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Secesija Subotica

Founded 1957 in Subotica

Dvorana kod Palića, holding 10 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Secesija Subotica's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Secesija Subotica's points say about 9 wins in 15 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

8.5Points say

83.8Scored a game

82.2Allowed a game

+1.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 257
Points allowed	1 233
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9809
To the power of 14	0.7635
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7635)	56.71%
× 15 games played	8.51
Wins the points say	8.5 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Secesija Subotica won 3 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

108.0

Secesija Subotica let in 108.0 per 100 trips against the league's 114.0. Lower is better: 1st of 16.

SES 108.0

League 114.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 233 allowed ÷ 1 142 possessions	108.0
League mean, 16 clubs	114.0
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Weakness

A thin attack

109.6

Secesija Subotica score 109.6 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 114.0. That is 14th of 16.

SES 109.6

League 114.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 257 points ÷ 1 147 possessions	109.6
League mean, 16 clubs	114.0
Rank, 16 clubs	14th of 16

Weakness

Cold shooting

53.4 %

Secesija Subotica shoot 53.4 % effective. The league shoots 55.7 %. That is 13th of 16.

SES 53.4 %

League 55.7 %

How we counted it

Secesija Subotica: (464 + ½ × 106) ÷ 968	53.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	55.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	13th of 16

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 13th of 16

SES 53.4 %

League 55.7 %

How we counted it

Secesija Subotica: (464 + ½ × 106) ÷ 968	53.4 %
League mean, 16 clubs	55.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	13th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 16

SES 19.1 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Secesija Subotica: 219 ÷ 1 147 possessions	19.1 %
League mean, 16 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	9th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 4th of 16

SES 28.5 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Secesija Subotica: 141 ÷ (141 + 354)	28.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	4th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 16

SES 30.8 %

League 32.1 %

How we counted it

Secesija Subotica: 298 tries ÷ 968 shots	30.8 %
League mean, 16 clubs	32.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	12th of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−26.6

Over 7 games Secesija Subotica's shots were worth 502.6 points and they scored 476 from the floor: 3.8 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−26.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 214 + 48	476
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	502.6
Shot-making	−26.6
A game	−3.80

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Secesija Subotica
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 295	11	0.88	9.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 295	1	0.88	0.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 212	10	0.79	7.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 212	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 212	4	0.79	3.2
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 212	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 253	13	0.84	10.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 253	3	0.84	2.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 253	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 447 league shots	23	0.82	18.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 629	6	0.82	4.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 629	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 629	1	0.82	0.8
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 038 league shots	72	1.20	86.6
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 666	18	1.26	22.6
Rim · Drive · fast break70 % of 419 league shots	32	1.39	44.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 666	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Post-up67 % of 294 league shots	21	1.33	28.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 380	7	1.34	9.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 380	4	1.34	5.3
Rim · Catch and shoot66 % of 279 league shots	20	1.31	26.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 439	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 439	11	1.29	14.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 439	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 212	4	1.29	5.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 212	3	1.29	3.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 219	11	0.97	10.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 219	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 219	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 1 570 league shots	91	1.10	100.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance40 % of 255 league shots	18	1.20	21.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 291 league shots	9	1.18	10.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 2 158	1	1.12	1.1
Three · Pull-up38 % of 354 league shots	27	1.14	30.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 473	3	1.09	3.3
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 473	4	1.09	4.4
Total adds up	442	1.14	502.6

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Where Secesija Subotica shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

442 of 442 shots shown

48.4%

214 of 442 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 134 / 198 68% · avg 2.0 ft 85 of the 134 makes assisted league 64% 268pts

MID 32 / 78 41% · avg 14.0 ft 22 of the 32 makes assisted league 42% 64pts

THREE 48 / 166 29% · avg 25.2 ft 44 of the 48 makes assisted league 36% 144pts

214 of 442 from the floor, 476 points, + 116 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

151 of 214 makes were assisted (71%): 85 + 22 + 44.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Secesija Subotica

45% 18% 38%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Secesija Subotica

34% 11% 38% 17%

League

31% 9% 41% 19%

Secesija Subotica lean on post-ups: 10.9 % of its shots against the league's 8.7 %.

How we counted it

Secesija Subotica: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	150 drives + 48 post-ups + 170 catch and shoot + 74 pull-ups = 442

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Ognjen Lampe C 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

35/64 shots 75.0 expected 73 scored ▼ −2.0

Stanko Alpaslan SF 31 y

Strong61–80

Age: 31
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

28/56 shots 63.9 expected 61 scored ▼ −2.9

Ugrin Lenarčič SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/93 shots 101.1 expected 92 scored ▼ −9.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.