Manage a club, start free

Staklari Paraćin

Founded 1969 in Paraćin

Dvorana na Crnici, holding 2 000

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Ahead of its points

Staklari Paraćin's wins run ahead of its points

+2.3 wins

Staklari Paraćin's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 7. The table has been a little kind.

7Wins so far

4.7Points say

76.8Scored a game

79.9Allowed a game

−3.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	998
Points allowed	1 039
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0411
To the power of 14	1.7571
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.7571)	36.27%
× 13 games played	4.72
Wins the points say	4.7 adds up

Wins so far	7
Difference	+2.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Staklari Paraćin won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Weakness

A leaky defence

108.7

Staklari Paraćin let in 108.7 per 100 trips against the league's 103.6. Lower is better: 13th of 14.

STP 108.7

League 103.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 039 allowed ÷ 956 possessions	108.7
League mean, 14 clubs	103.6
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

16.8 %

Staklari Paraćin give it away on 16.8 % of trips against the league's 17.4 %. Fewer is better: 3rd of 14.

STP 16.8 %

League 17.4 %

How we counted it

Staklari Paraćin: 160 ÷ 954 possessions	16.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

21.7

Staklari Paraćin attempt 21.7 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 25.1, so 12th of 14.

STP 21.7 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Staklari Paraćin: 182 tries ÷ 840 shots	21.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Đorđe Josipović

#77 · SG

52/87shots

129points

+38.4vs expected

How we counted it

52 made of 87, 25 of them threes	52/87
Points: 2 × 52 + 25	129
His shots are worth (expected)	90.6
Above expected	129 − 90.6 = +38.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 14

STP 51.3 %

League 50.3 %

How we counted it

Staklari Paraćin: (359 + ½ × 144) ÷ 840	51.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 3rd of 14

STP 16.8 %

League 17.4 %

How we counted it

Staklari Paraćin: 160 ÷ 954 possessions	16.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	17.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 14

STP 25.4 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Staklari Paraćin: 116 ÷ (116 + 341)	25.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 14

STP 21.7 %

League 25.1 %

How we counted it

Staklari Paraćin: 182 tries ÷ 840 shots	21.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+17.6

Over 6 games Staklari Paraćin's shots were worth 369.4 points and they scored 387 from the floor: 2.9 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+17.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 159 + 69	387
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	369.4
Shot-making	+17.6
A game	+2.94

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Staklari Paraćin
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive34 % of 224 league shots	7	0.69	4.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 315	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	9	0.71	6.4
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 36 % of 1 251	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	8	0.86	6.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	2	0.86	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 258	3	0.86	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 391 league shots	23	0.72	16.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	2	0.69	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	2	0.69	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 524	1	0.69	0.7
Rim · Drive60 % of 819 league shots	58	1.19	69.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	9	1.20	10.8
Rim · Drive · fast break60 % of 267 league shots	19	1.20	22.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 1 290	5	1.20	6.0
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	11	1.21	13.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	12	1.18	14.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 258	4	1.18	4.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 850	1	1.21	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	10	0.98	9.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	2	0.98	2.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 216	4	0.98	3.9
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 218 league shots	104	0.98	101.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance34 % of 202 league shots	10	1.02	10.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	13	0.97	12.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 645	2	0.97	2.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 307 league shots	30	0.97	29.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	2	1.00	2.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	6	1.00	6.0
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 407	2	1.00	2.0
Total adds up	366	1.01	369.4

⁠

Where Staklari Paraćin shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

366 of 366 shots shown

43.4%

159 of 366 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 68 / 120 57% · avg 2.1 ft 40 of the 68 makes assisted league 61% 136pts

MID 22 / 61 36% · avg 14.6 ft 9 of the 22 makes assisted league 37% 44pts

THREE 69 / 185 37% · avg 25.3 ft 60 of the 69 makes assisted league 32% 207pts

159 of 366 from the floor, 387 points, + 80 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

109 of 159 makes were assisted (69%): 40 + 9 + 60.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Staklari Paraćin

33% 17% 51%

League

35% 24% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Staklari Paraćin

32% 43% 19%

League

33% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Staklari Paraćin: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	116 drives + 23 post-ups + 158 catch and shoot + 69 pull-ups = 366

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Đorđe Josipović SG 31 y

Solid41–60

Age: 31
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 4

52/87 shots 90.6 expected 129 scored ▲ +38.4

Radenko Ćirković SF 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

31/63 shots 61.1 expected 86 scored ▲ +24.9

Gavrilo Bohinc PF 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

19/51 shots 50.7 expected 44 scored ▼ −6.7

A man is listed from 50 shots.