Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto

Founded 1989 in Castelfranco Veneto

Palestra del Musone, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto's wins match its points

−0.8 wins

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto's points say about 3 wins in 13 league games. It has 2. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

2Wins so far

2.8Points say

65.5Scored a game

71.7Allowed a game

−6.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	851
Points allowed	932
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0952
To the power of 14	3.5712
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.5712)	21.88%
× 13 games played	2.84
Wins the points say	2.8 adds up

Wins so far	2
Difference	−0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

90.1

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto score 90.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 100.1. That is 14th of 14.

RCV 90.1

League 100.1

How we counted it

100 × 851 points ÷ 945 possessions	90.1
League mean, 14 clubs	100.1
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

43.5 %

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto shoot 43.5 % effective. The league shoots 47.3 %. That is 14th of 14.

RCV 43.5 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto: (318 + ½ × 107) ÷ 854	43.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

A solid defence

98.0

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto let in 98.0 per 100 trips against the league's 100.1. Lower is better: 3rd of 14.

RCV 98.0

League 100.1

How we counted it

100 × 932 allowed ÷ 951 possessions	98.0
League mean, 14 clubs	100.1
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Best shot-maker

Fokas Milovanović

#78 · SF

41/108shots

105points

+9.2vs expected

How we counted it

41 made of 108, 23 of them threes	41/108
Points: 2 × 41 + 23	105
His shots are worth (expected)	95.8
Above expected	105 − 95.8 = +9.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 14th of 14

RCV 43.5 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto: (318 + ½ × 107) ÷ 854	43.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 14

RCV 16.6 %

League 14.9 %

How we counted it

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto: 157 ÷ 945 possessions	16.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	14.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 12th of 14

RCV 23.6 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto: 118 ÷ (118 + 382)	23.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 10th of 14

RCV 18.5 %

League 19.1 %

How we counted it

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto: 158 tries ÷ 854 shots	18.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	19.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−20.1

Over 6 games Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto's shots were worth 358.1 points and they scored 338 from the floor: 3.3 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−20.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 143 + 52	338
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	358.1
Shot-making	−20.1
A game	−3.35

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 229 league shots	14	0.72	10.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 332	4	0.74	3.0
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	8	0.70	5.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	1	0.70	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 336	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 250 league shots	27	0.71	19.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 323	6	0.77	4.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 323	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 323	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 401 league shots	35	0.71	25.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 535	6	0.68	4.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 535	6	0.68	4.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 535	1	0.68	0.7
Rim · Drive57 % of 950 league shots	67	1.15	76.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 448	9	1.13	10.2
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 283 league shots	14	1.17	16.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 448	2	1.13	2.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	5	1.13	5.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	3	1.13	3.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	7	1.13	7.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	2	1.13	2.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	5	1.13	5.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 57 % of 1 881	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	3	0.91	2.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	2	0.91	1.8
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 283	1	0.91	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 356 league shots	93	0.93	86.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 223 league shots	19	0.74	14.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 794	17	0.92	15.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 1 794	5	0.92	4.6
Three · Pull-up25 % of 285 league shots	18	0.74	13.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 367	2	0.83	1.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 367	2	0.83	1.6
Total adds up	393	0.91	358.1

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Where Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

393 of 393 shots shown

36.4%

143 of 393 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 57 / 115 50% · avg 2.0 ft 23 of the 57 makes assisted league 58% 114pts

MID 34 / 115 30% · avg 15.2 ft 15 of the 34 makes assisted league 35% 68pts

THREE 52 / 163 32% · avg 25.2 ft 43 of the 52 makes assisted league 30% 156pts

143 of 393 from the floor, 338 points, + 50 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

81 of 143 makes were assisted (57%): 23 + 15 + 43.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto

29% 29% 41%

League

34% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto

30% 45% 19%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Radicchi Castelfranco Veneto: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	119 drives + 20 post-ups + 178 catch and shoot + 76 pull-ups = 393

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Fokas Milovanović SF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/108 shots 95.8 expected 105 scored ▲ +9.2

Pellegrino Andrade PG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

20/58 shots 54.0 expected 44 scored ▼ −10.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.