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Truchas Río Grande

Founded 1967 in Río Grande

Gimnasio de la Misión Salesiana, holding 2 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Truchas Río Grande's wins match its points

−0.1 wins

Truchas Río Grande's points say about 8 wins in 22 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.1Points say

78.0Scored a game

81.1Allowed a game

−3.0Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 22 league games	1 717
Points allowed	1 784
Allowed ÷ scored	1.0390
To the power of 14	1.7090
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 1.7090)	36.91%
× 22 games played	8.12
Wins the points say	8.1 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.1 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Truchas Río Grande won 4 and lost 6. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 22. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Weakness

A leaky defence

109.6

Truchas Río Grande let in 109.6 per 100 trips against the league's 105.6. Lower is better: 11th of 12.

TRG 109.6

League 105.6

How we counted it

100 × 1 784 allowed ÷ 1 627 possessions	109.6
League mean, 12 clubs	105.6
Rank, 12 clubs	11th of 12

Strength

Safe with the ball

14.7 %

Truchas Río Grande give it away on 14.7 % of trips against the league's 16.0 %. Fewer is better: 2nd of 12.

TRG 14.7 %

League 16.0 %

How we counted it

Truchas Río Grande: 239 ÷ 1 625 possessions	14.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Strength

Hot shooting

51.4 %

Truchas Río Grande shoot 51.4 % effective. The league shoots 50.7 %. That is 3rd of 12.

TRG 51.4 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Truchas Río Grande: (653 + ½ × 199) ÷ 1 464	51.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Best shot-maker

Éliott Duval

#74 · PG

112/223shots

264points

+33.5vs expected

How we counted it

112 made of 223, 40 of them threes	112/223
Points: 2 × 112 + 40	264
His shots are worth (expected)	230.5
Above expected	264 − 230.5 = +33.5 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 3rd of 12

TRG 51.4 %

League 50.7 %

How we counted it

Truchas Río Grande: (653 + ½ × 199) ÷ 1 464	51.4 %
League mean, 12 clubs	50.7 %
Rank, 12 clubs	3rd of 12

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 2nd of 12

TRG 14.7 %

League 16.0 %

How we counted it

Truchas Río Grande: 239 ÷ 1 625 possessions	14.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	16.0 %
Rank, 12 clubs	2nd of 12

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 12

TRG 23.6 %

League 25.4 %

How we counted it

Truchas Río Grande: 188 ÷ (188 + 608)	23.6 %
League mean, 12 clubs	25.4 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

Free throwstries per shot · 9th of 12

TRG 21.7 %

League 23.2 %

How we counted it

Truchas Río Grande: 318 tries ÷ 1 464 shots	21.7 %
League mean, 12 clubs	23.2 %
Rank, 12 clubs	9th of 12

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+19.5

Over 9 games Truchas Río Grande's shots were worth 590.5 points and they scored 610 from the floor: 2.2 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+19.5

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 263 + 84	610
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	590.5
Shot-making	+19.5
A game	+2.17

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 22.

Truchas Río Grande
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive38 % of 263 league shots	17	0.76	12.9
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 375	1	0.71	0.7
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 375	4	0.71	2.8
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 38 % of 1 637	10	0.75	7.5
Mid-range · Catch and shoot35 % of 253 league shots	13	0.70	9.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 340	4	0.75	3.0
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 340	1	0.75	0.7
Mid-range · Pull-up40 % of 557 league shots	70	0.79	55.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 762	12	0.79	9.5
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 39 % of 762	6	0.79	4.7
Rim · Drive58 % of 1 195 league shots	112	1.15	129.0
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 768	8	1.18	9.4
Rim · Drive · fast break65 % of 352 league shots	27	1.30	35.0
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 1 768	1	1.18	1.2
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 247	23	1.17	27.0
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 247	2	1.17	2.4
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 59 % of 247	1	1.17	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 254	9	1.24	11.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 254	1	1.24	1.2
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 62 % of 254	7	1.24	8.7
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 2 379	6	1.19	7.1
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 59 % of 2 379	3	1.19	3.6
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 960	10	1.03	10.3
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 960	4	1.03	4.1
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 960	2	1.03	2.1
Three · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 34 % of 2 960	1	1.03	1.0
Three · Catch and shoot35 % of 1 664 league shots	121	1.04	125.4
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance35 % of 265 league shots	24	1.04	25.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 236 league shots	22	1.16	25.5
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 35 % of 2 194	1	1.05	1.1
Three · Pull-up34 % of 437 league shots	38	1.02	38.6
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 560	7	1.00	7.0
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 33 % of 560	7	1.00	7.0
Total adds up	575	1.03	590.5

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Where Truchas Río Grande shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

647 of 647 shots shown

46.1%

298 of 647 from the floor, 10 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 143 / 219 65% · avg 2.0 ft 68 of the 143 makes assisted league 60% 286pts

MID 64 / 167 38% · avg 14.6 ft 20 of the 64 makes assisted league 38% 128pts

THREE 91 / 261 35% · avg 25.3 ft 74 of the 91 makes assisted league 34% 273pts

298 of 647 from the floor, 687 points, + 104 from the line

The dots cover 10 of 22 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

162 of 298 makes were assisted (54%): 68 + 20 + 74.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 9 games whose streams are stored, of 22 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 22 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Truchas Río Grande

35% 24% 41%

League

34% 23% 42%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Truchas Río Grande

33% 35% 26%

League

34% 40% 21%

Truchas Río Grande lean on pull-ups: 25.9 % of its shots against the league's 20.5 %.

How we counted it

Truchas Río Grande: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	187 drives + 36 post-ups + 203 catch and shoot + 149 pull-ups = 575

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Éliott Duval PG 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.4
Contract ends: End of season 3

112/223 shots 230.5 expected 264 scored ▲ +33.5

Elías Carrasco PG 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

28/63 shots 61.2 expected 62 scored ▲ +0.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.