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Químicos Río Tercero

Founded 1949 in Río Tercero

Gimnasio del Embalse, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Químicos Río Tercero's wins trail its points

−1.0 wins

Químicos Río Tercero's points say about 11 wins in 22 league games. It has 10. The table has been a little unkind.

10Wins so far

11.0Points say

76.7Scored a game

76.7Allowed a game

0.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 688
Points allowed	1 688
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0000
To the power of 14	1.0000
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.0000)	50.00%
× 22 games played	11.00
Wins the points say	11.0 adds up

Wins so far	10
Difference	−1.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Químicos Río Tercero won 2 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

14.8 %

Químicos Río Tercero give it away on 14.8 % of trips against the league's 16.4 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 12.

QRT 14.8 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Químicos Río Tercero: 239 ÷ 1 615 possessions	14.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Weakness

Cold shooting

48.2 %

Químicos Río Tercero shoot 48.2 % effective. The league shoots 49.9 %. That is 11th of 12.

QRT 48.2 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Químicos Río Tercero: (605 + ½ × 194) ÷ 1 455	48.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

A leaky defence

104.9

Químicos Río Tercero let in 104.9 per 100 trips against the league's 103.7. Lower is better: 10th of 12.

QRT 104.9

League 103.7

How we counted it

100 × 1 688 allowed ÷ 1 609 possessions	104.9
League mean, 12 clubs	103.7
Rank, 12 clubs	10th of 12

Best shot-maker

Omar Marinho

#67 · SF

28/50shots

66points

+14.5vs expected

How we counted it

28 made of 50, 10 of them threes	28/50
Points: 2 × 28 + 10	66
His shots are worth (expected)	51.5
Above expected	66 − 51.5 = +14.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 12

QRT 48.2 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Químicos Río Tercero: (605 + ½ × 194) ÷ 1 455	48.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 12

QRT 14.8 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Químicos Río Tercero: 239 ÷ 1 615 possessions	14.8 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 12

QRT 25.2 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Químicos Río Tercero: 203 ÷ (203 + 602)	25.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 12

QRT 25.3 %

League 23.8 %

How we counted it

Químicos Río Tercero: 368 tries ÷ 1 455 shots	25.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−13.8

Over 10 games Químicos Río Tercero's shots were worth 666.8 points and they scored 653 from the floor: 1.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−13.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 281 + 91	653
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	666.8
Shot-making	−13.8
A game	−1.38

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Químicos Río Tercero
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 276 league shots	21	0.72	15.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	7	0.78	5.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	10	0.74	7.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 251 league shots	24	0.80	19.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 504 league shots	51	0.72	36.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	8	0.73	5.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	10	0.73	7.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 115 league shots	104	1.19	124.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 722	19	1.23	23.3
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 353 league shots	33	1.37	45.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 722	5	1.23	6.1
Rim · Post-up63 % of 202 league shots	12	1.26	15.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 264	4	1.26	5.0
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	17	1.20	20.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	19	1.22	23.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	1	1.22	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	10	0.98	9.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 749 league shots	176	0.99	173.6
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 257 league shots	30	0.96	28.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 271 league shots	16	1.04	16.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 2 307	4	0.99	4.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 392 league shots	36	0.96	34.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	6	0.94	5.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	4	0.94	3.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	4	0.94	3.8
Total adds up	659	1.01	666.8

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Where Químicos Río Tercero shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

659 of 659 shots shown

42.6%

281 of 659 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 139 / 221 63% · avg 2.0 ft 68 of the 139 makes assisted league 61% 278pts

MID 51 / 148 35% · avg 14.7 ft 23 of the 51 makes assisted league 37% 102pts

THREE 91 / 290 31% · avg 25.1 ft 78 of the 91 makes assisted league 32% 273pts

281 of 659 from the floor, 653 points, + 132 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

169 of 281 makes were assisted (60%): 68 + 23 + 78.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 10 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Químicos Río Tercero

34% 22% 44%

League

34% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Químicos Río Tercero

32% 42% 21%

League

33% 42% 19%

How we counted it

Químicos Río Tercero: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	211 drives + 29 post-ups + 278 catch and shoot + 141 pull-ups = 659

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Omar Marinho SF 21 y

Modest21–40

Age: 21
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

28/50 shots 51.5 expected 66 scored ▲ +14.5

Dino Montoya SG 30 y

Strong61–80

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

112/247 shots 248.6 expected 261 scored ▲ +12.4

Brane Repnik PF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/72 shots 72.5 expected 75 scored ▲ +2.5

Juraj Juhart SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

24/75 shots 76.1 expected 57 scored ▼ −19.1

Elio Rubio SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 2

18/62 shots 65.3 expected 43 scored ▼ −22.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.