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Speck Bolzano

Founded 1969 in Bolzano

Palazzetto del Talvera, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Speck Bolzano's wins match its points

−0.9 wins

Speck Bolzano's points say about 9 wins in 19 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.9Points say

76.4Scored a game

77.2Allowed a game

−0.7Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 19 league games	1 452
Points allowed	1 466
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0096
To the power of 14	1.1438
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.1438)	46.65%
× 19 games played	8.86
Wins the points say	8.9 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.9 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Speck Bolzano won 3 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 19. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Strong on the glass

28.4 %

Speck Bolzano win back 28.4 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.5 %. That is 5th of 20.

SPB 28.4 %

League 26.5 %

How we counted it

Speck Bolzano: 193 ÷ (193 + 486)	28.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	5th of 20

Weakness

A leaky defence

105.7

Speck Bolzano let in 105.7 per 100 trips against the league's 104.5. Lower is better: 14th of 20.

SPB 105.7

League 104.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 466 allowed ÷ 1 387 possessions	105.7
League mean, 20 clubs	104.5
Rank, 20 clubs	14th of 20

Weakness

Cold shooting

49.5 %

Speck Bolzano shoot 49.5 % effective. The league shoots 50.4 %. That is 14th of 20.

SPB 49.5 %

League 50.4 %

How we counted it

Speck Bolzano: (532 + ½ × 174) ÷ 1 250	49.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	14th of 20

Best shot-maker

Jerolim Anđelković

#10 · PG

36/80shots

90points

+9.2vs expected

How we counted it

36 made of 80, 18 of them threes	36/80
Points: 2 × 36 + 18	90
His shots are worth (expected)	80.8
Above expected	90 − 80.8 = +9.2 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 14th of 20

SPB 49.5 %

League 50.4 %

How we counted it

Speck Bolzano: (532 + ½ × 174) ÷ 1 250	49.5 %
League mean, 20 clubs	50.4 %
Rank, 20 clubs	14th of 20

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 13th of 20

SPB 17.3 %

League 17.1 %

How we counted it

Speck Bolzano: 240 ÷ 1 387 possessions	17.3 %
League mean, 20 clubs	17.1 %
Rank, 20 clubs	13th of 20

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 20

SPB 28.4 %

League 26.5 %

How we counted it

Speck Bolzano: 193 ÷ (193 + 486)	28.4 %
League mean, 20 clubs	26.5 %
Rank, 20 clubs	5th of 20

Free throwstries per shot · 11th of 20

SPB 22.8 %

League 22.3 %

How we counted it

Speck Bolzano: 285 tries ÷ 1 250 shots	22.8 %
League mean, 20 clubs	22.3 %
Rank, 20 clubs	11th of 20

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−38.3

Over 9 games Speck Bolzano's shots were worth 605.3 points and they scored 567 from the floor: 4.3 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−38.3

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 245 + 77	567
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	605.3
Shot-making	−38.3
A game	−4.25

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 19.

Speck Bolzano
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 396 league shots	25	0.77	19.3
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	5	0.77	3.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 585	5	0.77	3.8
Mid-range · Post-up43 % of 242 league shots	13	0.86	11.2
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 307	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot37 % of 384 league shots	17	0.74	12.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	6	0.79	4.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 519	4	0.79	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 708 league shots	46	0.73	33.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	11	0.73	8.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 989	6	0.73	4.4
Rim · Drive59 % of 1 663 league shots	86	1.18	101.8
Rim · Drive · second chance55 % of 261 league shots	19	1.10	20.8
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 547 league shots	37	1.31	48.3
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 2 557	9	1.21	10.9
Rim · Post-up61 % of 315 league shots	17	1.21	20.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 412	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot64 % of 233 league shots	14	1.29	18.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 392	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	9	1.22	11.0
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 3 552	2	1.22	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	6	1.05	6.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	1	1.05	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 261	3	1.05	3.1
Three · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 4 592	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 2 721 league shots	158	1.00	158.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance25 % of 456 league shots	31	0.76	23.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 379 league shots	24	1.04	24.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 3 611	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Pull-up36 % of 532 league shots	25	1.07	26.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	3	0.99	3.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	2	0.99	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 698	1	0.99	1.0
Total adds up	600	1.01	605.3

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Where Speck Bolzano shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

600 of 600 shots shown

40.8%

245 of 600 from the floor, 9 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 117 / 202 58% · avg 2.0 ft 58 of the 117 makes assisted league 60% 234pts

MID 51 / 140 36% · avg 14.4 ft 18 of the 51 makes assisted league 38% 102pts

THREE 77 / 258 30% · avg 25.1 ft 67 of the 77 makes assisted league 33% 231pts

245 of 600 from the floor, 567 points, + 105 from the line

The dots cover 9 of 19 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

143 of 245 makes were assisted (58%): 58 + 18 + 67.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 19 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 19 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Speck Bolzano

34% 23% 43%

League

34% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Speck Bolzano

33% 44% 18%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Speck Bolzano: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	196 drives + 36 post-ups + 261 catch and shoot + 107 pull-ups = 600

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Jerolim Anđelković PG 32 y

Solid41–60

Age: 32
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

36/80 shots 80.8 expected 90 scored ▲ +9.2

Gregory Farmer SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

64/151 shots 150.5 expected 150 scored ▼ −0.5

Alvin Barnes PG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 4

27/86 shots 85.9 expected 66 scored ▼ −19.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.