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Spargelstecher Braunschweig

Founded 1961 in Braunschweig

Okerhalle, holding 6 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Spargelstecher Braunschweig's wins run ahead of its points

+1.8 wins

Spargelstecher Braunschweig's points say about 14 wins in 17 league games. It has 16. The table has been a little kind.

16Wins so far

14.2Points say

89.7Scored a game

79.9Allowed a game

+9.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 525
Points allowed	1 358
Allowed ÷ scored	0.8905
To the power of 14	0.1972
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.1972)	83.53%
× 17 games played	14.20
Wins the points say	14.2 adds up

Wins so far	16
Difference	+1.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Spargelstecher Braunschweig won 5 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

105.4

Spargelstecher Braunschweig let in 105.4 per 100 trips against the league's 109.1. Lower is better: 1st of 18.

SSB 105.4

League 109.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 358 allowed ÷ 1 289 possessions	105.4
League mean, 18 clubs	109.1
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Strength

Hot shooting

58.2 %

Spargelstecher Braunschweig shoot 58.2 % effective. The league shoots 53.5 %. That is 1st of 18.

SSB 58.2 %

League 53.5 %

How we counted it

Spargelstecher Braunschweig: (526 + ½ × 173) ÷ 1 053	58.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

37.2

Spargelstecher Braunschweig attempt 37.2 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 27.9, so 1st of 18.

SSB 37.2 %

League 27.9 %

How we counted it

Spargelstecher Braunschweig: 392 tries ÷ 1 053 shots	37.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.9 %
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Best shot-maker

Armando Duke

#32 · SG

75/121shots

174points

+41.0vs expected

How we counted it

75 made of 121, 24 of them threes	75/121
Points: 2 × 75 + 24	174
His shots are worth (expected)	133.0
Above expected	174 − 133.0 = +41.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 18

SSB 58.2 %

League 53.5 %

How we counted it

Spargelstecher Braunschweig: (526 + ½ × 173) ÷ 1 053	58.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 6th of 18

SSB 17.2 %

League 18.3 %

How we counted it

Spargelstecher Braunschweig: 222 ÷ 1 290 possessions	17.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	18.3 %
Rank, 18 clubs	6th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 18

SSB 24.8 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Spargelstecher Braunschweig: 127 ÷ (127 + 385)	24.8 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 18 clubs	10th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 18

SSB 37.2 %

League 27.9 %

How we counted it

Spargelstecher Braunschweig: 392 tries ÷ 1 053 shots	37.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	27.9 %
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+71.1

Over 8 games Spargelstecher Braunschweig's shots were worth 513.9 points and they scored 585 from the floor: 8.9 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+71.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 248 + 89	585
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	513.9
Shot-making	+71.1
A game	+8.89

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Spargelstecher Braunschweig
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive46 % of 263 league shots	17	0.92	15.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 392	2	0.88	1.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 392	5	0.88	4.4
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	15	0.79	11.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 248	2	0.79	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot45 % of 220 league shots	12	0.90	10.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 317	3	0.90	2.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 317	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 45 % of 317	1	0.90	0.9
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 574 league shots	41	0.72	29.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 754	1	0.75	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 754	4	0.75	3.0
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 290 league shots	79	1.21	95.5
Rim · Drive · second chance65 % of 200 league shots	7	1.30	9.1
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 434 league shots	29	1.32	38.2
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 991	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up62 % of 267 league shots	16	1.24	19.9
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 347	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Catch and shoot59 % of 300 league shots	18	1.19	21.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	6	1.28	7.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 472	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 992	8	1.24	9.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 992	2	1.24	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	11	1.19	13.0
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	1	1.19	1.2
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	2	1.19	2.4
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 215	1	1.19	1.2
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 3 326	1	1.09	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 883 league shots	115	1.13	129.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance40 % of 272 league shots	10	1.20	12.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 331 league shots	22	1.06	23.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 2 533	1	1.12	1.1
Three · Pull-up32 % of 400 league shots	22	0.95	20.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 550	2	0.93	1.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 550	4	0.93	3.7
Total adds up	473	1.09	513.9

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Where Spargelstecher Braunschweig shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

473 of 473 shots shown

52.4%

248 of 473 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 112 / 176 64% · avg 2.1 ft 71 of the 112 makes assisted league 62% 224pts

MID 47 / 105 45% · avg 14.5 ft 24 of the 47 makes assisted league 39% 94pts

THREE 89 / 192 46% · avg 25.3 ft 76 of the 89 makes assisted league 35% 267pts

248 of 473 from the floor, 585 points, + 153 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

171 of 248 makes were assisted (69%): 71 + 24 + 76.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Spargelstecher Braunschweig

37% 22% 41%

League

37% 21% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Spargelstecher Braunschweig

33% 8% 41% 18%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Spargelstecher Braunschweig: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	157 drives + 38 post-ups + 194 catch and shoot + 84 pull-ups = 473

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Armando Duke SG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 3

75/121 shots 133.0 expected 174 scored ▲ +41.0

Manuel Hunger SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

32/50 shots 52.7 expected 81 scored ▲ +28.3

Rafet Kahraman PG 22 y

Strong61–80

Age: 22
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

53/106 shots 115.1 expected 123 scored ▲ +7.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.