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Ribolovci Apatin

Founded 1978 in Apatin

Dvorana kod Rukavca, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Ribolovci Apatin's wins match its points

+0.1 wins

Ribolovci Apatin's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 6. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

6Wins so far

5.9Points say

78.5Scored a game

79.5Allowed a game

−1.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 021
Points allowed	1 034
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0127
To the power of 14	1.1938
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1938)	45.58%
× 13 games played	5.93
Wins the points say	5.9 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	+0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Ribolovci Apatin won 4 and lost 6. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

31.1 %

Ribolovci Apatin win back 31.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.0 %. That is 1st of 14.

RIA 31.1 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Ribolovci Apatin: 153 ÷ (153 + 339)	31.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

48.4 %

Ribolovci Apatin shoot 48.4 % effective. The league shoots 50.8 %. That is 13th of 14.

RIA 48.4 %

League 50.8 %

How we counted it

Ribolovci Apatin: (378 + ½ × 130) ÷ 915	48.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

20.4

Ribolovci Apatin attempt 20.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 24.7, so 12th of 14.

RIA 20.4 %

League 24.7 %

How we counted it

Ribolovci Apatin: 187 tries ÷ 915 shots	20.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

RIA 48.4 %

League 50.8 %

How we counted it

Ribolovci Apatin: (378 + ½ × 130) ÷ 915	48.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 14

RIA 17.3 %

League 16.8 %

How we counted it

Ribolovci Apatin: 171 ÷ 988 possessions	17.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 14

RIA 31.1 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Ribolovci Apatin: 153 ÷ (153 + 339)	31.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 14

RIA 20.4 %

League 24.7 %

How we counted it

Ribolovci Apatin: 187 tries ÷ 915 shots	20.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−48.1

Over 6 games Ribolovci Apatin's shots were worth 439.1 points and they scored 391 from the floor: 8.0 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−48.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 166 + 59	391
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	439.1
Shot-making	−48.1
A game	−8.02

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Ribolovci Apatin
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 278	15	0.72	10.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 278	3	0.72	2.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 278	3	0.72	2.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 168	11	0.73	8.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 168	5	0.73	3.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 168	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 168	1	0.73	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 248	13	0.78	10.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 248	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 248	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up38 % of 380 league shots	22	0.76	16.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 507	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 507	6	0.77	4.6
Rim · Drive63 % of 893 league shots	70	1.25	87.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 358	13	1.25	16.3
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 289 league shots	14	1.35	18.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 358	4	1.25	5.0
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 206	17	1.21	20.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 206	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 206	2	1.21	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 253	8	1.19	9.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 253	4	1.19	4.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 253	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 253	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 924	5	1.23	6.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 1 924	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 240	9	1.01	9.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 240	2	1.01	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 1 286 league shots	112	1.01	112.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 702	23	1.00	22.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 1 702	17	1.00	16.9
Three · Pull-up35 % of 274 league shots	19	1.06	20.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 367	7	1.10	7.7
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 367	2	1.10	2.2
Total adds up	422	1.04	439.1

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Where Ribolovci Apatin shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

422 of 422 shots shown

39.3%

166 of 422 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 86 / 144 60% · avg 2.0 ft 50 of the 86 makes assisted league 60% 172pts

MID 21 / 87 24% · avg 14.0 ft 11 of the 21 makes assisted league 37% 42pts

THREE 59 / 191 31% · avg 25.2 ft 49 of the 59 makes assisted league 33% 177pts

166 of 422 from the floor, 391 points, + 73 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

110 of 166 makes were assisted (66%): 50 + 11 + 49.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Ribolovci Apatin

34% 21% 45%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Ribolovci Apatin

32% 9% 44% 15%

League

34% 41% 18%

Ribolovci Apatin lean on post-ups: 9.5 % of its shots against the league's 6.7 %.

How we counted it

Ribolovci Apatin: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	133 drives + 40 post-ups + 184 catch and shoot + 65 pull-ups = 422

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Evaristo Fleischer SF 34 y

Strong61–80

Age: 34
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 1

46/109 shots 111.3 expected 102 scored ▼ −9.3

Aristarchos Kolarević SG 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/81 shots 84.8 expected 74 scored ▼ −10.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.