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Situla Novo mesto

Founded 1971 in Novo mesto

Dvorana na Krki, holding 8 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Situla Novo mesto's wins trail its points

−1.1 wins

Situla Novo mesto's points say about 10 wins in 18 league games. It has 9. The table has been a little unkind.

9Wins so far

10.1Points say

89.0Scored a game

87.5Allowed a game

+1.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 602
Points allowed	1 575
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9831
To the power of 14	0.7882
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7882)	55.92%
× 18 games played	10.07
Wins the points say	10.1 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−1.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Situla Novo mesto won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

112.7

Situla Novo mesto let in 112.7 per 100 trips against the league's 117.5. Lower is better: 1st of 10.

SNM 112.7

League 117.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 575 allowed ÷ 1 398 possessions	112.7
League mean, 10 clubs	117.5
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Weakness

Careless with the ball

20.1 %

Situla Novo mesto give it away on 20.1 % of trips against the league's 18.4 %. Fewer is better: 10th of 10.

SNM 20.1 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Situla Novo mesto: 280 ÷ 1 395 possessions	20.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Weakness

Weak on the glass

25.5 %

Situla Novo mesto win back 25.5 % of their misses. The league wins back 27.2 %. That is 9th of 10.

SNM 25.5 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Situla Novo mesto: 134 ÷ (134 + 391)	25.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Best shot-maker

Lovrenc Kern

#47 · SG

68/121shots

155points

+17.7vs expected

How we counted it

68 made of 121, 19 of them threes	68/121
Points: 2 × 68 + 19	155
His shots are worth (expected)	137.3
Above expected	155 − 137.3 = +17.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 10

SNM 59.0 %

League 57.5 %

How we counted it

Situla Novo mesto: (576 + ½ × 162) ÷ 1 114	59.0 %
League mean, 10 clubs	57.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 10

SNM 20.1 %

League 18.4 %

How we counted it

Situla Novo mesto: 280 ÷ 1 395 possessions	20.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	18.4 %
Rank, 10 clubs	10th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 10

SNM 25.5 %

League 27.2 %

How we counted it

Situla Novo mesto: 134 ÷ (134 + 391)	25.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	27.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	9th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 10

SNM 32.5 %

League 33.3 %

How we counted it

Situla Novo mesto: 362 tries ÷ 1 114 shots	32.5 %
League mean, 10 clubs	33.3 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+27.6

Over 9 games Situla Novo mesto's shots were worth 614.4 points and they scored 642 from the floor: 3.1 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+27.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 281 + 80	642
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	614.4
Shot-making	+27.6
A game	+3.06

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Situla Novo mesto
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	21	0.77	16.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	5	0.77	3.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 254	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 44 % of 1 130	19	0.87	16.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 44 % of 1 130	3	0.87	2.6
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 48 % of 211	18	0.96	17.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 48 % of 211	2	0.96	1.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 48 % of 211	3	0.96	2.9
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 354 league shots	24	0.82	19.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 473	5	0.86	4.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 473	11	0.86	9.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 473	3	0.86	2.6
Rim · Drive64 % of 860 league shots	100	1.27	127.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 349	12	1.29	15.5
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 344 league shots	43	1.36	58.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 349	7	1.29	9.0
Rim · Post-up60 % of 251 league shots	17	1.20	20.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 300	3	1.25	3.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 300	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Catch and shoot66 % of 210 league shots	15	1.32	19.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 341	5	1.36	6.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 68 % of 341	9	1.36	12.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 2 182	14	1.30	18.2
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 2 182	1	1.30	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 65 % of 2 182	1	1.30	1.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	11	1.15	12.6
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 2 248	4	1.15	4.6
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 247 league shots	100	1.15	115.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 683	6	1.14	6.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 224 league shots	18	1.06	19.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 1 683	4	1.14	4.6
Three · Pull-up40 % of 311 league shots	36	1.19	42.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 408	3	1.19	3.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 408	5	1.19	5.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 408	1	1.19	1.2
Total adds up	536	1.15	614.4

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Where Situla Novo mesto shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

536 of 536 shots shown

52.4%

281 of 536 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 153 / 229 67% · avg 2.1 ft 82 of the 153 makes assisted league 65% 306pts

MID 48 / 119 40% · avg 14.0 ft 24 of the 48 makes assisted league 44% 96pts

THREE 80 / 188 43% · avg 25.2 ft 70 of the 80 makes assisted league 38% 240pts

281 of 536 from the floor, 642 points, + 137 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

176 of 281 makes were assisted (63%): 82 + 24 + 70.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Situla Novo mesto

43% 22% 35%

League

39% 20% 40%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Situla Novo mesto

39% 8% 34% 19%

League

31% 9% 40% 19%

How we counted it

Situla Novo mesto: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	208 drives + 44 post-ups + 180 catch and shoot + 104 pull-ups = 536

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Lovrenc Kern SG 34 y

Strong61–80

Age: 34
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

68/121 shots 137.3 expected 155 scored ▲ +17.7

Silvester Andrejc PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

45/79 shots 90.5 expected 108 scored ▲ +17.5

Domen Ladipo PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/52 shots 59.9 expected 66 scored ▲ +6.1

Jaka Debevec SF 19 y

Strong61–80

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/72 shots 84.8 expected 83 scored ▼ −1.8

Sandro George SG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

26/50 shots 59.9 expected 57 scored ▼ −2.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.