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Sauerbrunnen Göppingen

Founded 1966 in Göppingen

Filsufer-Halle, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen's wins run ahead of its points

+1.0 wins

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little kind.

7Wins so far

6.0Points say

68.7Scored a game

69.5Allowed a game

−0.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	893
Points allowed	903
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0112
To the power of 14	1.1687
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1687)	46.11%
× 13 games played	5.99
Wins the points say	6.0 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+1.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Sauerbrunnen Göppingen won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

13.5 %

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen give it away on 13.5 % of trips against the league's 15.7 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 14.

SBG 13.5 %

League 15.7 %

How we counted it

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen: 127 ÷ 938 possessions	13.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Weakness

Cold shooting

44.1 %

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen shoot 44.1 % effective. The league shoots 46.8 %. That is 13th of 14.

SBG 44.1 %

League 46.8 %

How we counted it

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen: (332 + ½ × 97) ÷ 862	44.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	46.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.1 %

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen win back 22.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.1 %. That is 13th of 14.

SBG 22.1 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen: 112 ÷ (112 + 395)	22.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Best shot-maker

Waldemar Kraus

#47 · SF

26/50shots

65points

+16.3vs expected

How we counted it

26 made of 50, 13 of them threes	26/50
Points: 2 × 26 + 13	65
His shots are worth (expected)	48.7
Above expected	65 − 48.7 = +16.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 14

SBG 44.1 %

League 46.8 %

How we counted it

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen: (332 + ½ × 97) ÷ 862	44.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	46.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 14

SBG 13.5 %

League 15.7 %

How we counted it

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen: 127 ÷ 938 possessions	13.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 13th of 14

SBG 22.1 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen: 112 ÷ (112 + 395)	22.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 14

SBG 22.5 %

League 21.4 %

How we counted it

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen: 194 tries ÷ 862 shots	22.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off at all

−37.1

Over 6 games Sauerbrunnen Göppingen's shots were worth 356.1 points and they scored 319 from the floor: 6.2 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−37.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 139 + 41	319
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	356.1
Shot-making	−37.1
A game	−6.19

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 203 league shots	11	0.68	7.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 317	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 317	5	0.67	3.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 317	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 239	10	0.69	6.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 239	1	0.69	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot34 % of 207 league shots	7	0.69	4.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 276	2	0.66	1.3
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 385 league shots	18	0.73	13.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 501	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 501	6	0.73	4.4
Rim · Drive56 % of 922 league shots	58	1.12	64.8
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 382	7	1.19	8.3
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 281 league shots	26	1.35	35.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 382	5	1.19	5.9
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	11	1.20	13.2
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	13	1.20	15.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 806	1	1.20	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 257	5	0.89	4.5
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 257	2	0.89	1.8
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 257	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 257	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot31 % of 1 350 league shots	98	0.93	90.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance27 % of 213 league shots	12	0.80	9.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 759	20	0.91	18.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 759	3	0.91	2.7
Three · Pull-up27 % of 284 league shots	13	0.80	10.4
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 368	3	0.81	2.4
Total adds up	365	0.98	356.1

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Where Sauerbrunnen Göppingen shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

365 of 365 shots shown

38.1%

139 of 365 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 80 / 140 57% · avg 2.0 ft 41 of the 80 makes assisted league 59% 160pts

MID 18 / 67 27% · avg 13.9 ft 8 of the 18 makes assisted league 34% 36pts

THREE 41 / 158 26% · avg 25.4 ft 38 of the 41 makes assisted league 29% 123pts

139 of 365 from the floor, 319 points, + 89 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

87 of 139 makes were assisted (63%): 41 + 8 + 38.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen

38% 18% 43%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen

34% 45% 13%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Sauerbrunnen Göppingen: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	125 drives + 27 post-ups + 165 catch and shoot + 48 pull-ups = 365

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Waldemar Kraus SF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/50 shots 48.7 expected 65 scored ▲ +16.3

Gautier Obande PG 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

27/66 shots 61.5 expected 62 scored ▲ +0.5

Tim Bohn SG 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

30/100 shots 96.6 expected 69 scored ▼ −27.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.