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Staliai Garliava

Founded 1949 in Garliava

Jiesios salė, holding 2 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Staliai Garliava's wins match its points

+0.4 wins

Staliai Garliava's points say about 14 wins in 22 league games. It has 14. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

14Wins so far

13.6Points say

82.1Scored a game

79.3Allowed a game

+2.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 806
Points allowed	1 744
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9657
To the power of 14	0.6132
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.6132)	61.99%
× 22 games played	13.64
Wins the points say	13.6 adds up

Wins so far	14
Difference	+0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Staliai Garliava won 4 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

112.2

Staliai Garliava score 112.2 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 107.1. That is 2nd of 12.

STG 112.2

League 107.1

How we counted it

100 × 1 806 points ÷ 1 609 possessions	112.2
League mean, 12 clubs	107.1
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Strength

Strong on the glass

30.4 %

Staliai Garliava win back 30.4 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.7 %. That is 2nd of 12.

STG 30.4 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Staliai Garliava: 232 ÷ (232 + 531)	30.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

52.0 %

Staliai Garliava shoot 52.0 % effective. The league shoots 51.3 %. That is 4th of 12.

STG 52.0 %

League 51.3 %

How we counted it

Staliai Garliava: (676 + ½ × 176) ÷ 1 469	52.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Best shot-maker

Aurimas Brodnik

#16 · SG

93/184shots

216points

+26.8vs expected

How we counted it

93 made of 184, 30 of them threes	93/184
Points: 2 × 93 + 30	216
His shots are worth (expected)	189.2
Above expected	216 − 189.2 = +26.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 12

STG 52.0 %

League 51.3 %

How we counted it

Staliai Garliava: (676 + ½ × 176) ÷ 1 469	52.0 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.3 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 4th of 12

STG 15.5 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Staliai Garliava: 249 ÷ 1 609 possessions	15.5 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	4th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 2nd of 12

STG 30.4 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Staliai Garliava: 232 ÷ (232 + 531)	30.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 5th of 12

STG 24.6 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Staliai Garliava: 361 tries ÷ 1 469 shots	24.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+27.6

Over 9 games Staliai Garliava's shots were worth 565.4 points and they scored 593 from the floor: 3.1 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+27.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 262 + 69	593
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	565.4
Shot-making	+27.6
A game	+3.07

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Staliai Garliava
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive39 % of 240 league shots	16	0.78	12.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 355	4	0.75	3.0
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 355	2	0.75	1.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 355	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 220	15	0.79	11.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 220	3	0.79	2.4
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 220	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 220	1	0.79	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot38 % of 263 league shots	19	0.75	14.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 336	4	0.81	3.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 336	4	0.81	3.2
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 336	1	0.81	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 513 league shots	64	0.80	51.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 680	9	0.79	7.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 680	8	0.79	6.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 680	1	0.79	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 154 league shots	87	1.21	105.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 728	12	1.22	14.6
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 354 league shots	26	1.23	31.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 728	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Post-up59 % of 239 league shots	18	1.17	21.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 309	2	1.17	2.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 309	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 201 league shots	14	1.25	17.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 324	8	1.28	10.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 324	5	1.28	6.4
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 476	10	1.22	12.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 476	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 476	1	1.22	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	5	0.99	5.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	1	0.99	1.0
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 2 989	4	0.99	4.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 683 league shots	121	1.05	127.5
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 287 league shots	25	0.92	23.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break32 % of 259 league shots	20	0.97	19.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 261	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Pull-up29 % of 416 league shots	28	0.87	24.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 539	7	0.87	6.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 539	4	0.87	3.5
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 539	1	0.87	0.9
Total adds up	558	1.01	565.4

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Where Staliai Garliava shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

626 of 626 shots shown

46.8%

293 of 626 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 149 / 214 70% · avg 2.1 ft 72 of the 149 makes assisted league 61% 298pts

MID 70 / 172 41% · avg 14.4 ft 32 of the 70 makes assisted league 39% 140pts

THREE 74 / 240 31% · avg 25.1 ft 64 of the 74 makes assisted league 33% 222pts

293 of 626 from the floor, 660 points, + 172 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

168 of 293 makes were assisted (57%): 72 + 32 + 64.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Staliai Garliava

34% 27% 39%

League

35% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Staliai Garliava

28% 8% 40% 24%

League

32% 41% 19%

Staliai Garliava lean on pull-ups: 24.2 % of its shots against the league's 18.9 %.

How we counted it

Staliai Garliava: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	156 drives + 45 post-ups + 222 catch and shoot + 135 pull-ups = 558

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Aurimas Brodnik SG 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.6
Contract ends: End of season 4

93/184 shots 189.2 expected 216 scored ▲ +26.8

Othon Ağaoğlu SF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

44/97 shots 95.3 expected 101 scored ▲ +5.7

Romas Klimavičius SG 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/54 shots 56.4 expected 61 scored ▲ +4.6

Denis Herzog PG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/57 shots 57.0 expected 55 scored ▼ −2.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.