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Pršutarji Sežana

Founded 1964 in Sežana

Kraška dvorana, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Pršutarji Sežana's wins match its points

−0.6 wins

Pršutarji Sežana's points say about 9 wins in 18 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.6Points say

78.3Scored a game

78.8Allowed a game

−0.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 409
Points allowed	1 418
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0064
To the power of 14	1.0932
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0932)	47.77%
× 18 games played	8.60
Wins the points say	8.6 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pršutarji Sežana won 1 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

15.1 %

Pršutarji Sežana give it away on 15.1 % of trips against the league's 16.8 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 10.

PRS 15.1 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Pršutarji Sežana: 198 ÷ 1 314 possessions	15.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Weakness

Few trips to the line

17.7

Pršutarji Sežana attempt 17.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.3, so 10th of 10.

PRS 17.7 %

League 23.3 %

How we counted it

Pršutarji Sežana: 215 tries ÷ 1 217 shots	17.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	23.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Strength

A strong attack

107.2

Pršutarji Sežana score 107.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 105.9. That is 4th of 10.

PRS 107.2

League 105.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 409 points ÷ 1 314 possessions	107.2
League mean, 10 clubs	105.9
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Best shot-maker

Tomislav Marić

#89 · SF

25/57shots

68points

+12.8vs expected

How we counted it

25 made of 57, 18 of them threes	25/57
Points: 2 × 25 + 18	68
His shots are worth (expected)	55.2
Above expected	68 − 55.2 = +12.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 10

PRS 51.1 %

League 51.1 %

How we counted it

Pršutarji Sežana: (519 + ½ × 205) ÷ 1 217	51.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	51.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 10

PRS 15.1 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Pršutarji Sežana: 198 ÷ 1 314 possessions	15.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 10

PRS 26.4 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Pršutarji Sežana: 177 ÷ (177 + 493)	26.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	6th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 10

PRS 17.7 %

League 23.3 %

How we counted it

Pršutarji Sežana: 215 tries ÷ 1 217 shots	17.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	23.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+14.1

Over 8 games Pršutarji Sežana's shots were worth 530.9 points and they scored 545 from the floor: 1.8 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+14.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 226 + 93	545
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	530.9
Shot-making	+14.1
A game	+1.77

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Pršutarji Sežana
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 246	22	0.68	15.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 246	6	0.68	4.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 246	4	0.68	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 246	1	0.68	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 105	7	0.76	5.3
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 105	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 200 league shots	38	0.89	33.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 257	4	0.86	3.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 257	4	0.86	3.5
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 359 league shots	33	0.73	24.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 461	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 461	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 461	2	0.74	1.5
Rim · Drive58 % of 818 league shots	67	1.17	78.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 282	8	1.20	9.6
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 266 league shots	19	1.29	24.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 282	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 211	24	1.19	28.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 211	6	1.19	7.2
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 211	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 233	10	1.18	11.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 233	3	1.18	3.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 233	6	1.18	7.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 812	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 812	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 812	2	1.20	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 223	8	0.98	7.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 223	3	0.98	2.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 223	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 223	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 292 league shots	146	0.98	143.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 220 league shots	35	0.95	33.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 717	15	0.99	14.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 717	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up34 % of 268 league shots	29	1.02	29.5
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 368	8	0.99	8.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 368	5	0.99	5.0
Total adds up	533	1.00	530.9

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Where Pršutarji Sežana shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

533 of 533 shots shown

42.4%

226 of 533 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 85 / 154 55% · avg 2.0 ft 46 of the 85 makes assisted league 61% 170pts

MID 48 / 126 38% · avg 14.2 ft 21 of the 48 makes assisted league 38% 96pts

THREE 93 / 253 37% · avg 25.2 ft 86 of the 93 makes assisted league 33% 279pts

226 of 533 from the floor, 545 points, + 77 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

153 of 226 makes were assisted (68%): 46 + 21 + 86.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pršutarji Sežana

29% 24% 47%

League

35% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pršutarji Sežana

27% 49% 16%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Pršutarji Sežana: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	143 drives + 40 post-ups + 263 catch and shoot + 87 pull-ups = 533

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Tomislav Marić SF 34 y

Solid41–60

Age: 34
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/57 shots 55.2 expected 68 scored ▲ +12.8

Maver Turk SG 38 y

Strong61–80

Age: 38
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 5

56/131 shots 127.0 expected 137 scored ▲ +10.0

Srećko Hunger Injured C 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 1

31/60 shots 62.4 expected 69 scored ▲ +6.6

Zoran Knoll SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/68 shots 66.4 expected 70 scored ▲ +3.6

Brady Bushnell PG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

35/93 shots 94.2 expected 83 scored ▼ −11.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.