Manage a club, start free

Tesoreros Villena

Founded 1984 in Villena

Pabellón de la Atalaya, holding 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Where the points say

Tesoreros Villena's wins match its points

−0.6 wins

Tesoreros Villena's points say about 4 wins in 13 league games. It has 3. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

3Wins so far

3.6Points say

70.3Scored a game

75.2Allowed a game

−4.9Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	914
Points allowed	978
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0700
To the power of 14	2.5793
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.5793)	27.94%
× 13 games played	3.63
Wins the points say	3.6 adds up

Wins so far	3
Difference	−0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Tesoreros Villena won 2 and lost 4. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Weakness

Cold shooting

45.1 %

Tesoreros Villena shoot 45.1 % effective. The league shoots 48.4 %. That is 14th of 14.

TVI 45.1 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Tesoreros Villena: (342 + ½ × 116) ÷ 886	45.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

A thin attack

96.9

Tesoreros Villena score 96.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 101.7. That is 13th of 14.

TVI 96.9

League 101.7

How we counted it

100 × 914 points ÷ 943 possessions	96.9
League mean, 14 clubs	101.7
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

Weakness

A leaky defence

104.2

Tesoreros Villena let in 104.2 per 100 trips against the league's 101.7. Lower is better: 12th of 14.

TVI 104.2

League 101.7

How we counted it

100 × 978 allowed ÷ 939 possessions	104.2
League mean, 14 clubs	101.7
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Best shot-maker

Paco Fatoki

#35 · SF

25/59shots

67points

+9.3vs expected

How we counted it

25 made of 59, 17 of them threes	25/59
Points: 2 × 25 + 17	67
His shots are worth (expected)	57.7
Above expected	67 − 57.7 = +9.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 14th of 14

TVI 45.1 %

League 48.4 %

How we counted it

Tesoreros Villena: (342 + ½ × 116) ÷ 886	45.1 %
League mean, 14 clubs	48.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 8th of 14

TVI 16.3 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Tesoreros Villena: 154 ÷ 943 possessions	16.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 7th of 14

TVI 27.7 %

League 26.9 %

How we counted it

Tesoreros Villena: 143 ÷ (143 + 374)	27.7 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 11th of 14

TVI 19.2 %

League 21.3 %

How we counted it

Tesoreros Villena: 170 tries ÷ 886 shots	19.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	21.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

Unlucky so far

Your shots have not paid off

−15.4

Over 6 games Tesoreros Villena's shots were worth 391.4 points and they scored 376 from the floor: 2.6 a game worse than the league would do from the same shots.

−15.4

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 160 + 56	376
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	391.4
Shot-making	−15.4
A game	−2.57

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Tesoreros Villena
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 228 league shots	13	0.73	9.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 326	5	0.71	3.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 326	4	0.71	2.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 1 211	7	0.67	4.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 1 211	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 1 211	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 270	17	0.67	11.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 270	5	0.67	3.4
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 270	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 270	1	0.67	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up32 % of 363 league shots	27	0.64	17.2
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 486	1	0.63	0.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 486	2	0.63	1.3
Rim · Drive60 % of 914 league shots	65	1.19	77.5
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 388	10	1.19	11.9
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 270 league shots	22	1.21	26.7
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 388	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 893	12	1.18	14.1
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 893	2	1.18	2.3
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 893	2	1.18	2.3
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 234	13	1.14	14.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 234	1	1.14	1.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 234	6	1.14	6.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 893	3	1.18	3.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 1 893	2	1.18	2.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 325	7	0.96	6.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 325	2	0.96	1.9
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 325	1	0.96	1.0
Three · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 325	1	0.96	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 368 league shots	93	0.98	90.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance27 % of 237 league shots	23	0.80	18.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break30 % of 218 league shots	19	0.91	17.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 865	4	0.95	3.8
Three · Pull-up32 % of 240 league shots	24	0.95	22.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 322	4	1.04	4.2
Total adds up	404	0.97	391.4

⁠

Where Tesoreros Villena shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

404 of 404 shots shown

39.6%

160 of 404 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 78 / 140 56% · avg 2.1 ft 41 of the 78 makes assisted league 59% 156pts

MID 26 / 86 30% · avg 14.9 ft 13 of the 26 makes assisted league 34% 52pts

THREE 56 / 178 32% · avg 25.0 ft 46 of the 56 makes assisted league 31% 168pts

160 of 404 from the floor, 376 points, + 56 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

100 of 160 makes were assisted (63%): 41 + 13 + 46.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Tesoreros Villena

35% 21% 44%

League

35% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Tesoreros Villena

32% 46% 16%

League

34% 44% 16%

How we counted it

Tesoreros Villena: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	131 drives + 26 post-ups + 184 catch and shoot + 63 pull-ups = 404

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Paco Fatoki SF 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

25/59 shots 57.7 expected 67 scored ▲ +9.3

Orlando Kremer PF 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 1

21/51 shots 50.6 expected 48 scored ▼ −2.6

Gregorio Cortez SG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

45/123 shots 117.2 expected 106 scored ▼ −11.2

A man is listed from 50 shots.