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Slamnikarji Domžale

Founded 1956 in Domžale

Dvorana ob Kamniški Bistrici, holding 6 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Slamnikarji Domžale's wins match its points

+0.3 wins

Slamnikarji Domžale's points say about 12 wins in 22 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

11.7Points say

84.0Scored a game

83.3Allowed a game

+0.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 849
Points allowed	1 833
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9913
To the power of 14	0.8854
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.8854)	53.04%
× 22 games played	11.67
Wins the points say	11.7 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Slamnikarji Domžale won 2 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

16.4 %

Slamnikarji Domžale give it away on 16.4 % of trips against the league's 17.3 %. Fewer is better: 4th of 12.

SLD 16.4 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Slamnikarji Domžale: 272 ÷ 1 655 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Weakness

Weak on the glass

24.4 %

Slamnikarji Domžale win back 24.4 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.8 %. That is 9th of 12.

SLD 24.4 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Slamnikarji Domžale: 183 ÷ (183 + 567)	24.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Weakness

A thin attack

111.7

Slamnikarji Domžale score 111.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 112.1. That is 8th of 12.

SLD 111.7

League 112.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 849 points ÷ 1 655 possessions	111.7
League mean, 12 clubs	112.1
Rank, 12 clubs	8th of 12

Best shot-maker

Zvonko Sodnik

#70 · SF

62/126shots

153points

+23.8vs expected

How we counted it

62 made of 126, 29 of them threes	62/126
Points: 2 × 62 + 29	153
His shots are worth (expected)	129.2
Above expected	153 − 129.2 = +23.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 7th of 12

SLD 54.1 %

League 54.2 %

How we counted it

Slamnikarji Domžale: (664 + ½ × 241) ÷ 1 450	54.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	54.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	7th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 12

SLD 16.4 %

League 17.3 %

How we counted it

Slamnikarji Domžale: 272 ÷ 1 655 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	17.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 12

SLD 24.4 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Slamnikarji Domžale: 183 ÷ (183 + 567)	24.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 12

SLD 24.4 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Slamnikarji Domžale: 354 tries ÷ 1 450 shots	24.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	7th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+6.8

Over 9 games Slamnikarji Domžale's shots were worth 617.2 points and they scored 624 from the floor: 0.8 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+6.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 261 + 102	624
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	617.2
Shot-making	+6.8
A game	+0.76

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Slamnikarji Domžale
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive43 % of 237 league shots	17	0.86	14.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 360	4	0.85	3.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 360	8	0.85	6.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 204	5	0.91	4.6
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 204	1	0.91	0.9
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 46 % of 204	2	0.91	1.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot43 % of 248 league shots	23	0.85	19.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 326	1	0.85	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 326	5	0.85	4.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 326	2	0.85	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up39 % of 513 league shots	31	0.78	24.0
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 703	6	0.79	4.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 703	6	0.79	4.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 042 league shots	85	1.20	102.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 654	12	1.22	14.7
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 376 league shots	24	1.29	31.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 654	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Post-up63 % of 218 league shots	16	1.27	20.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 270	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 270	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot67 % of 219 league shots	21	1.33	28.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 331	3	1.29	3.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 331	6	1.29	7.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 395	10	1.24	12.4
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 395	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 395	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 395	1	1.24	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 238	14	1.02	14.3
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 238	4	1.02	4.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 238	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 2 961	3	1.09	3.3
Three · Catch and shoot36 % of 1 648 league shots	151	1.08	163.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 252 league shots	21	1.02	21.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 269 league shots	24	1.18	28.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 2 206	5	1.09	5.4
Three · Pull-up37 % of 378 league shots	36	1.10	39.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 503	1	1.15	1.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 503	7	1.15	8.1
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 503	2	1.15	2.3
Total adds up	567	1.09	617.2

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Where Slamnikarji Domžale shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

641 of 641 shots shown

46.2%

296 of 641 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 122 / 213 57% · avg 2.0 ft 70 of the 122 makes assisted league 62% 244pts

MID 57 / 127 45% · avg 14.4 ft 31 of the 57 makes assisted league 42% 114pts

THREE 117 / 301 39% · avg 25.2 ft 107 of the 117 makes assisted league 36% 351pts

296 of 641 from the floor, 709 points, + 153 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

208 of 296 makes were assisted (70%): 70 + 31 + 107.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Slamnikarji Domžale

33% 20% 47%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Slamnikarji Domžale

30% 46% 18%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Slamnikarji Domžale: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	170 drives + 32 post-ups + 262 catch and shoot + 103 pull-ups = 567

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Zvonko Sodnik SF 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

62/126 shots 129.2 expected 153 scored ▲ +23.8

Joël Brunel SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

34/64 shots 70.9 expected 80 scored ▲ +9.1

Slavko Drobnič PG 21 y

Strong61–80

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

41/82 shots 92.7 expected 98 scored ▲ +5.3

Roman Bružas SG 24 y

Strong61–80

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

56/132 shots 143.2 expected 136 scored ▼ −7.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.