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Tvrđava Niš

Founded 1946 in Niš

Dvorana na Nišavi, holding 11 000

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Wins the points say

Expected wins

The wins a club's points scored and allowed say it should have, by the Pythagorean share: wins follow the points a team scores and allows, to the power of 14 for basketball (Daryl Morey's fit). A club's wins minus its expected wins is how far the table runs from its points.

Over a whole season the two agree closely, and a club far from its expected wins is usually one that won or lost more than its share of close games. It changes nothing in the standings; it is a reading of them.

Nothing to fix in the table itself: a club behind its points is probably better than its record, one ahead of them probably flatters itself. Close-game results settle over a season.

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Where the points say

Tvrđava Niš's wins match its points

+0.5 wins

Tvrđava Niš's points say about 9 wins in 15 league games. It has 9. A gap under 1 win says nothing yet.

9Wins so far

8.5Points say

90.3Scored a game

88.5Allowed a game

+1.8Margin

How we counted it

Points scored, 15 league games	1 355
Points allowed	1 328
Allowed ÷ scored	0.9801
To the power of 14	0.7544
Share of wins: 1 ÷ (1 + 0.7544)	57.00%
× 15 games played	8.55
Wins the points say	8.5 adds up

Wins so far	9
Difference	+0.5 adds up

Close games. Decided by 5 points or fewer, overtime included: Tvrđava Niš won 4 and lost 3. It is a fact, not part of the sum above.

Why 14. Bill James found that a team's wins follow the points it scores and allows. Daryl Morey fitted the same idea to basketball and found an exponent of about 14, and Dean Oliver's work on basketball analytics lands in the same place. It is a guide, not a law: a team that loses its close games runs below it, one that wins them runs above.

Regular season only, through round 15. It is final when the season closes.

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The season in three lines

The four factors

The four things that decide a basketball game, after Dean Oliver: shooting (effective field goal %, which counts a three as one and a half), turnovers (the share of trips thrown away), rebounds (the share of own misses won back) and free throws (tries per shot). The bars show each club against the other, and the club page shows it against the league.

They add up to the margin: the report's three cards are the factors that moved the score most, in points.

Work on the factor the card calls costly: ball handlers and the tempo for turnovers, bigs for rebounds, drivers for the line.

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Strength

Plenty of trips to the line

36.9

Tvrđava Niš attempt 36.9 free throws per 100 shots. The league attempts 32.1, so 1st of 16.

TVN 36.9 %

League 32.1 %

How we counted it

Tvrđava Niš: 349 tries ÷ 946 shots	36.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	32.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

Strength

A strong attack

116.7

Tvrđava Niš score 116.7 points for every 100 trips. The league scores 114.0. That is 5th of 16.

TVN 116.7

League 114.0

How we counted it

100 × 1 355 points ÷ 1 161 possessions	116.7
League mean, 16 clubs	114.0
Rank, 16 clubs	5th of 16

Strength

Safe with the ball

18.7 %

Tvrđava Niš give it away on 18.7 % of trips against the league's 18.9 %. Fewer is better: 5th of 16.

TVN 18.7 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Tvrđava Niš: 217 ÷ 1 161 possessions	18.7 %
League mean, 16 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	5th of 16

Best shot-maker

Boban Černigoj

#51 · SF

38/68shots

90points

+15.4vs expected

How we counted it

38 made of 68, 14 of them threes	38/68
Points: 2 × 38 + 14	90
His shots are worth (expected)	74.6
Above expected	90 − 74.6 = +15.4 adds up

Four factors

Shootingeffective field goal % · 8th of 16

TVN 55.5 %

League 55.7 %

How we counted it

Tvrđava Niš: (445 + ½ × 160) ÷ 946	55.5 %
League mean, 16 clubs	55.7 %
Rank, 16 clubs	8th of 16

Turnoverstrips lost, fewer is better · 5th of 16

TVN 18.7 %

League 18.9 %

How we counted it

Tvrđava Niš: 217 ÷ 1 161 possessions	18.7 %
League mean, 16 clubs	18.9 %
Rank, 16 clubs	5th of 16

Reboundsown misses won back · 9th of 16

TVN 26.0 %

League 26.8 %

How we counted it

Tvrđava Niš: 125 ÷ (125 + 355)	26.0 %
League mean, 16 clubs	26.8 %
Rank, 16 clubs	9th of 16

Free throwstries per shot · 1st of 16

TVN 36.9 %

League 32.1 %

How we counted it

Tvrđava Niš: 349 tries ÷ 946 shots	36.9 %
League mean, 16 clubs	32.1 %
Rank, 16 clubs	1st of 16

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Lucky or unlucky?

Shot-making

Points scored from the floor minus the points those shots are worth. Above zero is shooting better than the league does from the same shots, below zero is worse. Free throws are not shots and are not in it.

Over a night it is mostly luck, and the page calls it that: a few points either way is as expected. Over a season it settles, and a man far from zero is either a real finisher or a man whose luck will turn.

Rest or sharpen the man if it is persistently below zero; do not rebuild the attack on one hot night.

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Lucky so far

Your shots have paid off a little

+20.1

Over 7 games Tvrđava Niš's shots were worth 457.9 points and they scored 478 from the floor: 2.9 a game better than the league would do from the same shots.

+20.1

UnluckyAs expectedLucky

How we counted it

Points: 2 × 201 + 76	478
Expected points, the squad's shots added up	457.9
Shot-making	+20.1
A game	+2.87

Expected points are measured against league rates through round 15.

