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Štorklje Beltinci

Founded 1975 in Beltinci

Dvorana ob gradu, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Štorklje Beltinci's wins run ahead of its points

+1.0 wins

Štorklje Beltinci's points say about 13 wins in 18 league games. It has 14. The table has been a little kind.

14Wins so far

13.0Points say

73.9Scored a game

69.0Allowed a game

+4.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 18 league games	1 331
Points allowed	1 242
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9331
To the power of 14	0.3795
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.3795)	72.49%
× 18 games played	13.05
Wins the points say	13.0 adds up

Wins so far	14
Difference	+1.0 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Štorklje Beltinci won 4 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 18. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

96.5

Štorklje Beltinci let in 96.5 per 100 trips against the league's 99.8. Lower is better: 1st of 10.

STB 96.5

League 99.8

How we counted it

100 × 1 242 allowed ÷ 1 287 possessions	96.5
League mean, 10 clubs	99.8
Rank, 10 clubs	1st of 10

Strength

A strong attack

103.3

Štorklje Beltinci score 103.3 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 99.8. That is 3rd of 10.

STB 103.3

League 99.8

How we counted it

100 × 1 331 points ÷ 1 289 possessions	103.3
League mean, 10 clubs	99.8
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

21.1

Štorklje Beltinci attempt 21.1 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 20.1, so 3rd of 10.

STB 21.1 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Štorklje Beltinci: 250 tries ÷ 1 186 shots	21.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

Best shot-maker

Tim Mrak

#17 · PG

82/174shots

186points

+24.6vs expected

How we counted it

82 made of 174, 22 of them threes	82/174
Points: 2 × 82 + 22	186
His shots are worth (expected)	161.4
Above expected	186 − 161.4 = +24.6 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 10

STB 48.4 %

League 47.2 %

How we counted it

Štorklje Beltinci: (499 + ½ × 149) ÷ 1 186	48.4 %
League mean, 10 clubs	47.2 %
Rank, 10 clubs	4th of 10

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 10

STB 15.7 %

League 15.5 %

How we counted it

Štorklje Beltinci: 203 ÷ 1 289 possessions	15.7 %
League mean, 10 clubs	15.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	7th of 10

Reboundsown misses won back · 5th of 10

STB 26.9 %

League 25.5 %

How we counted it

Štorklje Beltinci: 173 ÷ (173 + 471)	26.9 %
League mean, 10 clubs	25.5 %
Rank, 10 clubs	5th of 10

Free throwstries per shot · 3rd of 10

STB 21.1 %

League 20.1 %

How we counted it

Štorklje Beltinci: 250 tries ÷ 1 186 shots	21.1 %
League mean, 10 clubs	20.1 %
Rank, 10 clubs	3rd of 10

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+23.5

Over 8 games Štorklje Beltinci's shots were worth 493.5 points and they scored 517 from the floor: 2.9 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+23.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 228 + 61	517
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	493.5
Shot-making	+23.5
A game	+2.94

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 18.

Štorklje Beltinci
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive37 % of 228 league shots	29	0.75	21.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	2	0.75	1.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	5	0.75	3.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 346	1	0.75	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	11	0.70	7.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 1 255	2	0.70	1.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot33 % of 217 league shots	27	0.66	17.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 287	5	0.66	3.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 287	5	0.66	3.3
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 378 league shots	40	0.75	29.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	9	0.73	6.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	2	0.73	1.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 490	1	0.73	0.7
Rim · Drive59 % of 852 league shots	89	1.18	105.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 290	19	1.21	23.0
Rim · Drive · fast break63 % of 254 league shots	24	1.27	30.4
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 290	4	1.21	4.9
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	8	1.20	9.6
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	3	1.20	3.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	14	1.20	16.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	6	1.20	7.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	4	1.20	4.8
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	2	1.20	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 60 % of 1 684	2	1.20	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	5	0.84	4.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 28 % of 2 151	1	0.84	0.8
Three · Catch and shoot28 % of 1 274 league shots	122	0.85	103.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance29 % of 214 league shots	26	0.88	23.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 1 673	15	0.83	12.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 1 673	2	0.83	1.7
Three · Pull-up30 % of 276 league shots	31	0.90	28.0
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 357	3	0.87	2.6
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 357	3	0.87	2.6
Total adds up	526	0.94	493.5

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Where Štorklje Beltinci shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

526 of 526 shots shown

43.3%

228 of 526 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 109 / 179 61% · avg 2.0 ft 54 of the 109 makes assisted league 60% 218pts

MID 58 / 139 42% · avg 15.0 ft 25 of the 58 makes assisted league 34% 116pts

THREE 61 / 208 29% · avg 25.3 ft 51 of the 61 makes assisted league 30% 183pts

228 of 526 from the floor, 517 points, + 83 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 18 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

130 of 228 makes were assisted (57%): 54 + 25 + 51.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 18 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 18 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Štorklje Beltinci

34% 26% 40%

League

33% 25% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Štorklje Beltinci

34% 43% 18%

League

34% 42% 18%

How we counted it

Štorklje Beltinci: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	178 drives + 26 post-ups + 225 catch and shoot + 97 pull-ups = 526

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Tim Mrak PG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

82/174 shots 161.4 expected 186 scored ▲ +24.6

Tadej Kranjc SG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/78 shots 71.3 expected 79 scored ▲ +7.7

Primož Klose C 30 y

Solid41–60

Age: 30
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

25/55 shots 52.3 expected 52 scored ▼ −0.3

Ivan Borković SG 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

34/95 shots 80.4 expected 80 scored ▼ −0.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.