64 + 12	140
His shots are worth (expected)	123.0
Above expected	140 − 123.0 = +17.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 12

PRK 54.1 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Pračovjeci Krapina: (644 + ½ × 226) ÷ 1 400	54.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 12

PRK 16.0 %

League 16.6 %

How we counted it

Pračovjeci Krapina: 255 ÷ 1 589 possessions	16.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 12

PRK 27.1 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Pračovjeci Krapina: 201 ÷ (201 + 542)	27.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 12

PRK 27.1 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Pračovjeci Krapina: 379 tries ÷ 1 400 shots	27.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+8.5

Over 10 games Pračovjeci Krapina's shots were worth 642.5 points and they scored 651 from the floor: 0.9 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+8.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 284 + 83	651
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	642.5
Shot-making	+8.5
A game	+0.85

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Pračovjeci Krapina
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive31 % of 242 league shots	30	0.63	18.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 373	3	0.70	2.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 373	9	0.70	6.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 518	15	0.70	10.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 518	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 518	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 240 league shots	19	0.72	13.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 309	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 309	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up34 % of 504 league shots	43	0.69	29.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 650	8	0.68	5.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 650	6	0.68	4.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 650	1	0.68	0.7
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 193 league shots	126	1.22	153.8
Rim · Drive · second chance59 % of 200 league shots	20	1.18	23.6
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 367 league shots	31	1.34	41.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 812	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up62 % of 215 league shots	15	1.24	18.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 277	6	1.24	7.5
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 277	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 272	22	1.20	26.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 272	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 272	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 272	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 473	8	1.23	9.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 473	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 473	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	6	1.05	6.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	2	1.05	2.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 3 029	1	1.05	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 811 league shots	151	1.04	156.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 307 league shots	25	1.04	25.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break41 % of 222 league shots	9	1.23	11.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 382	1	1.06	1.1
Three · Pull-up33 % of 350 league shots	29	1.00	29.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 463	7	0.99	6.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 463	4	0.99	4.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 463	2	0.99	2.0
Total adds up	622	1.03	642.5

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Where Pračovjeci Krapina shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

622 of 622 shots shown

45.7%

284 of 622 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 156 / 244 64% · avg 2.0 ft 81 of the 156 makes assisted league 61% 312pts

MID 45 / 141 32% · avg 14.9 ft 15 of the 45 makes assisted league 37% 90pts

THREE 83 / 237 35% · avg 25.4 ft 70 of the 83 makes assisted league 34% 249pts

284 of 622 from the floor, 651 points, + 142 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

166 of 284 makes were assisted (58%): 81 + 15 + 70.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 10 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pračovjeci Krapina

39% 23% 38%

League

35% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pračovjeci Krapina

37% 39% 18%

League

33% 42% 17%

How we counted it

Pračovjeci Krapina: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	231 drives + 39 post-ups + 240 catch and shoot + 112 pull-ups = 622

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Jakša Valenčič PG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 2

64/119 shots 123.0 expected 140 scored ▲ +17.0

Mate Kostić SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

53/114 shots 118.2 expected 130 scored ▲ +11.8

Primo Longe SG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

72/160 shots 162.2 expected 174 scored ▲ +11.8

Marino Dobrosavljević SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

40/68 shots 77.4 expected 84 scored ▲ +6.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.