Manage a club, start free

Tuchmacher Neumünster

Founded 1948 in Neumünster

Schwale-Halle, holding 500

⁠

Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

See all terms

Where the points say

Tuchmacher Neumünster's wins match its points

−0.7 wins

Tuchmacher Neumünster's points say about 9 wins in 13 league games. It has 8. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

8Wins so far

8.7Points say

73.5Scored a game

70.0Allowed a game

+3.5Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 13 league games	956
Points allowed	910
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9519
To the power of 14	0.5014
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.5014)	66.61%
× 13 games played	8.66
Wins the points say	8.7 adds up

Wins so far	8
Difference	−0.7 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Tuchmacher Neumünster won 3 and lost 1. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 13. It is final when the season closes.

⁠

The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

See all terms

Strength

A solid defence

96.8

Tuchmacher Neumünster let in 96.8 per 100 trips against the league's 99.2. Lower is better: 4th of 14.

TMN 96.8

League 99.2

How we counted it

100 × 910 allowed ÷ 940 possessions	96.8
League mean, 14 clubs	99.2
Rank, 14 clubs	4th of 14

Strength

A strong attack

101.9

Tuchmacher Neumünster score 101.9 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 99.2. That is 5th of 14.

TMN 101.9

League 99.2

How we counted it

100 × 956 points ÷ 938 possessions	101.9
League mean, 14 clubs	99.2
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Strength

Hot shooting

48.0 %

Tuchmacher Neumünster shoot 48.0 % effective. The league shoots 46.8 %. That is 5th of 14.

TMN 48.0 %

League 46.8 %

How we counted it

Tuchmacher Neumünster: (356 + ½ × 116) ÷ 862	48.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	46.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Best shot-maker

Nelson Dourado

#88 · SG

44/99shots

103points

+15.0vs expected

How we counted it

44 made of 99, 15 of them threes	44/99
Points: 2 × 44 + 15	103
His shots are worth (expected)	88.0
Above expected	103 − 88.0 = +15.0 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 5th of 14

TMN 48.0 %

League 46.8 %

How we counted it

Tuchmacher Neumünster: (356 + ½ × 116) ÷ 862	48.0 %
League mean, 14 clubs	46.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	5th of 14

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 7th of 14

TMN 14.9 %

League 15.1 %

How we counted it

Tuchmacher Neumünster: 140 ÷ 938 possessions	14.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	15.1 %
Rank, 14 clubs	7th of 14

Reboundsown misses won back · 8th of 14

TMN 24.9 %

League 25.6 %

How we counted it

Tuchmacher Neumünster: 120 ÷ (120 + 361)	24.9 %
League mean, 14 clubs	25.6 %
Rank, 14 clubs	8th of 14

Free throwstries per shot · 6th of 14

TMN 20.8 %

League 18.8 %

How we counted it

Tuchmacher Neumünster: 179 tries ÷ 862 shots	20.8 %
League mean, 14 clubs	18.8 %
Rank, 14 clubs	6th of 14

⁠

Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

See all terms

As expected

Right on what the shots are worth

+10.6

Over 6 games Tuchmacher Neumünster's shots were worth 345.4 points and they scored 356 from the floor: 1.8 a game in line with what than the league would do from the same shots.

+10.6

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 150 + 56	356
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	345.4
Shot-making	+10.6
A game	+1.77

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 13.

Tuchmacher Neumünster
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Drive33 % of 219 league shots	18	0.67	12.0
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 332	2	0.67	1.3
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 34 % of 332	4	0.67	2.7
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 32 % of 1 368	1	0.64	0.6
Mid-range · Catch and shoot29 % of 203 league shots	17	0.57	9.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 292	2	0.56	1.1
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 28 % of 292	5	0.56	2.8
Mid-range · Pull-up32 % of 460 league shots	23	0.64	14.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 606	4	0.64	2.6
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 606	5	0.64	3.2
Rim · Drive57 % of 838 league shots	61	1.15	69.9
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 272	11	1.15	12.6
Rim · Drive · fast break58 % of 235 league shots	21	1.17	24.5
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 57 % of 1 272	5	1.15	5.7
Rim · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	5	1.16	5.8
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	1	1.16	1.2
Rim · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	5	1.16	5.8
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	7	1.16	8.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	1	1.16	1.2
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	2	1.16	2.3
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	1	1.16	1.2
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 58 % of 1 715	3	1.16	3.5
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 29 % of 2 432	7	0.88	6.1
Three · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 29 % of 2 432	1	0.88	0.9
Three · Catch and shoot28 % of 1 429 league shots	110	0.85	93.8
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance30 % of 243 league shots	20	0.90	18.0
Three · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 1 883	13	0.87	11.3
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 29 % of 1 883	1	0.87	0.9
Three · Pull-up30 % of 292 league shots	17	0.90	15.4
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 394	3	0.91	2.7
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 30 % of 394	4	0.91	3.7
Total adds up	380	0.91	345.4

⁠

Where Tuchmacher Neumünster shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

See all terms

Every shot this season

380 of 380 shots shown

39.5%

150 of 380 from the floor, 6 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 72 / 123 59% · avg 1.9 ft 36 of the 72 makes assisted league 58% 144pts

MID 22 / 81 27% · avg 14.6 ft 10 of the 22 makes assisted league 34% 44pts

THREE 56 / 176 32% · avg 25.2 ft 49 of the 56 makes assisted league 31% 168pts

150 of 380 from the floor, 356 points, + 60 from the line

The dots cover 6 of 13 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

95 of 150 makes were assisted (63%): 36 + 10 + 49.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 6 games whose streams are stored, of 13 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 13 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Tuchmacher Neumünster

32% 21% 46%

League

31% 25% 44%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Tuchmacher Neumünster

34% 48% 16%

League

32% 43% 20%

How we counted it

Tuchmacher Neumünster: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	129 drives + 8 post-ups + 181 catch and shoot + 62 pull-ups = 380

⁠

Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

See all terms

Nelson Dourado SG 28 y

Solid41–60

Age: 28
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 1

44/99 shots 88.0 expected 103 scored ▲ +15.0

Bernd Gaillard SG 29 y

Solid41–60

Age: 29
Potential: Solid (41–60)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 4

34/84 shots 74.6 expected 84 scored ▲ +9.4

Barry Compton PF 20 y

Solid41–60

Age: 20
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.3
Contract ends: End of season 3

22/53 shots 50.8 expected 48 scored ▼ −2.8

A man is listed from 50 shots.