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Quebrachos Villa Ángela

Founded 1959 in Villa Ángela

Gimnasio del Monte Chaqueño, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Quebrachos Villa Ángela's wins trail its points

−1.0 wins

Quebrachos Villa Ángela's points say about 8 wins in 22 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little unkind.

7Wins so far

8.0Points say

76.9Scored a game

80.0Allowed a game

−3.1Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 691
Points allowed	1 759
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0402
To the power of 14	1.7366
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.7366)	36.54%
× 22 games played	8.04
Wins the points say	8.0 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−1.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Quebrachos Villa Ángela won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

107.8

Quebrachos Villa Ángela let in 107.8 per 100 trips against the league's 105.1. Lower is better: 11th of 12.

QVA 107.8

League 105.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 759 allowed ÷ 1 631 possessions	107.8
League mean, 12 clubs	105.1
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.9 %

Quebrachos Villa Ángela win back 24.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 10th of 12.

QVA 24.9 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Quebrachos Villa Ángela: 197 ÷ (197 + 595)	24.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.4 %

Quebrachos Villa Ángela give it away on 16.4 % of trips against the league's 16.9 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 12.

QVA 16.4 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Quebrachos Villa Ángela: 267 ÷ 1 630 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Best shot-maker

Ariel Losada

#12 · SF

51/110shots

120points

+4.2vs expected

How we counted it

51 made of 110, 18 of them threes	51/110
Points: 2 × 51 + 18	120
His shots are worth (expected)	115.8
Above expected	120 − 115.8 = +4.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 12

QVA 49.3 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Quebrachos Villa Ángela: (610 + ½ × 200) ÷ 1 441	49.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 12

QVA 16.4 %

League 16.9 %

How we counted it

Quebrachos Villa Ángela: 267 ÷ 1 630 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 12

QVA 24.9 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Quebrachos Villa Ángela: 197 ÷ (197 + 595)	24.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 12

QVA 24.6 %

League 22.8 %

How we counted it

Quebrachos Villa Ángela: 355 tries ÷ 1 441 shots	24.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	22.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−40.2

Over 9 games Quebrachos Villa Ángela's shots were worth 595.2 points and they scored 555 from the floor: 4.5 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−40.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 233 + 89	555
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	595.2
Shot-making	−40.2
A game	−4.47

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Quebrachos Villa Ángela
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 232 league shots	21	0.77	16.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	3	0.76	2.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 331	5	0.76	3.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 482	19	0.73	13.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 482	7	0.73	5.1
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 482	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	8	0.70	5.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 266	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 530 league shots	38	0.75	28.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 694	17	0.76	12.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 694	5	0.76	3.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 694	1	0.76	0.7
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 175 league shots	87	1.21	105.4
Rim · Drive · second chance57 % of 200 league shots	18	1.14	20.5
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 362 league shots	26	1.34	34.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 784	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Post-up57 % of 256 league shots	11	1.14	12.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 307	1	1.09	1.1
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 307	2	1.09	2.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	21	1.25	26.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	4	1.25	5.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 318	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	13	1.22	15.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 559	1	1.22	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	12	1.02	12.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	4	1.02	4.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 025	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 698 league shots	147	1.04	153.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance38 % of 308 league shots	24	1.13	27.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 255 league shots	13	1.08	14.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 298	3	1.05	3.2
Three · Pull-up30 % of 374 league shots	39	0.91	35.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 526	7	0.97	6.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 526	8	0.97	7.7
Total adds up	578	1.03	595.2

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Where Quebrachos Villa Ángela shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

650 of 650 shots shown

39.2%

255 of 650 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 110 / 208 53% · avg 2.1 ft 54 of the 110 makes assisted league 61% 220pts

MID 49 / 144 34% · avg 14.4 ft 21 of the 49 makes assisted league 36% 98pts

THREE 96 / 298 32% · avg 25.2 ft 78 of the 96 makes assisted league 33% 288pts

255 of 650 from the floor, 606 points, + 122 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

153 of 255 makes were assisted (60%): 54 + 21 + 78.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Quebrachos Villa Ángela

33% 22% 45%

League

36% 21% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Quebrachos Villa Ángela

31% 39% 23%

League

33% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Quebrachos Villa Ángela: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	180 drives + 41 post-ups + 225 catch and shoot + 132 pull-ups = 578

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ariel Losada SF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

51/110 shots 115.8 expected 120 scored ▲ +4.2

Polydoros Altınay PG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

54/130 shots 132.8 expected 136 scored ▲ +3.2

Gino Gutiérrez SG 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

42/96 shots 99.5 expected 99 scored ▼ −0.5

Hakkı Arıkan SF 35 y

Solid41–60

Age: 35
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

37/99 shots 105.0 expected 89 scored ▼ −16.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.