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Tarantas Linares

Founded 1979 in Linares

Pabellón de Cástulo, holding 1 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Tarantas Linares's wins match its points

+0.4 wins

Tarantas Linares's points say about 5 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

4.6Points say

76.9Scored a game

80.3Allowed a game

−3.4Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 000
Points allowed	1 044
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0440
To the power of 14	1.8273
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.8273)	35.37%
× 13 games played	4.60
Wins the points say	4.6 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+0.4 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Tarantas Linares won 1 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Weak on the glass

21.4 %

Tarantas Linares win back 21.4 % of their misses. The league wins back 24.9 %. That is 14th of 14.

TLI 21.4 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Tarantas Linares: 94 ÷ (94 + 345)	21.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

18.3

Tarantas Linares attempt 18.3 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.4, so 14th of 14.

TLI 18.3 %

League 23.4 %

How we counted it

Tarantas Linares: 154 tries ÷ 840 shots	18.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Safe with the ball

15.6 %

Tarantas Linares give it away on 15.6 % of trips against the league's 16.5 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 14.

TLI 15.6 %

League 16.5 %

How we counted it

Tarantas Linares: 148 ÷ 949 possessions	15.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Best shot-maker

Vidal Figueroa

#67 · SF

39/77shots

94points

+16.5vs expected

How we counted it

39 made of 77, 16 of them threes	39/77
Points: 2 × 39 + 16	94
His shots are worth (expected)	77.5
Above expected	94 − 77.5 = +16.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 14

TLI 52.6 %

League 50.8 %

How we counted it

Tarantas Linares: (375 + ½ × 133) ÷ 840	52.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	3rd of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 14

TLI 15.6 %

League 16.5 %

How we counted it

Tarantas Linares: 148 ÷ 949 possessions	15.6 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 14th of 14

TLI 21.4 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Tarantas Linares: 94 ÷ (94 + 345)	21.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 14th of 14

TLI 18.3 %

League 23.4 %

How we counted it

Tarantas Linares: 154 tries ÷ 840 shots	18.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

−5.1

Over 6 games Tarantas Linares's shots were worth 390.1 points and they scored 385 from the floor: 0.9 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

−5.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 165 + 55	385
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	390.1
Shot-making	−5.1
A game	−0.85

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Tarantas Linares
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 204 league shots	14	0.87	12.2
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 282	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 282	2	0.87	1.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 154	9	0.78	7.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 154	2	0.78	1.6
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 249	13	0.77	10.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 249	2	0.77	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 249	4	0.77	3.1
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 340 league shots	25	0.74	18.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 461	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 461	4	0.73	2.9
Rim · Drive60 % of 848 league shots	70	1.21	84.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 323	15	1.24	18.5
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 280 league shots	13	1.27	16.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 323	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 226	12	1.22	14.7
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 226	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 234	8	1.28	10.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 234	4	1.28	5.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 234	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 871	3	1.23	3.7
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 871	1	1.23	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 304	6	0.96	5.8
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 304	2	0.96	1.9
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 387 league shots	106	0.96	101.3
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 222 league shots	9	0.99	8.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 211 league shots	18	1.08	19.5
Three · Pull-up30 % of 267 league shots	27	0.91	24.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 347	4	0.94	3.8
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 347	1	0.94	0.9
Total adds up	384	1.02	390.1

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Where Tarantas Linares shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

384 of 384 shots shown

43.0%

165 of 384 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 77 / 132 58% · avg 2.0 ft 44 of the 77 makes assisted league 61% 154pts

MID 33 / 79 42% · avg 13.9 ft 11 of the 33 makes assisted league 39% 66pts

THREE 55 / 173 32% · avg 25.2 ft 47 of the 55 makes assisted league 33% 165pts

165 of 384 from the floor, 385 points, + 64 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

102 of 165 makes were assisted (62%): 44 + 11 + 47.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Tarantas Linares

34% 21% 45%

League

35% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Tarantas Linares

32% 43% 18%

League

32% 43% 17%

How we counted it

Tarantas Linares: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	124 drives + 27 post-ups + 165 catch and shoot + 68 pull-ups = 384

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Vidal Figueroa SF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

39/77 shots 77.5 expected 94 scored ▲ +16.5

Rodolfo Alcántara SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

48/110 shots 111.0 expected 116 scored ▲ +5.0

A man is listed from 50 shots.