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Šanci Karlovac

Founded 1969 in Karlovac

Dvorana na Korani, holding 9 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Šanci Karlovac's wins trail its points

−1.5 wins

Šanci Karlovac's points say about 13 wins in 22 league games. It has 12. The table has been a little unkind.

12Wins so far

13.5Points say

88.7Scored a game

85.8Allowed a game

+2.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 951
Points allowed	1 888
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9677
To the power of 14	0.6316
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.6316)	61.29%
× 22 games played	13.48
Wins the points say	13.5 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	−1.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Šanci Karlovac won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

17.6 %

Šanci Karlovac give it away on 17.6 % of trips against the league's 18.8 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 12.

SAK 17.6 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: 298 ÷ 1 690 possessions	17.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Strength

A solid defence

111.6

Šanci Karlovac let in 111.6 per 100 trips against the league's 113.9. Lower is better: 3rd of 12.

SAK 111.6

League 113.9

How we counted it

100 × 1 888 allowed ÷ 1 691 possessions	111.6
League mean, 12 clubs	113.9
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

32.7

Šanci Karlovac attempt 32.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 31.5, so 4th of 12.

SAK 32.7 %

League 31.5 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: 460 tries ÷ 1 405 shots	32.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	31.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Best shot-maker

Tihomir Žnidaršič

#29 · SF

57/106shots

152points

+30.7vs expected

How we counted it

57 made of 106, 38 of them threes	57/106
Points: 2 × 57 + 38	152
His shots are worth (expected)	121.3
Above expected	152 − 121.3 = +30.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 6th of 12

SAK 56.3 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: (681 + ½ × 219) ÷ 1 405	56.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 12

SAK 17.6 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: 298 ÷ 1 690 possessions	17.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 12

SAK 25.6 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: 179 ÷ (179 + 521)	25.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 4th of 12

SAK 32.7 %

League 31.5 %

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: 460 tries ÷ 1 405 shots	32.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	31.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+33.2

Over 11 games Šanci Karlovac's shots were worth 770.8 points and they scored 804 from the floor: 3.0 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+33.2

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 342 + 120	804
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	770.8
Shot-making	+33.2
A game	+3.01

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Šanci Karlovac
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 224 league shots	11	0.76	8.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	3	0.74	2.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	23	0.78	18.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 244 league shots	17	0.85	14.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 322	5	0.88	4.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 322	1	0.88	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up43 % of 541 league shots	31	0.85	26.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	10	0.86	8.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	10	0.86	8.6
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 269 league shots	113	1.22	137.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 027	13	1.22	15.9
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 502 league shots	38	1.29	49.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 027	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Post-up58 % of 322 league shots	26	1.17	30.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	7	1.19	8.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	1	1.19	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 307 league shots	38	1.27	48.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	4	1.29	5.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	14	1.29	18.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	6	1.08	6.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	1	1.08	1.1
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	15	1.10	16.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	2	1.10	2.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	8	1.10	8.8
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 3 416	2	1.14	2.3
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 837 league shots	168	1.14	192.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 280 league shots	13	1.04	13.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break42 % of 363 league shots	35	1.25	43.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 2 557	6	1.15	6.9
Three · Pull-up39 % of 420 league shots	27	1.16	31.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	6	1.12	6.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	11	1.12	12.3
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	2	1.12	2.2
Total adds up	686	1.12	770.8

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Where Šanci Karlovac shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

686 of 686 shots shown

49.9%

342 of 686 from the floor, 11 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 179 / 270 66% · avg 1.9 ft 115 of the 179 makes assisted league 63% 358pts

MID 43 / 121 36% · avg 14.0 ft 24 of the 43 makes assisted league 41% 86pts

THREE 120 / 295 41% · avg 25.1 ft 106 of the 120 makes assisted league 38% 360pts

342 of 686 from the floor, 804 points, + 191 from the line

The dots cover 11 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

245 of 342 makes were assisted (72%): 115 + 24 + 106.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 11 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Šanci Karlovac

39% 18% 43%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Šanci Karlovac

31% 10% 44% 15%

League

32% 8% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Šanci Karlovac: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	210 drives + 69 post-ups + 303 catch and shoot + 104 pull-ups = 686

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Tihomir Žnidaršič Injured SF 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

57/106 shots 121.3 expected 152 scored ▲ +30.7

Stjepan Kostanjšek PG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

59/105 shots 120.8 expected 138 scored ▲ +17.2

Jasper Cortez SG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

49/97 shots 107.6 expected 117 scored ▲ +9.4

Ilko Horvat PF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

23/53 shots 57.6 expected 54 scored ▼ −3.6

Virgilio Dorneles C 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

36/76 shots 84.1 expected 77 scored ▼ −7.1

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Vice Rajh SG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

42/103 shots 116.4 expected 98 scored ▼ −18.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.