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Siriemas Uberlândia

Founded 1949 in Uberlândia

Ginásio do Triângulo, holding 7 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Siriemas Uberlândia's wins run ahead of its points

+1.3 wins

Siriemas Uberlândia's points say about 2 wins in 19 league games. It has 3. The table has been a little kind.

3Wins so far

1.7Points say

77.2Scored a game

91.1Allowed a game

−13.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 466
Points allowed	1 730
Allowed ÷ scored	1.1801
To the power of 14	10.1571
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 10.1571)	8.96%
× 19 games played	1.70
Wins the points say	1.7 adds up

Wins so far	3
Difference	+1.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Siriemas Uberlândia won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

101.7

Siriemas Uberlândia score 101.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 112.3. That is 20th of 20.

SUB 101.7

League 112.3

How we counted it

100 × 1 466 points ÷ 1 441 possessions	101.7
League mean, 20 clubs	112.3
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Weakness

A leaky defence

120.2

Siriemas Uberlândia let in 120.2 per 100 trips against the league's 112.3. Lower is better: 20th of 20.

SUB 120.2

League 112.3

How we counted it

100 × 1 730 allowed ÷ 1 439 possessions	120.2
League mean, 20 clubs	112.3
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Weakness

Cold shooting

50.9 %

Siriemas Uberlândia shoot 50.9 % effective. The league shoots 54.5 %. That is 20th of 20.

SUB 50.9 %

League 54.5 %

How we counted it

Siriemas Uberlândia: (507 + ½ × 196) ÷ 1 189	50.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	54.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Best shot-maker

Achim Ohaeri

#83 · SF

42/93shots

105points

+8.7vs expected

How we counted it

42 made of 93, 21 of them threes	42/93
Points: 2 × 42 + 21	105
His shots are worth (expected)	96.3
Above expected	105 − 96.3 = +8.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 20th of 20

SUB 50.9 %

League 54.5 %

How we counted it

Siriemas Uberlândia: (507 + ½ × 196) ÷ 1 189	50.9 %
League mean, 20 clubs	54.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 9th of 20

SUB 18.5 %

League 18.5 %

How we counted it

Siriemas Uberlândia: 267 ÷ 1 441 possessions	18.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	18.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	9th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 20th of 20

SUB 19.4 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Siriemas Uberlândia: 128 ÷ (128 + 532)	19.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 20 clubs	20th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 18th of 20

SUB 28.3 %

League 31.4 %

How we counted it

Siriemas Uberlândia: 337 tries ÷ 1 189 shots	28.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	31.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	18th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−4.0

Over 9 games Siriemas Uberlândia's shots were worth 573.0 points and they scored 569 from the floor: 0.4 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−4.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 238 + 93	569
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	573.0
Shot-making	−4.0
A game	−0.44

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Siriemas Uberlândia
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive42 % of 288 league shots	9	0.85	7.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 428	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Post-up39 % of 267 league shots	11	0.78	8.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 344	3	0.80	2.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 344	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot39 % of 285 league shots	22	0.78	17.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 388	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 654 league shots	50	0.78	38.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	5	0.78	3.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 921	1	0.78	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 511 league shots	79	1.22	96.0
Rim · Drive · second chance58 % of 252 league shots	7	1.15	8.1
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 610 league shots	33	1.27	42.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 476	5	1.23	6.1
Rim · Post-up65 % of 376 league shots	8	1.29	10.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 484	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 484	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 431 league shots	13	1.28	16.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 678	8	1.28	10.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	6	1.26	7.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 296	4	1.26	5.0
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	11	1.13	12.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	1	1.13	1.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 297	2	1.13	2.3
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 339 league shots	148	1.03	152.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 333 league shots	13	1.03	13.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 431 league shots	26	1.09	28.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 3 164	2	1.04	2.1
Three · Pull-up36 % of 560 league shots	41	1.07	43.9
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	7	1.08	7.5
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	13	1.08	14.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 786	2	1.08	2.2
Total adds up	543	1.06	573.0

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Where Siriemas Uberlândia shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

543 of 543 shots shown

43.8%

238 of 543 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 102 / 167 61% · avg 2.1 ft 61 of the 102 makes assisted league 63% 204pts

MID 43 / 110 39% · avg 14.4 ft 20 of the 43 makes assisted league 41% 86pts

THREE 93 / 266 35% · avg 25.1 ft 83 of the 93 makes assisted league 36% 279pts

238 of 543 from the floor, 569 points, + 137 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

164 of 238 makes were assisted (69%): 61 + 20 + 83.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Siriemas Uberlândia

31% 20% 49%

League

38% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Siriemas Uberlândia

27% 44% 24%

League

31% 8% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Siriemas Uberlândia: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	149 drives + 25 post-ups + 238 catch and shoot + 131 pull-ups = 543

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Achim Ohaeri Injured SF 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 2

42/93 shots 96.3 expected 105 scored ▲ +8.7

Valter Coimbra SG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

47/108 shots 115.0 expected 118 scored ▲ +3.0

Gorazd Debevec PG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

32/69 shots 73.4 expected 75 scored ▲ +1.6

André Ferraz PG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/87 shots 87.5 expected 83 scored ▼ −4.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.