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Risaie Novara

Founded 1950 in Novara

Palazzetto della Cupola, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Risaie Novara's wins run ahead of its points

+1.7 wins

Risaie Novara's points say about 6 wins in 19 league games. It has 8. The table has been a little kind.

8Wins so far

6.3Points say

82.5Scored a game

86.7Allowed a game

−4.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 567
Points allowed	1 647
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0511
To the power of 14	2.0079
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.0079)	33.25%
× 19 games played	6.32
Wins the points say	6.3 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	+1.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Risaie Novara won 3 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

115.5

Risaie Novara let in 115.5 per 100 trips against the league's 109.2. Lower is better: 20th of 20.

RIN 115.5

League 109.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 647 allowed ÷ 1 426 possessions	115.5
League mean, 20 clubs	109.2
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Strength

Hot shooting

55.1 %

Risaie Novara shoot 55.1 % effective. The league shoots 52.7 %. That is 1st of 20.

RIN 55.1 %

League 52.7 %

How we counted it

Risaie Novara: (571 + ½ × 203) ÷ 1 220	55.1 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	1st of 20

Weakness

Weak on the glass

23.4 %

Risaie Novara win back 23.4 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.7 %. That is 17th of 20.

RIN 23.4 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Risaie Novara: 144 ÷ (144 + 472)	23.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	17th of 20

Best shot-maker

Henrikas Andriukaitis

#61 · SF

91/169shots

223points

+35.8vs expected

How we counted it

91 made of 169, 41 of them threes	91/169
Points: 2 × 91 + 41	223
His shots are worth (expected)	187.2
Above expected	223 − 187.2 = +35.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 20

RIN 55.1 %

League 52.7 %

How we counted it

Risaie Novara: (571 + ½ × 203) ÷ 1 220	55.1 %
League mean, 20 clubs	52.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	1st of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 13th of 20

RIN 17.9 %

League 17.6 %

How we counted it

Risaie Novara: 255 ÷ 1 428 possessions	17.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.6 %
Rank, 20 clubs	13th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 17th of 20

RIN 23.4 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Risaie Novara: 144 ÷ (144 + 472)	23.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 20 clubs	17th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 16th of 20

RIN 23.9 %

League 26.3 %

How we counted it

Risaie Novara: 292 tries ÷ 1 220 shots	23.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	16th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+2.1

Over 9 games Risaie Novara's shots were worth 581.9 points and they scored 584 from the floor: 0.2 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+2.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 246 + 92	584
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	581.9
Shot-making	+2.1
A game	+0.23

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Risaie Novara
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 374 league shots	17	0.77	13.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 593	5	0.77	3.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 593	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up33 % of 261 league shots	10	0.66	6.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 321	3	0.62	1.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 357 league shots	8	0.77	6.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 508	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 508	4	0.74	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 845 league shots	41	0.79	32.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 1 122	4	0.79	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 1 122	6	0.79	4.7
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 771 league shots	89	1.25	111.7
Rim · Drive · second chance55 % of 296 league shots	12	1.11	13.3
Rim · Drive · fast break67 % of 586 league shots	26	1.35	35.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 2 738	3	1.27	3.8
Rim · Post-up63 % of 394 league shots	29	1.26	36.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 502	1	1.26	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 502	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot59 % of 352 league shots	21	1.18	24.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 549	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 549	5	1.23	6.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 286	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 286	1	1.24	1.2
Three · Drive38 % of 208 league shots	8	1.14	9.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 311	3	1.08	3.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 4 882	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 2 756 league shots	164	1.04	171.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 433 league shots	13	0.92	12.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 473 league shots	22	1.07	23.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 3 713	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Pull-up35 % of 613 league shots	33	1.05	34.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 831	4	1.04	4.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 831	4	1.04	4.2
Total adds up	546	1.07	581.9

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Where Risaie Novara shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

546 of 546 shots shown

45.1%

246 of 546 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 117 / 193 61% · avg 2.0 ft 70 of the 117 makes assisted league 63% 234pts

MID 37 / 100 37% · avg 14.8 ft 10 of the 37 makes assisted league 39% 74pts

THREE 92 / 253 36% · avg 25.1 ft 79 of the 92 makes assisted league 34% 276pts

246 of 546 from the floor, 584 points, + 93 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

159 of 246 makes were assisted (65%): 70 + 10 + 79.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Risaie Novara

35% 18% 46%

League

35% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Risaie Novara

30% 8% 44% 17%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Risaie Novara: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	164 drives + 46 post-ups + 242 catch and shoot + 94 pull-ups = 546

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Henrikas Andriukaitis SF 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.7
Contract ends: End of season 4

91/169 shots 187.2 expected 223 scored ▲ +35.8

Charilaos Stevović Injured PG 37 y

Solid41–60

Age: 37
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

48/112 shots 117.2 expected 112 scored ▼ −5.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.