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Spilaia Kilkis

Founded 1949 in Kilkis

Gymnastirio tou Agiou Georgiou, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Spilaia Kilkis's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Spilaia Kilkis's points say about 11 wins in 13 league games. It has 12. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

12Wins so far

11.5Points say

83.1Scored a game

71.9Allowed a game

+11.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 080
Points allowed	935
Allowed ÷ scored	0.8657
To the power of 14	0.1329
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.1329)	88.27%
× 13 games played	11.48
Wins the points say	11.5 adds up

Wins so far	12
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Spilaia Kilkis won 3 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

112.0

Spilaia Kilkis score 112.0 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 106.1. That is 1st of 14.

SPK 112.0

League 106.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 080 points ÷ 964 possessions	112.0
League mean, 14 clubs	106.1
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

A solid defence

97.0

Spilaia Kilkis let in 97.0 per 100 trips against the league's 106.1. Lower is better: 1st of 14.

SPK 97.0

League 106.1

How we counted it

100 × 935 allowed ÷ 964 possessions	97.0
League mean, 14 clubs	106.1
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

53.1 %

Spilaia Kilkis shoot 53.1 % effective. The league shoots 51.4 %. That is 1st of 14.

SPK 53.1 %

League 51.4 %

How we counted it

Spilaia Kilkis: (393 + ½ × 128) ÷ 861	53.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	51.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Best shot-maker

Iosif Gür

#85 · PF

46/86shots

102points

+10.7vs expected

How we counted it

46 made of 86, 10 of them threes	46/86
Points: 2 × 46 + 10	102
His shots are worth (expected)	91.3
Above expected	102 − 91.3 = +10.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 1st of 14

SPK 53.1 %

League 51.4 %

How we counted it

Spilaia Kilkis: (393 + ½ × 128) ÷ 861	53.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	51.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 10th of 14

SPK 17.1 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Spilaia Kilkis: 165 ÷ 964 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 14

SPK 29.2 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Spilaia Kilkis: 128 ÷ (128 + 311)	29.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 14

SPK 24.2 %

League 22.4 %

How we counted it

Spilaia Kilkis: 208 tries ÷ 861 shots	24.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	22.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+10.4

Over 6 games Spilaia Kilkis's shots were worth 426.6 points and they scored 437 from the floor: 1.7 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+10.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 186 + 65	437
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	426.6
Shot-making	+10.4
A game	+1.74

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Spilaia Kilkis
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	9	0.61	5.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	4	0.61	2.4
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	8	0.61	4.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 284	2	0.61	1.2
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	13	0.72	9.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 236	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	9	0.82	7.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 232	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 406 league shots	29	0.75	21.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	5	0.73	3.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 541	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 806 league shots	60	1.20	71.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 259	7	1.24	8.7
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 271 league shots	24	1.36	32.6
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 259	5	1.24	6.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	14	1.25	17.5
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	3	1.25	3.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	2	1.25	2.5
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	11	1.27	13.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	1	1.27	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	7	1.27	8.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 232	1	1.27	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	7	1.25	8.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	3	1.25	3.8
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 796	1	1.25	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	4	1.03	4.1
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	3	1.03	3.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 397	3	1.03	3.1
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 1 351 league shots	100	1.02	101.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 216 league shots	18	0.96	17.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 228 league shots	15	1.18	17.8
Three · Pull-up33 % of 312 league shots	25	1.00	25.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 411	4	0.95	3.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 411	2	0.95	1.9
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 411	2	0.95	1.9
Total adds up	412	1.04	426.6

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Where Spilaia Kilkis shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

412 of 412 shots shown

45.1%

186 of 412 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 94 / 146 64% · avg 2.0 ft 53 of the 94 makes assisted league 62% 188pts

MID 27 / 90 30% · avg 14.3 ft 10 of the 27 makes assisted league 37% 54pts

THREE 65 / 176 37% · avg 25.2 ft 57 of the 65 makes assisted league 34% 195pts

186 of 412 from the floor, 437 points, + 68 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

120 of 186 makes were assisted (65%): 53 + 10 + 57.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Spilaia Kilkis

35% 22% 43%

League

33% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Spilaia Kilkis

31% 9% 40% 20%

League

31% 42% 20%

How we counted it

Spilaia Kilkis: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	129 drives + 36 post-ups + 165 catch and shoot + 82 pull-ups = 412

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Iosif Gür PF 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.7
Contract ends: End of season 2

46/86 shots 91.3 expected 102 scored ▲ +10.7

Sofoklis Hanke SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/59 shots 56.7 expected 65 scored ▲ +8.3

Theofanis Stojadinović Injured SG 25 y

Solid41–60

Age: 25
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 2

25/58 shots 60.9 expected 61 scored ▲ +0.1

Neofytos Quintana Injured PG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

31/74 shots 75.0 expected 74 scored ▼ −1.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.