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Senfmüller Bautzen

Founded 1979 in Bautzen

Spreetal-Halle, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Senfmüller Bautzen's wins match its points

−0.4 wins

Senfmüller Bautzen's points say about 7 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

7Wins so far

7.4Points say

70.8Scored a game

69.3Allowed a game

+1.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	920
Points allowed	901
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9793
To the power of 14	0.7467
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7467)	57.25%
× 13 games played	7.44
Wins the points say	7.4 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	−0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Senfmüller Bautzen won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

30.1 %

Senfmüller Bautzen win back 30.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.4 %. That is 1st of 14.

SMB 30.1 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Senfmüller Bautzen: 147 ÷ (147 + 341)	30.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

A strong attack

100.2

Senfmüller Bautzen score 100.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 98.9. That is 4th of 14.

SMB 100.2

League 98.9

How we counted it

100 × 920 points ÷ 918 possessions	100.2
League mean, 14 clubs	98.9
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Strength

A solid defence

97.7

Senfmüller Bautzen let in 97.7 per 100 trips against the league's 98.9. Lower is better: 6th of 14.

SMB 97.7

League 98.9

How we counted it

100 × 901 allowed ÷ 922 possessions	97.7
League mean, 14 clubs	98.9
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

Best shot-maker

Linus Hempel

#11 · SG

33/62shots

73points

+15.4vs expected

How we counted it

33 made of 62, 7 of them threes	33/62
Points: 2 × 33 + 7	73
His shots are worth (expected)	57.6
Above expected	73 − 57.6 = +15.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 14

SMB 46.8 %

League 47.3 %

How we counted it

Senfmüller Bautzen: (354 + ½ × 107) ÷ 871	46.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	47.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 14

SMB 15.3 %

League 15.6 %

How we counted it

Senfmüller Bautzen: 140 ÷ 918 possessions	15.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 1st of 14

SMB 30.1 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Senfmüller Bautzen: 147 ÷ (147 + 341)	30.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 8th of 14

SMB 19.4 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Senfmüller Bautzen: 169 tries ÷ 871 shots	19.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−5.6

Over 6 games Senfmüller Bautzen's shots were worth 367.6 points and they scored 362 from the floor: 0.9 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−5.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 158 + 46	362
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	367.6
Shot-making	−5.6
A game	−0.93

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Senfmüller Bautzen
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 245 league shots	18	0.72	12.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 349	6	0.78	4.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 349	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 297	9	0.73	6.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 297	2	0.73	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 229 league shots	7	0.72	5.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 298	3	0.79	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 298	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up33 % of 421 league shots	30	0.67	20.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 540	8	0.67	5.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 540	2	0.67	1.3
Rim · Drive60 % of 838 league shots	66	1.20	78.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	14	1.22	17.1
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 248 league shots	18	1.28	23.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 258	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	10	1.19	11.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	4	1.19	4.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	9	1.19	10.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 659	1	1.19	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	3	0.89	2.7
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 30 % of 2 470	1	0.89	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot30 % of 1 504 league shots	97	0.90	86.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance26 % of 236 league shots	18	0.79	14.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 966	15	0.89	13.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 1 966	3	0.89	2.7
Three · Pull-up28 % of 269 league shots	15	0.83	12.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 363	4	0.81	3.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 27 % of 363	6	0.81	4.8
Total adds up	387	0.95	367.6

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Where Senfmüller Bautzen shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

387 of 387 shots shown

40.8%

158 of 387 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 78 / 134 58% · avg 2.0 ft 43 of the 78 makes assisted league 60% 156pts

MID 34 / 91 37% · avg 14.5 ft 14 of the 34 makes assisted league 35% 68pts

THREE 46 / 162 28% · avg 25.2 ft 40 of the 46 makes assisted league 30% 138pts

158 of 387 from the floor, 362 points, + 44 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

97 of 158 makes were assisted (61%): 43 + 14 + 40.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Senfmüller Bautzen

35% 24% 42%

League

31% 24% 46%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Senfmüller Bautzen

34% 41% 18%

League

32% 45% 18%

Senfmüller Bautzen lean on post-ups: 7.0 % of its shots against the league's 5.0 %.

How we counted it

Senfmüller Bautzen: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	132 drives + 27 post-ups + 159 catch and shoot + 69 pull-ups = 387

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Linus Hempel SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/62 shots 57.6 expected 73 scored ▲ +15.4

Hagen İpek PF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/82 shots 80.1 expected 80 scored ▼ −0.1

Burkhard Gezer SF 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

36/105 shots 95.6 expected 88 scored ▼ −7.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.