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Tonneliers Colmar

Founded 1952 in Colmar

Salle de la Lauch, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Ahead of its points

Tonneliers Colmar's wins run ahead of its points

+1.8 wins

Tonneliers Colmar's points say about 3 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. The table has been a little kind.

5Wins so far

3.2Points say

78.5Scored a game

85.2Allowed a game

−6.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	1 021
Points allowed	1 107
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0842
To the power of 14	3.1025
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 3.1025)	24.38%
× 13 games played	3.17
Wins the points say	3.2 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	+1.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Tonneliers Colmar won 1 and lost 0. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

116.5

Tonneliers Colmar let in 116.5 per 100 trips against the league's 108.2. Lower is better: 14th of 14.

TOC 116.5

League 108.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 107 allowed ÷ 950 possessions	116.5
League mean, 14 clubs	108.2
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Weak on the glass

19.9 %

Tonneliers Colmar win back 19.9 % of their misses. The league wins back 26.2 %. That is 14th of 14.

TOC 19.9 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Tonneliers Colmar: 81 ÷ (81 + 326)	19.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

55.5 %

Tonneliers Colmar shoot 55.5 % effective. The league shoots 51.9 %. That is 2nd of 14.

TOC 55.5 %

League 51.9 %

How we counted it

Tonneliers Colmar: (378 + ½ × 152) ÷ 818	55.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	51.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Best shot-maker

Roland Gauthier

#72 · SF

45/96shots

120points

+19.1vs expected

How we counted it

45 made of 96, 30 of them threes	45/96
Points: 2 × 45 + 30	120
His shots are worth (expected)	100.9
Above expected	120 − 100.9 = +19.1 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 14

TOC 55.5 %

League 51.9 %

How we counted it

Tonneliers Colmar: (378 + ½ × 152) ÷ 818	55.5 %
League mean, 14 clubs	51.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	2nd of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 14

TOC 17.3 %

League 16.2 %

How we counted it

Tonneliers Colmar: 164 ÷ 947 possessions	17.3 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	11th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 14th of 14

TOC 19.9 %

League 26.2 %

How we counted it

Tonneliers Colmar: 81 ÷ (81 + 326)	19.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	26.2 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 13th of 14

TOC 18.2 %

League 23.3 %

How we counted it

Tonneliers Colmar: 149 tries ÷ 818 shots	18.2 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.3 %
Rank, 14 clubs	13th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+43.0

Over 6 games Tonneliers Colmar's shots were worth 399.0 points and they scored 442 from the floor: 7.2 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+43.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 184 + 74	442
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	399.0
Shot-making	+43.0
A game	+7.16

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Tonneliers Colmar
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 271	8	0.80	6.4
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 271	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 271	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 271	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 192	6	0.74	4.5
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 192	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 210 league shots	10	0.79	7.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 278	1	0.80	0.8
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 278	2	0.80	1.6
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 373 league shots	23	0.72	16.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 496	2	0.72	1.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 496	2	0.72	1.4
Rim · Drive63 % of 820 league shots	62	1.26	78.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 273	5	1.28	6.4
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 276 league shots	15	1.33	19.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 1 273	3	1.28	3.9
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 216	18	1.19	21.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 216	2	1.19	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 216	3	1.19	3.6
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 213	4	1.24	5.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 213	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 795	4	1.27	5.1
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 795	1	1.27	1.3
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 63 % of 1 795	2	1.27	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 303	5	1.04	5.2
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 303	3	1.04	3.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 35 % of 2 303	1	1.04	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 338 league shots	121	1.06	128.1
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance31 % of 206 league shots	20	0.93	18.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break41 % of 203 league shots	16	1.23	19.6
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 1 778	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Pull-up32 % of 305 league shots	25	0.96	24.1
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 389	1	0.97	1.0
Total adds up	374	1.07	399.0

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Where Tonneliers Colmar shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

374 of 374 shots shown

49.2%

184 of 374 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 76 / 120 63% · avg 2.0 ft 34 of the 76 makes assisted league 62% 152pts

MID 34 / 60 57% · avg 14.9 ft 12 of the 34 makes assisted league 38% 68pts

THREE 74 / 194 38% · avg 25.3 ft 62 of the 74 makes assisted league 34% 222pts

184 of 374 from the floor, 442 points, + 50 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

108 of 184 makes were assisted (59%): 34 + 12 + 62.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Tonneliers Colmar

32% 16% 52%

League

34% 23% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Tonneliers Colmar

28% 8% 47% 16%

League

32% 43% 18%

How we counted it

Tonneliers Colmar: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	106 drives + 31 post-ups + 177 catch and shoot + 60 pull-ups = 374

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Roland Gauthier SF 36 y

Solid41–60

Age: 36
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 4

45/96 shots 100.9 expected 120 scored ▲ +19.1

Michel Okagbue PG 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

44/83 shots 87.7 expected 103 scored ▲ +15.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.