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Sundfähre Stralsund

Founded 1974 in Stralsund

Hafeninsel-Halle, holding 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Sundfähre Stralsund's wins trail its points

−2.4 wins

Sundfähre Stralsund's points say about 8 wins in 13 league games. It has 6. The table has been a little unkind.

6Wins so far

8.4Points say

76.0Scored a game

72.8Allowed a game

+3.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	988
Points allowed	946
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9575
To the power of 14	0.5444
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5444)	64.75%
× 13 games played	8.42
Wins the points say	8.4 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	−2.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Sundfähre Stralsund won 0 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Safe with the ball

11.7 %

Sundfähre Stralsund give it away on 11.7 % of trips against the league's 15.1 %. Fewer is better: 1st of 14.

SFS 11.7 %

League 15.1 %

How we counted it

Sundfähre Stralsund: 110 ÷ 942 possessions	11.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Strength

A strong attack

104.9

Sundfähre Stralsund score 104.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 99.2. That is 3rd of 14.

SFS 104.9

League 99.2

How we counted it

100 × 988 points ÷ 942 possessions	104.9
League mean, 14 clubs	99.2
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Weakness

Weak on the glass

23.4 %

Sundfähre Stralsund win back 23.4 % of their misses. The league wins back 25.6 %. That is 10th of 14.

SFS 23.4 %

League 25.6 %

How we counted it

Sundfähre Stralsund: 121 ÷ (121 + 396)	23.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Best shot-maker

Gilbert Krämer

#75 · SG

46/103shots

106points

+14.0vs expected

How we counted it

46 made of 103, 14 of them threes	46/103
Points: 2 × 46 + 14	106
His shots are worth (expected)	92.0
Above expected	106 − 92.0 = +14.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 14

SFS 47.3 %

League 46.8 %

How we counted it

Sundfähre Stralsund: (364 + ½ × 125) ÷ 902	47.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	46.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 1st of 14

SFS 11.7 %

League 15.1 %

How we counted it

Sundfähre Stralsund: 110 ÷ 942 possessions	11.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	1st of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 10th of 14

SFS 23.4 %

League 25.6 %

How we counted it

Sundfähre Stralsund: 121 ÷ (121 + 396)	23.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	10th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 7th of 14

SFS 20.6 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Sundfähre Stralsund: 186 tries ÷ 902 shots	20.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−11.1

Over 6 games Sundfähre Stralsund's shots were worth 349.1 points and they scored 338 from the floor: 1.9 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−11.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 145 + 48	338
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	349.1
Shot-making	−11.1
A game	−1.86

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Sundfähre Stralsund
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive33 % of 219 league shots	16	0.67	10.7
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 332	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 332	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 332	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 1 368	7	0.64	4.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 1 368	1	0.64	0.6
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 1 368	2	0.64	1.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot29 % of 203 league shots	19	0.57	10.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 292	3	0.56	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 292	3	0.56	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up32 % of 460 league shots	40	0.64	25.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 606	7	0.64	4.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 606	5	0.64	3.2
Rim · Drive57 % of 838 league shots	51	1.15	58.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 272	7	1.15	8.0
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 235 league shots	13	1.17	15.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 272	2	1.15	2.3
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	5	1.16	5.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	3	1.16	3.5
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	13	1.16	15.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	1	1.16	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	3	1.16	3.5
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	3	1.16	3.5
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	2	1.16	2.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	2	1.16	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 29 % of 2 432	4	0.88	3.5
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 29 % of 2 432	1	0.88	0.9
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 29 % of 2 432	1	0.88	0.9
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 29 % of 2 432	1	0.88	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot28 % of 1 429 league shots	110	0.85	93.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance30 % of 243 league shots	19	0.90	17.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 1 883	16	0.87	13.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 292 league shots	20	0.90	18.1
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 394	6	0.91	5.5
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 394	3	0.91	2.7
Total adds up	398	0.88	349.1

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Where Sundfähre Stralsund shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

398 of 398 shots shown

36.4%

145 of 398 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 60 / 105 57% · avg 2.0 ft 22 of the 60 makes assisted league 58% 120pts

MID 37 / 112 33% · avg 14.8 ft 20 of the 37 makes assisted league 34% 74pts

THREE 48 / 181 27% · avg 25.5 ft 45 of the 48 makes assisted league 31% 144pts

145 of 398 from the floor, 338 points, + 69 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

87 of 145 makes were assisted (60%): 22 + 20 + 45.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Sundfähre Stralsund

26% 28% 45%

League

31% 25% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Sundfähre Stralsund

26% 47% 22%

League

32% 43% 20%

How we counted it

Sundfähre Stralsund: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	105 drives + 18 post-ups + 187 catch and shoot + 88 pull-ups = 398

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Gilbert Krämer SG 23 y

Solid41–60

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 2

46/103 shots 92.0 expected 106 scored ▲ +14.0

Arnold Boyle SF 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/108 shots 92.0 expected 93 scored ▲ +1.0

Gerald Kempf PF 27 y

Solid41–60

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 4

25/69 shots 57.5 expected 58 scored ▲ +0.5

A man is listed from 50 shots.