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Škveranti Pula

Founded 1958 in Pula

Dvorana kod Uljanika, holding 9 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Škveranti Pula's wins match its points

+0.9 wins

Škveranti Pula's points say about 17 wins in 22 league games. It has 18. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

18Wins so far

17.1Points say

95.3Scored a game

87.1Allowed a game

+8.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	2 097
Points allowed	1 917
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9142
To the power of 14	0.2847
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.2847)	77.84%
× 22 games played	17.13
Wins the points say	17.1 adds up

Wins so far	18
Difference	+0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Škveranti Pula won 4 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

123.4

Škveranti Pula score 123.4 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 113.9. That is 1st of 12.

SKP 123.4

League 113.9

How we counted it

100 × 2 097 points ÷ 1 700 possessions	123.4
League mean, 12 clubs	113.9
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

62.3 %

Škveranti Pula shoot 62.3 % effective. The league shoots 56.0 %. That is 1st of 12.

SKP 62.3 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Škveranti Pula: (728 + ½ × 270) ÷ 1 385	62.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Weakness

Careless with the ball

20.1 %

Škveranti Pula give it away on 20.1 % of trips against the league's 18.8 %. Fewer is better: 12th of 12.

SKP 20.1 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Škveranti Pula: 342 ÷ 1 700 possessions	20.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Best shot-maker

Grady Abaniwonda

#99 · SF

94/168shots

230points

+39.9vs expected

How we counted it

94 made of 168, 42 of them threes	94/168
Points: 2 × 94 + 42	230
His shots are worth (expected)	190.1
Above expected	230 − 190.1 = +39.9 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 12

SKP 62.3 %

League 56.0 %

How we counted it

Škveranti Pula: (728 + ½ × 270) ÷ 1 385	62.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	56.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 12th of 12

SKP 20.1 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Škveranti Pula: 342 ÷ 1 700 possessions	20.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	12th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 12

SKP 28.1 %

League 25.9 %

How we counted it

Škveranti Pula: 181 ÷ (181 + 464)	28.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 12

SKP 34.3 %

League 31.5 %

How we counted it

Škveranti Pula: 475 tries ÷ 1 385 shots	34.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	31.5 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+74.6

Over 11 games Škveranti Pula's shots were worth 786.4 points and they scored 861 from the floor: 6.8 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+74.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 363 + 135	861
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	786.4
Shot-making	+74.6
A game	+6.78

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Škveranti Pula
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 224 league shots	16	0.76	12.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	4	0.74	3.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 333	8	0.74	5.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	11	0.78	8.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 251	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 244 league shots	26	0.85	22.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 322	4	0.88	3.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 322	6	0.88	5.2
Mid-range · Pull-up43 % of 541 league shots	40	0.85	34.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	12	0.86	10.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	7	0.86	6.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 747	2	0.86	1.7
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 269 league shots	108	1.22	131.2
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 027	12	1.22	14.7
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 502 league shots	46	1.29	59.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 2 027	3	1.22	3.7
Rim · Post-up58 % of 322 league shots	26	1.17	30.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	4	1.19	4.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 398	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 307 league shots	26	1.27	33.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	6	1.29	7.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 488	12	1.29	15.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	13	1.08	14.1
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	1	1.08	1.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	3	1.08	3.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 54 % of 262	2	1.08	2.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	11	1.10	12.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	5	1.10	5.5
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 257	7	1.10	7.7
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 3 416	2	1.14	2.3
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 837 league shots	159	1.14	182.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 280 league shots	25	1.04	26.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break42 % of 363 league shots	35	1.25	43.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 2 557	3	1.15	3.4
Three · Pull-up39 % of 420 league shots	41	1.16	47.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	8	1.12	9.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	5	1.12	5.6
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 576	2	1.12	2.2
Total adds up	707	1.11	786.4

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Where Škveranti Pula shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

707 of 707 shots shown

51.3%

363 of 707 from the floor, 11 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 163 / 264 62% · avg 1.9 ft 91 of the 163 makes assisted league 63% 326pts

MID 65 / 140 46% · avg 14.5 ft 31 of the 65 makes assisted league 41% 130pts

THREE 135 / 303 45% · avg 25.2 ft 125 of the 135 makes assisted league 38% 405pts

363 of 707 from the floor, 861 points, + 209 from the line

The dots cover 11 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

247 of 363 makes were assisted (68%): 91 + 31 + 125.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 11 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Škveranti Pula

37% 20% 43%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Škveranti Pula

31% 43% 19%

League

32% 8% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Škveranti Pula: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	220 drives + 49 post-ups + 302 catch and shoot + 136 pull-ups = 707

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Grady Abaniwonda SF 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 4

94/168 shots 190.1 expected 230 scored ▲ +39.9

Leonardo Okpara PG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

65/106 shots 120.3 expected 149 scored ▲ +28.7

Zdravko Čupić Injured SG 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

70/135 shots 144.3 expected 168 scored ▲ +23.7

Mislav Strnad SG 26 y

Strong61–80

Age: 26
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

36/88 shots 95.4 expected 92 scored ▼ −3.4

Lovre Trobec PF 29 y

Strong61–80

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/60 shots 67.8 expected 63 scored ▼ −4.8

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Coldest shooters

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Slobodan Savić PG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/64 shots 74.1 expected 68 scored ▼ −6.1

A man is listed from 50 shots.