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Traineras San Sebastián

Founded 1941 in San Sebastián

Pabellón de Urgull, holding 6 500

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Traineras San Sebastián's wins match its points

+0.6 wins

Traineras San Sebastián's points say about 5 wins in 17 league games. It has 6. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

6Wins so far

5.4Points say

81.3Scored a game

85.8Allowed a game

−4.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 17 league games	1 382
Points allowed	1 459
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0557
To the power of 14	2.1363
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.1363)	31.88%
× 17 games played	5.42
Wins the points say	5.4 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	+0.6 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Traineras San Sebastián won 2 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 17. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

113.9

Traineras San Sebastián let in 113.9 per 100 trips against the league's 110.2. Lower is better: 16th of 18.

TSS 113.9

League 110.2

How we counted it

100 × 1 459 allowed ÷ 1 281 possessions	113.9
League mean, 18 clubs	110.2
Rank, 18 clubs	16th of 18

Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.7 %

Traineras San Sebastián give it away on 18.7 % of trips against the league's 17.5 %. Fewer is better: 14th of 18.

TSS 18.7 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Traineras San Sebastián: 240 ÷ 1 282 possessions	18.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	14th of 18

Weakness

Few trips to the line

25.0

Traineras San Sebastián attempt 25.0 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 26.8, so 13th of 18.

TSS 25.0 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Traineras San Sebastián: 274 tries ÷ 1 096 shots	25.0 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	13th of 18

Best shot-maker

Martín Castilho

#63 · PG

42/89shots

102points

+12.0vs expected

How we counted it

42 made of 89, 18 of them threes	42/89
Points: 2 × 42 + 18	102
His shots are worth (expected)	90.0
Above expected	102 − 90.0 = +12.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 18

TSS 53.2 %

League 53.1 %

How we counted it

Traineras San Sebastián: (496 + ½ × 175) ÷ 1 096	53.2 %
League mean, 18 clubs	53.1 %
Rank, 18 clubs	8th of 18

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 14th of 18

TSS 18.7 %

League 17.5 %

How we counted it

Traineras San Sebastián: 240 ÷ 1 282 possessions	18.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	17.5 %
Rank, 18 clubs	14th of 18

Reboundsown misses won back · 12th of 18

TSS 25.7 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Traineras San Sebastián: 147 ÷ (147 + 425)	25.7 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	12th of 18

Free throwstries per shot · 13th of 18

TSS 25.0 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Traineras San Sebastián: 274 tries ÷ 1 096 shots	25.0 %
League mean, 18 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 18 clubs	13th of 18

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+12.8

Over 8 games Traineras San Sebastián's shots were worth 542.2 points and they scored 555 from the floor: 1.6 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+12.8

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 236 + 83	555
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	542.2
Shot-making	+12.8
A game	+1.60

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 17.

Traineras San Sebastián
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 309 league shots	13	0.89	11.5
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	2	0.88	1.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	4	0.88	3.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 475	2	0.88	1.8
Mid-range · Post-up41 % of 202 league shots	10	0.81	8.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 313 league shots	16	0.72	11.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	1	0.72	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 437	3	0.72	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 662 league shots	38	0.80	30.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	3	0.82	2.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	6	0.82	4.9
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 897	2	0.82	1.6
Rim · Drive63 % of 1 355 league shots	64	1.25	80.1
Rim · Drive · second chance60 % of 233 league shots	15	1.20	18.0
Rim · Drive · fast break66 % of 487 league shots	37	1.33	49.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 2 154	4	1.26	5.1
Rim · Post-up60 % of 336 league shots	12	1.20	14.4
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 428	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Catch and shoot63 % of 313 league shots	15	1.25	18.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	4	1.22	4.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	8	1.22	9.7
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 469	1	1.22	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	3	1.29	3.9
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	4	1.29	5.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 224	1	1.29	1.3
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	14	1.06	14.9
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	2	1.06	2.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 277	3	1.06	3.2
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 879	2	1.02	2.0
Three · Catch and shoot34 % of 2 083 league shots	129	1.02	131.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 389 league shots	25	0.99	24.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 392 league shots	28	1.07	30.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 915	5	1.02	5.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 510 league shots	28	1.01	28.3
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 669	3	1.02	3.1
Total adds up	511	1.06	542.2

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Where Traineras San Sebastián shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

511 of 511 shots shown

46.2%

236 of 511 from the floor, 8 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 111 / 171 65% · avg 2.1 ft 57 of the 111 makes assisted league 63% 222pts

MID 42 / 100 42% · avg 14.8 ft 16 of the 42 makes assisted league 40% 84pts

THREE 83 / 240 35% · avg 25.3 ft 75 of the 83 makes assisted league 34% 249pts

236 of 511 from the floor, 555 points, + 115 from the line

The dots cover 8 of 17 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

148 of 236 makes were assisted (63%): 57 + 16 + 75.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 8 games whose streams are stored, of 17 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 17 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Traineras San Sebastián

33% 20% 47%

League

36% 22% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Traineras San Sebastián

31% 46% 17%

League

32% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Traineras San Sebastián: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	160 drives + 27 post-ups + 235 catch and shoot + 89 pull-ups = 511

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Martín Castilho PG 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

42/89 shots 90.0 expected 102 scored ▲ +12.0

Octavio Ríos PG 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

50/102 shots 109.1 expected 116 scored ▲ +6.9

Luciano Caballero PF 27 y

Strong61–80

Age: 27
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

43/85 shots 91.2 expected 98 scored ▲ +6.8

Hernán Cáceres SG 19 y

Solid41–60

Age: 19
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

33/84 shots 91.8 expected 83 scored ▼ −8.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.