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Pyrgoi Didymoteicho

Founded 1996 in Didymoteicho

Gymnastirio tou Kastrou Didymoteichou, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho's wins match its points

0.0 wins

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 6. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

6Wins so far

6.0Points say

78.1Scored a game

78.9Allowed a game

−0.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 015
Points allowed	1 026
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0108
To the power of 14	1.1629
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1629)	46.23%
× 13 games played	6.01
Wins the points say	6.0 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	0.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Pyrgoi Didymoteicho won 3 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Cold shooting

49.8 %

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho shoot 49.8 % effective. The league shoots 51.4 %. That is 13th of 14.

PYD 49.8 %

League 51.4 %

How we counted it

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho: (366 + ½ × 132) ÷ 867	49.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	51.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.2 %

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho give it away on 16.2 % of trips against the league's 16.7 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 14.

PYD 16.2 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho: 155 ÷ 958 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Weakness

A leaky defence

107.7

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho let in 107.7 per 100 trips against the league's 106.1. Lower is better: 10th of 14.

PYD 107.7

League 106.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 026 allowed ÷ 953 possessions	107.7
League mean, 14 clubs	106.1
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Best shot-maker

Panagiotis Heil

#10 · SG

59/122shots

144points

+21.0vs expected

How we counted it

59 made of 122, 26 of them threes	59/122
Points: 2 × 59 + 26	144
His shots are worth (expected)	123.0
Above expected	144 − 123.0 = +21.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

PYD 49.8 %

League 51.4 %

How we counted it

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho: (366 + ½ × 132) ÷ 867	49.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	51.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 14

PYD 16.2 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho: 155 ÷ 958 possessions	16.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 14

PYD 25.5 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho: 122 ÷ (122 + 356)	25.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 14

PYD 22.6 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho: 196 tries ÷ 867 shots	22.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−14.9

Over 6 games Pyrgoi Didymoteicho's shots were worth 406.9 points and they scored 392 from the floor: 2.5 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−14.9

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 165 + 62	392
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	406.9
Shot-making	−14.9
A game	−2.48

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	12	0.61	7.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	4	0.61	2.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	1	0.61	0.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	2	0.61	1.2
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	8	0.72	5.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	12	0.82	9.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	2	0.82	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	1	0.82	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 406 league shots	26	0.75	19.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	6	0.73	4.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	3	0.73	2.2
Rim · Drive60 % of 806 league shots	54	1.20	64.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 259	9	1.24	11.2
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 271 league shots	18	1.36	24.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 259	7	1.24	8.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	10	1.25	12.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	14	1.27	17.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	3	1.27	3.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	4	1.27	5.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	1	1.25	1.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	8	1.03	8.2
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	2	1.03	2.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 1 351 league shots	108	1.02	110.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 216 league shots	15	0.96	14.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 228 league shots	22	1.18	26.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 829	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Pull-up33 % of 312 league shots	21	1.00	21.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 411	1	0.95	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 411	4	0.95	3.8
Total adds up	392	1.04	406.9

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Where Pyrgoi Didymoteicho shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

392 of 392 shots shown

42.1%

165 of 392 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 72 / 128 56% · avg 2.2 ft 48 of the 72 makes assisted league 62% 144pts

MID 31 / 81 38% · avg 14.7 ft 15 of the 31 makes assisted league 37% 62pts

THREE 62 / 183 34% · avg 25.5 ft 55 of the 62 makes assisted league 34% 186pts

165 of 392 from the floor, 392 points, + 92 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

118 of 165 makes were assisted (72%): 48 + 15 + 55.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho

33% 21% 47%

League

33% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho

30% 47% 17%

League

31% 42% 20%

How we counted it

Pyrgoi Didymoteicho: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	118 drives + 21 post-ups + 185 catch and shoot + 68 pull-ups = 392

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Panagiotis Heil SG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

59/122 shots 123.0 expected 144 scored ▲ +21.0

Diogenis Isailović PF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/65 shots 66.3 expected 60 scored ▼ −6.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.