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Trapiches Motril

Founded 1978 in Motril

Pabellón del Varadero, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Trapiches Motril's wins match its points

−0.8 wins

Trapiches Motril's points say about 6 wins in 13 league games. It has 5. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

5Wins so far

5.8Points say

76.3Scored a game

77.5Allowed a game

−1.2Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	992
Points allowed	1 007
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0151
To the power of 14	1.2338
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.2338)	44.77%
× 13 games played	5.82
Wins the points say	5.8 adds up

Wins so far	5
Difference	−0.8 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Trapiches Motril won 1 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

Careless with the ball

19.0 %

Trapiches Motril give it away on 19.0 % of trips against the league's 16.5 %. Fewer is better: 14th of 14.

TMO 19.0 %

League 16.5 %

How we counted it

Trapiches Motril: 184 ÷ 966 possessions	19.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Weakness

Few trips to the line

21.8

Trapiches Motril attempt 21.8 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 23.4, so 12th of 14.

TMO 21.8 %

League 23.4 %

How we counted it

Trapiches Motril: 180 tries ÷ 825 shots	21.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

52.4 %

Trapiches Motril shoot 52.4 % effective. The league shoots 50.8 %. That is 4th of 14.

TMO 52.4 %

League 50.8 %

How we counted it

Trapiches Motril: (376 + ½ × 113) ÷ 825	52.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Best shot-maker

Teodoro Pacheco

#42 · PG

37/76shots

90points

+15.8vs expected

How we counted it

37 made of 76, 16 of them threes	37/76
Points: 2 × 37 + 16	90
His shots are worth (expected)	74.2
Above expected	90 − 74.2 = +15.8 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 4th of 14

TMO 52.4 %

League 50.8 %

How we counted it

Trapiches Motril: (376 + ½ × 113) ÷ 825	52.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	50.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 14th of 14

TMO 19.0 %

League 16.5 %

How we counted it

Trapiches Motril: 184 ÷ 966 possessions	19.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	16.5 %
Rank, 14 clubs	14th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 14

TMO 24.4 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Trapiches Motril: 107 ÷ (107 + 331)	24.4 %
League mean, 14 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 14 clubs	9th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 12th of 14

TMO 21.8 %

League 23.4 %

How we counted it

Trapiches Motril: 180 tries ÷ 825 shots	21.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	23.4 %
Rank, 14 clubs	12th of 14

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off

+33.6

Over 6 games Trapiches Motril's shots were worth 376.4 points and they scored 410 from the floor: 5.6 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+33.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 178 + 54	410
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	376.4
Shot-making	+33.6
A game	+5.61

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Trapiches Motril
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive44 % of 204 league shots	19	0.87	16.6
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 282	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 282	4	0.87	3.5
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 43 % of 282	1	0.87	0.9
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 154	9	0.78	7.0
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 39 % of 1 154	3	0.78	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 249	18	0.77	13.9
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 249	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 249	1	0.77	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up37 % of 340 league shots	28	0.74	20.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 461	5	0.73	3.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 461	4	0.73	2.9
Rim · Drive60 % of 848 league shots	53	1.21	64.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 323	13	1.24	16.0
Rim · Drive · fast break64 % of 280 league shots	18	1.27	22.9
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 1 323	5	1.24	6.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 226	16	1.22	19.5
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 226	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 234	9	1.28	11.5
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 234	1	1.28	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 64 % of 234	2	1.28	2.6
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 871	1	1.23	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 1 871	2	1.23	2.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 304	6	0.96	5.8
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 304	1	0.96	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 304	1	0.96	1.0
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 2 304	1	0.96	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot32 % of 1 387 league shots	98	0.96	93.7
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance33 % of 222 league shots	12	0.99	11.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break36 % of 211 league shots	17	1.08	18.4
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 1 832	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Pull-up30 % of 267 league shots	14	0.91	12.7
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 347	1	0.94	0.9
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 347	3	0.94	2.8
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 347	1	0.94	0.9
Total adds up	374	1.01	376.4

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Where Trapiches Motril shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

374 of 374 shots shown

47.6%

178 of 374 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 82 / 122 67% · avg 2.1 ft 49 of the 82 makes assisted league 61% 164pts

MID 42 / 96 44% · avg 14.3 ft 19 of the 42 makes assisted league 39% 84pts

THREE 54 / 156 35% · avg 25.0 ft 50 of the 54 makes assisted league 33% 162pts

178 of 374 from the floor, 410 points, + 75 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

118 of 178 makes were assisted (66%): 49 + 19 + 50.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Trapiches Motril

33% 26% 42%

League

35% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Trapiches Motril

33% 8% 43% 16%

League

32% 43% 17%

How we counted it

Trapiches Motril: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	123 drives + 30 post-ups + 162 catch and shoot + 59 pull-ups = 374

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Teodoro Pacheco PG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.1
Contract ends: End of season 3

37/76 shots 74.2 expected 90 scored ▲ +15.8

Víctor Machado SG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 2

32/81 shots 78.3 expected 76 scored ▼ −2.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.