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Tranqueras Nueve de Julio

Founded 1936 in Nueve de Julio

Gimnasio de la Plaza Mayor, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio's wins match its points

+0.3 wins

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio's points say about 13 wins in 22 league games. It has 13. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

13Wins so far

12.7Points say

81.5Scored a game

79.7Allowed a game

+1.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 794
Points allowed	1 754
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9777
To the power of 14	0.7293
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7293)	57.83%
× 22 games played	12.72
Wins the points say	12.7 adds up

Wins so far	13
Difference	+0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Tranqueras Nueve de Julio won 2 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

A strong attack

110.8

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio score 110.8 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 106.5. That is 1st of 12.

TNJ 110.8

League 106.5

How we counted it

100 × 1 794 points ÷ 1 619 possessions	110.8
League mean, 12 clubs	106.5
Rank, 12 clubs	1st of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

53.3 %

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio shoot 53.3 % effective. The league shoots 51.6 %. That is 2nd of 12.

TNJ 53.3 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio: (646 + ½ × 221) ÷ 1 419	53.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

27.4

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio attempt 27.4 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.0, so 2nd of 12.

TNJ 27.4 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio: 389 tries ÷ 1 419 shots	27.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Best shot-maker

Víctor Bonilla

#37 · SG

57/108shots

137points

+18.7vs expected

How we counted it

57 made of 108, 23 of them threes	57/108
Points: 2 × 57 + 23	137
His shots are worth (expected)	118.3
Above expected	137 − 118.3 = +18.7 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 2nd of 12

TNJ 53.3 %

League 51.6 %

How we counted it

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio: (646 + ½ × 221) ÷ 1 419	53.3 %
League mean, 12 clubs	51.6 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 5th of 12

TNJ 16.4 %

League 16.7 %

How we counted it

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio: 266 ÷ 1 619 possessions	16.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	5th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 6th of 12

TNJ 26.4 %

League 26.0 %

How we counted it

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio: 194 ÷ (194 + 541)	26.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	26.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	6th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 2nd of 12

TNJ 27.4 %

League 23.0 %

How we counted it

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio: 389 tries ÷ 1 419 shots	27.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+4.1

Over 9 games Tranqueras Nueve de Julio's shots were worth 605.9 points and they scored 610 from the floor: 0.5 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+4.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 261 + 88	610
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	605.9
Shot-making	+4.1
A game	+0.45

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive40 % of 275 league shots	14	0.79	11.1
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	3	0.83	2.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 380	2	0.83	1.6
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	12	0.74	8.9
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	2	0.74	1.5
Mid-range · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Post-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 219	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot36 % of 245 league shots	14	0.72	10.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 343	3	0.73	2.2
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 478 league shots	31	0.79	24.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 644	9	0.79	7.1
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 644	6	0.79	4.7
Rim · Drive61 % of 1 158 league shots	105	1.22	127.7
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 732	14	1.21	17.0
Rim · Drive · fast break61 % of 357 league shots	34	1.21	41.1
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 732	4	1.21	4.9
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	11	1.21	13.3
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	3	1.21	3.6
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 237	1	1.21	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	17	1.31	22.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	2	1.31	2.6
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 66 % of 309	9	1.31	11.8
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	9	1.23	11.1
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	2	1.23	2.5
Rim · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 399	2	1.23	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	16	1.02	16.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	3	1.02	3.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 3 003	1	1.02	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 797 league shots	149	1.04	155.0
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance30 % of 272 league shots	24	0.90	21.7
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break34 % of 294 league shots	32	1.01	32.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 2 404	4	1.03	4.1
Three · Pull-up28 % of 309 league shots	25	0.85	21.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 402	6	0.95	5.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 402	4	0.95	3.8
Total adds up	579	1.05	605.9

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Where Tranqueras Nueve de Julio shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

642 of 642 shots shown

45.6%

293 of 642 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 153 / 237 65% · avg 2.0 ft 68 of the 153 makes assisted league 60% 306pts

MID 40 / 110 36% · avg 14.4 ft 15 of the 40 makes assisted league 39% 80pts

THREE 100 / 295 34% · avg 25.3 ft 87 of the 100 makes assisted league 34% 300pts

293 of 642 from the floor, 686 points, + 141 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

170 of 293 makes were assisted (58%): 68 + 15 + 87.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio

37% 17% 46%

League

34% 23% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio

34% 44% 16%

League

33% 44% 17%

How we counted it

Tranqueras Nueve de Julio: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	199 drives + 31 post-ups + 254 catch and shoot + 95 pull-ups = 579

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Víctor Bonilla SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

57/108 shots 118.3 expected 137 scored ▲ +18.7

Mauro Parente SG 28 y

Strong61–80

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.5
Contract ends: End of season 3

59/119 shots 124.5 expected 141 scored ▲ +16.5

Cristóbal Rodrigues Injured PG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

44/106 shots 106.6 expected 104 scored ▼ −2.6

Leopoldo Ibiapina Injured SF 24 y

Solid41–60

Age: 24
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

27/67 shots 68.9 expected 66 scored ▼ −2.9

A man is listed from 50 shots.