Manage a club, start free

Pumpernickel Soest

Founded 1945 in Soest

Grünsandstein-Halle, holding 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Where the points say

Pumpernickel Soest's wins match its points

+0.8 wins

Pumpernickel Soest's points say about 2 wins in 13 league games. It has 3. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

3Wins so far

2.2Points say

64.3Scored a game

72.2Allowed a game

−7.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	836
Points allowed	938
Allowed ÷ scored	1.1220
To the power of 14	5.0113
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 5.0113)	16.64%
× 13 games played	2.16
Wins the points say	2.2 adds up

Wins so far	3
Difference	+0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pumpernickel Soest won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Weakness

A thin attack

90.5

Pumpernickel Soest score 90.5 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 100.5. That is 14th of 14.

PNS 90.5

League 100.5

How we counted it

100 × 836 points ÷ 924 possessions	90.5
League mean, 14 clubs	100.5
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Careless with the ball

17.7 %

Pumpernickel Soest give it away on 17.7 % of trips against the league's 16.2 %. Fewer is better: 13th of 14.

PNS 17.7 %

League 16.2 %

How we counted it

Pumpernickel Soest: 164 ÷ 924 possessions	17.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

45.4 %

Pumpernickel Soest shoot 45.4 % effective. The league shoots 48.0 %. That is 12th of 14.

PNS 45.4 %

League 48.0 %

How we counted it

Pumpernickel Soest: (319 + ½ × 103) ÷ 816	45.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Jeremy Gallagher

#33 · PG

29/63shots

66points

+6.9vs expected

How we counted it

29 made of 63, 8 of them threes	29/63
Points: 2 × 29 + 8	66
His shots are worth (expected)	59.1
Above expected	66 − 59.1 = +6.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 12th of 14

PNS 45.4 %

League 48.0 %

How we counted it

Pumpernickel Soest: (319 + ½ × 103) ÷ 816	45.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 13th of 14

PNS 17.7 %

League 16.2 %

How we counted it

Pumpernickel Soest: 164 ÷ 924 possessions	17.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 12th of 14

PNS 22.4 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Pumpernickel Soest: 105 ÷ (105 + 364)	22.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 11th of 14

PNS 18.1 %

League 19.7 %

How we counted it

Pumpernickel Soest: 148 tries ÷ 816 shots	18.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−7.3

Over 6 games Pumpernickel Soest's shots were worth 325.3 points and they scored 318 from the floor: 1.2 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−7.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 136 + 46	318
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	325.3
Shot-making	−7.3
A game	−1.22

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Pumpernickel Soest
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive43 % of 231 league shots	14	0.86	12.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 339	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 339	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 339	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	9	0.73	6.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 283	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot35 % of 223 league shots	21	0.70	14.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 293	2	0.71	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 293	2	0.71	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up34 % of 389 league shots	38	0.67	25.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 527	7	0.68	4.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 527	4	0.68	2.7
Rim · Drive58 % of 876 league shots	48	1.16	55.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 325	4	1.17	4.7
Rim · Drive · fast break59 % of 264 league shots	17	1.18	20.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 325	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	7	1.18	8.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 756	2	1.18	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	4	0.89	3.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	2	0.89	1.8
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 364	3	0.89	2.7
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 412 league shots	105	0.91	95.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance27 % of 253 league shots	18	0.81	14.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 857	9	0.90	8.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 857	2	0.90	1.8
Three · Pull-up27 % of 249 league shots	22	0.81	17.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	2	0.85	1.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	3	0.85	2.5
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 351	1	0.85	0.8
Total adds up	363	0.90	325.3

⁠

Where Pumpernickel Soest shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

363 of 363 shots shown

37.5%

136 of 363 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 49 / 82 60% · avg 1.9 ft 26 of the 49 makes assisted league 60% 98pts

MID 41 / 110 37% · avg 14.6 ft 16 of the 41 makes assisted league 36% 82pts

THREE 46 / 171 27% · avg 25.4 ft 37 of the 46 makes assisted league 31% 138pts

136 of 363 from the floor, 318 points, + 44 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

79 of 136 makes were assisted (58%): 26 + 16 + 37.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pumpernickel Soest

23% 30% 47%

League

33% 24% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pumpernickel Soest

28% 45% 22%

League

33% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Pumpernickel Soest: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	102 drives + 20 post-ups + 162 catch and shoot + 79 pull-ups = 363

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Jeremy Gallagher PG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/63 shots 59.1 expected 66 scored ▲ +6.9

Ulrich Bubanja SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/85 shots 74.9 expected 79 scored ▲ +4.1

Lars Lindner SF 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

21/79 shots 68.8 expected 54 scored ▼ −14.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.