Tvrđava Niš
Kind of shot	Shots	Worth	Points
Mid-range · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 295	10	0.88	8.8
Mid-range · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 295	3	0.88	2.6
Mid-range · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 44 % of 295	4	0.88	3.5
Mid-range · Post-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 40 % of 212	13	0.79	10.3
Mid-range · Catch and shootonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 253	8	0.84	6.7
Mid-range · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 42 % of 253	1	0.84	0.8
Mid-range · Pull-up41 % of 447 league shots	35	0.82	28.7
Mid-range · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 629	4	0.82	3.3
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 629	7	0.82	5.8
Mid-range · Pull-up · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 41 % of 629	1	0.82	0.8
Rim · Drive60 % of 1 038 league shots	60	1.20	72.1
Rim · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 666	9	1.26	11.3
Rim · Drive · fast break70 % of 419 league shots	25	1.39	34.8
Rim · Drive · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 63 % of 1 666	5	1.26	6.3
Rim · Post-up67 % of 294 league shots	11	1.33	14.7
Rim · Post-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 380	3	1.34	4.0
Rim · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 67 % of 380	1	1.34	1.3
Rim · Catch and shoot66 % of 279 league shots	16	1.31	21.0
Rim · Catch and shoot · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 439	3	1.29	3.9
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 439	7	1.29	9.1
Rim · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 439	1	1.29	1.3
Rim · Pull-uponly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 212	6	1.29	7.7
Rim · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 212	2	1.29	2.6
Rim · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 65 % of 212	3	1.29	3.9
Three · Driveonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 219	10	0.97	9.7
Three · Drive · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 219	1	0.97	1.0
Three · Drive · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 32 % of 219	7	0.97	6.8
Three · Post-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the zone's rate: 37 % of 2 861	1	1.11	1.1
Three · Catch and shoot37 % of 1 570 league shots	98	1.10	107.9
Three · Catch and shoot · second chance40 % of 255 league shots	14	1.20	16.8
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break39 % of 291 league shots	18	1.18	21.1
Three · Catch and shoot · fast break · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 37 % of 2 158	4	1.12	4.5
Three · Pull-up38 % of 354 league shots	16	1.14	18.2
Three · Pull-up · second chanceonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 473	2	1.09	2.2
Three · Pull-up · fast breakonly a few league shots like it, so the same play from the same zone: 36 % of 473	3	1.09	3.3
Total adds up	412	1.11	457.9

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Where Tvrđava Niš shoot

Shots by zone

Every shot of the match as a dot: filled when it went in, hollow when it missed, with a bar through it when it was blocked. How far from the ring each shot was is the match record. The side of the floor it came from is drawn for the picture, the same way the replay stages it, so every reader sees the same dot and no dot claims a spot the game never recorded. The three zones, rim, mid-range and three, count the dots and add up to the box score.

A zone is warm when the club shot at least five points better than the league does from there, cool when that much worse. Filtering by man, quarter or result recounts the zones from the dots shown, so every number is a count of what is on the court.

Shape the attack toward the zone where your men shoot best: the tactics page moves shots between the rim, the mid-range and the three.

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Every shot this season

412 of 412 shots shown

48.8%

201 of 412 from the floor, 7 league games

Made
Missed
Regular season only. The same games as the league table and the wins the points say. The side of the floor is drawn for the picture.

Shots by zone

Tinted against the league

RIM 91 / 152 60% · avg 2.0 ft 53 of the 91 makes assisted league 64% 182pts

MID 34 / 86 40% · avg 14.8 ft 16 of the 34 makes assisted league 42% 68pts

THREE 76 / 174 44% · avg 25.1 ft 70 of the 76 makes assisted league 36% 228pts

201 of 412 from the floor, 478 points, + 150 from the line

The dots cover 7 of 15 league games; earlier games have no shot record.

139 of 201 makes were assisted (69%): 53 + 16 + 70.

One man's season is on his player page, under Where he shoots.

Shot quality is counted from the 7 games whose streams are stored, of 15 played.

More statsTrends, shot mix, the squad's shooters

Trends

Net rating

Offence

Shooting %

Dots are games, the line is the five-game mean, the dashed line is the league. All 15 games are counted.

Where the shots came from

RimMid-rangeThree

Tvrđava Niš

37% 21% 42%

League

39% 20% 41%

DrivePost-upCatch and shootPull-up

Tvrđava Niš

33% 41% 19%

League

31% 9% 41% 19%

How we counted it

Tvrđava Niš: drives + post-ups + catch and shoot + pull-ups	134 drives + 29 post-ups + 170 catch and shoot + 79 pull-ups = 412

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Best shot-makers

Expected points

The points the league gets from shots like this one this season: the zone, the play, whether it came on the break and whether it came on a second chance. It does not know who was guarding or how far out he stood, because the game records neither. A club's expected points are the sum over its shots, and every figure opens to the kinds of shot it is made of.

It is a measure, not a rule: nothing in a match depends on it. It tells shot selection (how good the shots were) apart from shot-making (what the men did with them), so a bad night reads as bad luck or bad shots rather than just a bad night.

Take more of the shots the league scores most from, the rim and the open three, and fewer long pull-ups; the tactics page moves shots between them.

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Boban Černigoj SF 20 y

Strong61–80

Age: 20
Potential: Elite (81–99)
Form: -0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

38/68 shots 74.6 expected 90 scored ▲ +15.4

Arno Grbić SG 25 y

Strong61–80

Age: 25
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: 0.2
Contract ends: End of season 3

36/67 shots 75.3 expected 90 scored ▲ +14.7

Thilo Kessler SF 23 y

Strong61–80

Age: 23
Potential: Strong (61–80)
Form: -0.1
Contract ends: End of season 1

24/52 shots 59.3 expected 58 scored ▼ −1.3

A man is listed from 50 shots.