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Tersaneler Kocaeli

Founded 1946 in Kocaeli

Körfez Salonu, holding 7 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Behind its points

Tersaneler Kocaeli's wins trail its points

−1.2 wins

Tersaneler Kocaeli's points say about 10 wins in 17 league games. It has 9. The table has been a little unkind.

9Wins so far

10.2Points say

80.0Scored a game

77.7Allowed a game

+2.3Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 360
Points allowed	1 321
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9713
To the power of 14	0.6654
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.6654)	60.04%
× 17 games played	10.21
Wins the points say	10.2 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	−1.2 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Tersaneler Kocaeli won 1 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A solid defence

104.5

Tersaneler Kocaeli let in 104.5 per 100 trips against the league's 109.8. Lower is better: 1st of 18.

TEK 104.5

League 109.8

How we counted it

100 × 1 321 allowed ÷ 1 264 possessions	104.5
League mean, 18 clubs	109.8
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

31.9

Tersaneler Kocaeli attempt 31.9 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.7, so 1st of 18.

TEK 31.9 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Tersaneler Kocaeli: 346 tries ÷ 1 084 shots	31.9 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

Weakness

Cold shooting

50.5 %

Tersaneler Kocaeli shoot 50.5 % effective. The league shoots 53.1 %. That is 16th of 18.

TEK 50.5 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Tersaneler Kocaeli: (479 + ½ × 137) ÷ 1 084	50.5 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	16th of 18

Best shot-maker

Stefano Aubert

#32 · PG

47/95shots

105points

+5.0vs expected

How we counted it

47 made of 95, 11 of them threes	47/95
Points: 2 × 47 + 11	105
His shots are worth (expected)	100.0
Above expected	105 − 100.0 = +5.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 16th of 18

TEK 50.5 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Tersaneler Kocaeli: (479 + ½ × 137) ÷ 1 084	50.5 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	16th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 18

TEK 17.1 %

League 17.4 %

How we counted it

Tersaneler Kocaeli: 217 ÷ 1 266 possessions	17.1 %
League mean, 18 clubs	17.4 %
Rank, 18 clubs	8th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 18

TEK 27.2 %

League 25.7 %

How we counted it

Tersaneler Kocaeli: 155 ÷ (155 + 414)	27.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	25.7 %
Rank, 18 clubs	9th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 18

TEK 31.9 %

League 26.7 %

How we counted it

Tersaneler Kocaeli: 346 tries ÷ 1 084 shots	31.9 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.7 %
Rank, 18 clubs	1st of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+10.4

Over 7 games Tersaneler Kocaeli's shots were worth 453.6 points and they scored 464 from the floor: 1.5 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+10.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 205 + 54	464
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	453.6
Shot-making	+10.4
A game	+1.49

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Tersaneler Kocaeli
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 289 league shots	20	0.80	16.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 438	3	0.85	2.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 438	8	0.85	6.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 238	12	0.76	9.1
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 238	1	0.76	0.8
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 38 % of 238	2	0.76	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot42 % of 302 league shots	8	0.83	6.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 412	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 412	2	0.84	1.7
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 583 league shots	32	0.81	25.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 782	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 782	6	0.78	4.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 782	1	0.78	0.8
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 256 league shots	71	1.22	86.4
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 932	12	1.24	14.9
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 437 league shots	25	1.32	33.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 932	3	1.24	3.7
Rim · Post-up63 % of 278 league shots	16	1.27	20.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 356	2	1.24	2.5
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 356	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 356	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot59 % of 259 league shots	17	1.19	20.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 398	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 398	3	1.28	3.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 856	8	1.24	9.9
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 856	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 62 % of 2 856	1	1.24	1.2
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 247	5	0.92	4.6
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 247	1	0.92	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot38 % of 1 889 league shots	92	1.13	104.2
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 279 league shots	10	0.92	9.2
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break41 % of 282 league shots	12	1.24	14.9
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 2 494	4	1.12	4.5
Three · Pull-up34 % of 468 league shots	23	1.01	23.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 608	3	1.04	3.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 608	5	1.04	5.2
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 608	1	1.04	1.0
Total adds up	419	1.08	453.6

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Where Tersaneler Kocaeli shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

482 of 482 shots shown

48.3%

233 of 482 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 117 / 188 62% · avg 2.0 ft 62 of the 117 makes assisted league 61% 234pts

MID 50 / 111 45% · avg 14.5 ft 20 of the 50 makes assisted league 41% 100pts

THREE 66 / 183 36% · avg 25.4 ft 63 of the 66 makes assisted league 35% 198pts

233 of 482 from the floor, 532 points, + 139 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

145 of 233 makes were assisted (62%): 62 + 20 + 63.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Tersaneler Kocaeli

39% 24% 37%

League

35% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Tersaneler Kocaeli

35% 8% 36% 20%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Tersaneler Kocaeli: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	148 drives + 35 post-ups + 152 catch and shoot + 84 pull-ups = 419

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Stefano Aubert PG 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

47/95 shots 100.0 expected 105 scored ▲ +5.0

Enes Ateş PF 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

26/59 shots 66.3 expected 63 scored ▼ −3.3

Refik Stanković PG 22 y

Solid41–60

Age: 22
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

29/67 shots 70.4 expected 67 scored ▼ −3.4

A man is listed from 50 shots.