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Sardelarji Izola

Founded 1963 in Izola

Dvorana ob pristanu, holding 5 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Sardelarji Izola's wins match its points

−0.7 wins

Sardelarji Izola's points say about 9 wins in 22 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.7Points say

80.0Scored a game

82.4Allowed a game

−2.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 759
Points allowed	1 813
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0307
To the power of 14	1.5270
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.5270)	39.57%
× 22 games played	8.71
Wins the points say	8.7 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Sardelarji Izola won 0 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Careless with the ball

19.2 %

Sardelarji Izola give it away on 19.2 % of trips against the league's 17.3 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 12.

SAI 19.2 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Sardelarji Izola: 318 ÷ 1 658 possessions	19.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

106.1

Sardelarji Izola score 106.1 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 112.1. That is 11th of 12.

SAI 106.1

League 112.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 759 points ÷ 1 658 possessions	106.1
League mean, 12 clubs	112.1
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

Cold shooting

52.3 %

Sardelarji Izola shoot 52.3 % effective. The league shoots 54.2 %. That is 11th of 12.

SAI 52.3 %

League 54.2 %

How we counted it

Sardelarji Izola: (649 + ½ × 186) ÷ 1 418	52.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	54.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Best shot-maker

Celestino Pušica

#56 · PG

44/89shots

106points

+12.0vs expected

How we counted it

44 made of 89, 18 of them threes	44/89
Points: 2 × 44 + 18	106
His shots are worth (expected)	94.0
Above expected	106 − 94.0 = +12.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 11th of 12

SAI 52.3 %

League 54.2 %

How we counted it

Sardelarji Izola: (649 + ½ × 186) ÷ 1 418	52.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	54.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 12

SAI 19.2 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Sardelarji Izola: 318 ÷ 1 658 possessions	19.2 %
League mean, 12 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 12

SAI 26.6 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Sardelarji Izola: 201 ÷ (201 + 555)	26.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	7th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 12

SAI 25.5 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Sardelarji Izola: 361 tries ÷ 1 418 shots	25.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−9.7

Over 9 games Sardelarji Izola's shots were worth 588.7 points and they scored 579 from the floor: 1.1 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−9.7

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 254 + 71	579
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	588.7
Shot-making	−9.7
A game	−1.08

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Sardelarji Izola
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive43 % of 237 league shots	35	0.86	30.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 360	5	0.85	4.2
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 360	6	0.85	5.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 360	3	0.85	2.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 204	11	0.91	10.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 204	1	0.91	0.9
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 204	2	0.91	1.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 248 league shots	14	0.85	12.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 326	1	0.85	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 326	2	0.85	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 513 league shots	50	0.78	38.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 703	10	0.79	7.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 703	12	0.79	9.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 703	1	0.79	0.8
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 042 league shots	92	1.20	110.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 654	9	1.22	11.0
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 376 league shots	32	1.29	41.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 654	9	1.22	11.0
Rim · Post-up63 % of 218 league shots	14	1.27	17.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 270	5	1.28	6.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 270	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 270	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 219 league shots	20	1.33	26.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 331	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 331	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 395	6	1.24	7.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 395	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 395	2	1.24	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 238	14	1.02	14.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 238	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 238	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 648 league shots	119	1.08	128.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 252 league shots	19	1.02	19.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 269 league shots	16	1.18	18.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 206	2	1.09	2.2
Three · Pull-up37 % of 378 league shots	22	1.10	24.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 503	4	1.15	4.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 503	4	1.15	4.6
Total adds up	551	1.07	588.7

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Where Sardelarji Izola shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

615 of 615 shots shown

47.0%

289 of 615 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 150 / 224 67% · avg 1.9 ft 80 of the 150 makes assisted league 62% 300pts

MID 60 / 166 36% · avg 14.7 ft 33 of the 60 makes assisted league 42% 120pts

THREE 79 / 225 35% · avg 25.2 ft 68 of the 79 makes assisted league 36% 237pts

289 of 615 from the floor, 657 points, + 110 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

181 of 289 makes were assisted (63%): 80 + 33 + 68.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Sardelarji Izola

36% 28% 37%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Sardelarji Izola

38% 36% 20%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Sardelarji Izola: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	207 drives + 36 post-ups + 196 catch and shoot + 112 pull-ups = 551

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Celestino Pušica PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

44/89 shots 94.0 expected 106 scored ▲ +12.0

Urban Lazar SG 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

29/65 shots 71.2 expected 78 scored ▲ +6.8

Vasja Kolenc SF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

67/128 shots 141.1 expected 143 scored ▲ +1.9

Rok Mbanefo C 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 1

26/59 shots 59.8 expected 58 scored ▼ −1.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.