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Troperos Villa Mercedes

Founded 1921 in Villa Mercedes

Gimnasio del Río Quinto, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Troperos Villa Mercedes's wins match its points

+0.3 wins

Troperos Villa Mercedes's points say about 6 wins in 22 league games. It has 6. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

6Wins so far

5.7Points say

71.7Scored a game

77.3Allowed a game

−5.6Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 577
Points allowed	1 700
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0780
To the power of 14	2.8618
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 2.8618)	25.89%
× 22 games played	5.70
Wins the points say	5.7 adds up

Wins so far	6
Difference	+0.3 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Troperos Villa Mercedes won 3 and lost 2. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A thin attack

97.7

Troperos Villa Mercedes score 97.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 103.7. That is 11th of 12.

TVM 97.7

League 103.7

How we counted it

100 × 1 577 points ÷ 1 614 possessions	97.7
League mean, 12 clubs	103.7
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

Careless with the ball

18.1 %

Troperos Villa Mercedes give it away on 18.1 % of trips against the league's 16.4 %. Fewer is better: 11th of 12.

TVM 18.1 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Troperos Villa Mercedes: 292 ÷ 1 614 possessions	18.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Weakness

Weak on the glass

22.1 %

Troperos Villa Mercedes win back 22.1 % of their misses. The league wins back 24.9 %. That is 11th of 12.

TVM 22.1 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Troperos Villa Mercedes: 168 ÷ (168 + 592)	22.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Best shot-maker

Osvaldo Armas

#97 · PG

72/152shots

170points

+15.3vs expected

How we counted it

72 made of 152, 26 of them threes	72/152
Points: 2 × 72 + 26	170
His shots are worth (expected)	154.7
Above expected	170 − 154.7 = +15.3 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 9th of 12

TVM 49.4 %

League 49.9 %

How we counted it

Troperos Villa Mercedes: (603 + ½ × 178) ÷ 1 400	49.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	49.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 11th of 12

TVM 18.1 %

League 16.4 %

How we counted it

Troperos Villa Mercedes: 292 ÷ 1 614 possessions	18.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 11th of 12

TVM 22.1 %

League 24.9 %

How we counted it

Troperos Villa Mercedes: 168 ÷ (168 + 592)	22.1 %
League mean, 12 clubs	24.9 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 11th of 12

TVM 19.9 %

League 23.8 %

How we counted it

Troperos Villa Mercedes: 278 tries ÷ 1 400 shots	19.9 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.8 %
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+15.0

Over 9 games Troperos Villa Mercedes's shots were worth 563.0 points and they scored 578 from the floor: 1.7 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+15.0

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 250 + 78	578
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	563.0
Shot-making	+15.0
A game	+1.66

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Troperos Villa Mercedes
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive36 % of 276 league shots	19	0.72	13.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	4	0.78	3.1
Mid-range · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 388	1	0.78	0.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	9	0.74	6.7
Mid-range · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 1 550	1	0.74	0.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot40 % of 251 league shots	13	0.80	10.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 324	3	0.77	2.3
Mid-range · Pull-up36 % of 504 league shots	52	0.72	37.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	6	0.73	4.4
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 656	3	0.73	2.2
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 115 league shots	100	1.19	119.3
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 722	13	1.23	16.0
Rim · Drive · fast break68 % of 353 league shots	26	1.37	35.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 61 % of 1 722	4	1.23	4.9
Rim · Post-up63 % of 202 league shots	11	1.26	13.8
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 264	2	1.26	2.5
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 264	3	1.26	3.8
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	10	1.20	12.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	6	1.20	7.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 60 % of 290	1	1.20	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	5	1.22	6.1
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	2	1.22	2.4
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 61 % of 2 396	2	1.22	2.4
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	11	0.98	10.8
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	6	0.98	5.9
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 33 % of 3 030	1	0.98	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot33 % of 1 749 league shots	153	0.99	150.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance32 % of 257 league shots	20	0.96	19.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break35 % of 271 league shots	19	1.04	19.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 2 307	4	0.99	4.0
Three · Pull-up32 % of 392 league shots	27	0.96	25.8
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	5	0.94	4.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	7	0.94	6.6
Three · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 31 % of 515	1	0.94	0.9
Total adds up	555	1.01	563.0

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Where Troperos Villa Mercedes shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

619 of 619 shots shown

44.3%

274 of 619 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 145 / 216 67% · avg 2.0 ft 88 of the 145 makes assisted league 61% 290pts

MID 49 / 127 39% · avg 14.4 ft 21 of the 49 makes assisted league 37% 98pts

THREE 80 / 276 29% · avg 25.3 ft 71 of the 80 makes assisted league 32% 240pts

274 of 619 from the floor, 628 points, + 107 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

180 of 274 makes were assisted (66%): 88 + 21 + 71.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Troperos Villa Mercedes

34% 21% 46%

League

34% 22% 43%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Troperos Villa Mercedes

33% 42% 20%

League

33% 42% 19%

How we counted it

Troperos Villa Mercedes: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	185 drives + 27 post-ups + 233 catch and shoot + 110 pull-ups = 555

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Osvaldo Armas PG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

72/152 shots 154.7 expected 170 scored ▲ +15.3

Daniel Calvo Injured SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

30/69 shots 65.3 expected 76 scored ▲ +10.7

Fidel Bragança SG 21 y

Solid41–60

Age: 21
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.0
Contract ends: End of season 3

32/62 shots 66.2 expected 69 scored ▲ +2.8

Isaakios Akalın SF 33 y

Solid41–60

Age: 33
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 4

28/69 shots 68.4 expected 68 scored ▼ −0.4

Horacio Valim SF 26 y

Solid41–60

Age: 26
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

22/60 shots 59.6 expected 51 scored ▼ −8.6

A man is listed from 50 shots.